McCain up by 7 in Missouri

[woolldog]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5d6f10cf-ec7e-4ef1-8abd-f798bb64c79b

A new SurveyUSA poll shows John McCain taking a decent lead in one battleground state: Missouri.

The numbers: McCain 50%, Obama 43%, with a ±4.3% margin of error. Three weeks ago, Obama had a statistically insignificant lead of 45%-43%. The race here has a very stark gender gap: Men go for McCain 60%-36%, and women for Obama 50%-41%.

This state has 11 electoral votes, and has voted for the winner in every presidential election over the last 100 years except for 1956.

[Hope And Change]

1. WTF??I thought Obama was leading in Missouri???

[sharp_stick]

7. K & R on a poll?

how odd, how very odd

[woolldog]

12. I don't see anything odd about that. n/t

[sharp_stick]

10. Ahh now changing headers

very nice

[Hope And Change]

17. LOL!Are you stalking me????

[woolldog]

65. you have a fan, apparently.

haha

[TheDebbieDee]

16. Don't worry......if Dems turnout for Obama in

Kansas City and St. Louis in November (and we will), Obama will take Missouri. But it might be close.

We don't have to worry about the Sec of State stealing a close one for the repukes this time, though. Our Sec of State is a Democrat. In fact, I think she's a Carnahan.

[Hope And Change]

22. I see.Thanks for the info.

[Carrieyazel]

45. When has Obama led in Missouri? Being up by 1 point in a couple of polls

is not really leading in a state.

[Hope And Change]

63. I read in another thread that Obama was leading with 7 points.But it turned out to be wrong...

It was McLame that was leading with 7 points.Anyway, my bad for not reading woolldog`s entire article.Sorry.

[Hope And Change]

2. Sorry for the dupe.Delete.

[woolldog]

3. lol

:D

[dempartisan23]

4. it may be time to worry

obama seems to be boxed in on the energy issue. i said a week ago he should have come out for more drilling before mccain did. alot of the polls seem to be suspect right now though.

[sharp_stick]

5. Thanks for the 'concern'

now back to our regularly scheduled programming.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

6. Oh, I'm very concerned.

I'm just going to give up now and move to Canada.

[LowerManhattanite]

8. LOL...

Get it all outta yer system, kid. :)

[woolldog]

11. I'm not worried because

I haven't had him winning MO since the Wright incident. His small lead there in the last couple of polls were more a result of McCain weakness than Obama's strength. Obama's support has been relatively stable in the mid 40s while McCain's has fluctuated.

My thoughts on MO previously:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6303857&mesg_id=6305959

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6298380&mesg_id=6299012

[Radical Activist]

32. I don't see anything in those links but your reading of the polls.

But all the polls show Obama within striking distance of winning. I also wonder if the polls will account for increased black turnout and in towns bordering Illinois. You also have to consider the trend of Obama going up in the polls consistently since he started running.

[woolldog]

33. Yeah, exactly. It's my analysis of the polls.

I said it a while ago, and I'm being proven correct. And there aren't even enough undecideds to swing the state anymore. He doesn't appear to have the votes to crack 50%

edit: As for increased black turnout, the SurveyUSA poll has blacks at 12% of the electorate. In 2004 blacks were 8% of the electorate in MO. So it's factoring in a high % increase in AA turnout.

[Radical Activist]

34. Its over 4 months away.

Its too early to call the election based on polls.
And he may win with 47% if Barr gets a few points.

[woolldog]

39. true, it is 4 months away.

But the electorate appears to be pretty polarized already, with a large % of voters having either very positive feelings about Obama or very negative. I've noticed this elsewhere. That's why I don't think these numbers will change much. There's a bit of a ceiling (and a floor for that matter) on his numbers because of the strong feelings.

[me b zola]

14. That would be shooting himself in the foot. He already has won this issue

The oil barrens have the leases to drill on millions of acres off shore...and they haven't made a move in years to do so. Why would giving them more produce a different result?

One good ad on this topic puts this issue squarely in the pocket of Obama, but quite frankly I believe he already owns this issue.

Have a nice day.

[maxsolomon]

15. "oil barrens". i like that.

very poetic.

[woolldog]

18. I'm not convinced he "own this issue"

First of all I don't think that idea--that offshore drilling wouldn't effect the price of gas in the short term--has been articulated well.

Second, I don't think Obama has offered many positive ideas on how he would lower the price of gas in the short term. He's simply knocked down a lot of other people's proposals. I think he needs to start offering a positive vision on this issue.

That said, I don't think the issue has much to do with Obama's lagging numbers in Missouri.

[me b zola]

37. But is there really any way to lower the prices short-term?

McCain certainly has not put forth any idea that would lower gas prices in the short term. Most "experts" agree that there is no magic bullet.

I do agree with you that Obama's current polling in MO has little or nothing to do with the price of oil.

[woolldog]

43. I don't know.

But McCain sure has people thinking that opening up offshore drilling would do that.

[Name removed]

52. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[woolldog]

66. Doesn't quite sound that way to me.

It sounds more like he's saying to take these lemons (high gas prices) and make lemonade. The interviewer suggested high gas prices are good. Obama was careful not to agree, but to say that we should take this as an opportunity to do X, Y, and Z....

that was my quick take on the clip

[Radical Activist]

19. Bull

There's no public demand for more drilling. Just the corporate Republicans shills and their talk radio zombie listeners.

[AZ Criminal JD]

38. 67% of the public support more drilling, 64% think it will lower prices.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/67_support_offshore_drilling_64_expect_it_will_lower_prices But you just keep whistling past the graveyard.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

41. Hey, remember when most of the country thought the Iraq war was a good thing?

Obama has clearly said what experts (who aren't on the oil companies payrolls) have said. Drilling will not accomplish ANYTHING.

[AZ Criminal JD]

42. Yes I remember that.

I even remember reading a Chicago Tribune article in July, 2004 when Obama said his position on Iraq wasn't much different than George's Bush's at that point. Since you you brought that issue up. However I was replying to the poster who said there was no public support for drilling. Whether you agree or not with drilling that position is false. Deal with it. BTW since drilling will "not accomplish anything" should we stop all drilling? If not, why not?

[SemiCharmedQuark]

48. This is about the truth. The truth is that opening up more lands for drilling will not lower gas

prices, which is, according to you, the reason that people support drilling for oil.

[AZ Criminal JD]

53. Not according to me or the poll.

A reading comp course would help you. The poll said people thought gas prices would go down if there was drilling. That doesn't mean that is why they support. I didn't give an opinion either way. Just reported the poll. You have given a statement with a conclusion built into it that drilling will not lower gas prices. However you didn't give any evidence. That flunks.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

59. From the EIA: "not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or

prices"

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/ongr.html

Here are some links for you:


Business Week:
"Oil: New Drilling Wouldn't Cut Prices"

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jun2008/db20080619_412349.htm?campaign_id=rss_topStories

Cnn:Money:

"Drilling our way out of rising oil prices"
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/30/news/economy/oil_drilling/index.htm?postversion=2008053011

Time Magazine:

A 2004 study by the government's Energy Information Administration (EIA) found that drilling in ANWR would trim the price of gas by 3.5 cents a gallon by 2027. (If oil prices continue to skyrocket, the savings would be greater, but not by much.)

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1815884,00.html

[AZ Criminal JD]

72. Again why do any drilling? If so, where?

Whose land gets to be polluted and destroyed to satisfy you?

[SemiCharmedQuark]

74. Well, Illinois has no oil, so it really is not about me.

The oil companies already own swaths of land that they have chosen not to develop. They are squatting.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

49. Also, here's a nice article countering the smear against Obama RE: that quote

http://mediamatters.org/items/200801140002

[AZ Criminal JD]

54. Again, reading comp fails you.

In my post I said "at that point" which is what that article is about. Another than that the article is an attempt to change history. That flunks in my book.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

58. LOL at the guy giving people Fs while posting "Another than that"

Super!

[book_worm]

23. Were you worried by all the other polls showing Obama leading in several key states or is MO the

only one which counts?

[dempartisan23]

36. here is what i think

if obama is ahead by 28 in california then he and mccain cant be tied nationally like gallup says. obama would be way ahead. also, if mccain is up by 7 in missouri then mccain would be way ahead nationally. the polls dont make alot of sense right now.

[zulchzulu]

9. Obama will win MO by 5% in the GE

It will be close, but he'll scoot away...

[Carrieyazel]

46. Only if rural MO is barred from voting that day. It isn't going to happen.

If anything, he likely loses by 5 to McLame.

[maxsolomon]

13. Missouri is West West Virginia

I'm not throwing stones, as i'm from Southwest Ohio, AKA North Kentucky.

BHO won't take em all - racism is real.

[TheDebbieDee]

21. Phuck you!

And the horse you got dragged by......... West West Virginia, my @$$ ;)

[Radical Activist]

26. Except that it borders Illinois and has a large black population.

Obama has a great shot at winning MO.

[book_worm]

20. This is a little bit of water in the face that we have to be realistic

the polls have been good and Obama will win but it's not going to be a cake walk like some think.

[AllentownJake]

24. Polls are all over the map

Hard to trust any of them.

One week up by 12 in PA than up by 4 the next week. 8% drop in one week?

They are saying in 3 weeks with no major negative event there was a 10 point swing for McCain?

I question all the polls at this point.

[and-justice-for-all]

68. Indeed! nt

[Radical Activist]

25. Looking Good.

What this and the last poll show is that Obama can win Missouri and it will be a battleground state. There's no need to get too excited about each individual poll and how much up or down it is, as long as we're within striking distance.

[woolldog]

27. No. He's very weak in MO.

I don't see him winning that state. I wouldn't write it off, but it's not gonna happen.

[Radical Activist]

28. Why?

Any specific reason for your negativity?

[woolldog]

30. these reasons:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6410425&mesg_id=6410480

[JackORoses]

55. woolly has been negative for quite awhile now

yet he sports an Obama logo.

Pay no mind to his 'concern'.

[woolldog]

61. I'm not concerned.

I haven't had MO in Obama's probably win column since March.

[Arugula Latte]

56. So you wouldn't write it off, but yet it's hopeless?

That sounds like writing it off. :rofl:

Thanks for you negativity, though.

[woolldog]

60. Nah. It's important to force McCain to defend it.

Plus Obama can't be seen as giving up in such a "pivotal" state. But at this point Indiana and many other states look more promising.

Why not focus on driving McCain's negatives up there and hope the enthusiasm gap works its magic because I think he's near his ceiling of support.

[me b zola]

29. I hope he campaigns in Jefferson City

It is the capitol and the home of Lincoln University, a historically Black college. Langston Hughes used to "hang out" at the "bottom of the hill" (an LU expression) with other prominent AA intellectuals and writers. JC also is more central than Columbia to many--many--small towns and burgs. He could really make some inroads with enough small towners to make a difference.

Columbia is a college town, but if Obama has to choose between the two, I really hope he chooses JC.

[Missouri Girl]

73. I hope so too

I live in JC and I'd love for my kids to see him. I took them to see Kerry/Edwards in '04. They had the event at the Capitol - awesome backdrop.

I'm not worried. I think they are picking up a lot of the fundy vote in SW Mo. On the ground in JC and in KC where I'm originally from and where my family still is, I am seeing a lot of former Repubs saying they are voting for Obama. Gun-totin', fishing blue collar guys.

I personally believe that Jay Nixon running for Gov (and his high poll numbers) combined with Obama/McCain will suppress a lot of the fundy vote. I really do.

[Bake]

31. Obama can win, but it's NOT going to be the landslide many here predict

Confidence is good, overconfidence is fatal.

Bake

[Carrieyazel]

47. He has an outside shot in MO, but I really doubt he can win it.

He should campaign there, but it looks like its leaning McCain.

[thewiseguy]

35. 15% of the Liberals in Missouri are voting for McCain?

[Gore1FL]

62. Missouri turns on St,Louis and Kansas City

If the turnout is good in both, and especially the 1st and 3rd congressional districts, (and marginally weak in the 2nd), it can easily go blue.

[ieoeja]

40. I got a Rightie email about off-shore drilling.

My reply-to0all discussed the long lines we are NOT seeing at the gas stations. There is no shortage. OPEC increased production to make up for the decrease out of Iraq (which was only permitted limited production before we conquered her anyway). The increase in price is purely an artificial construct of the energy marketers which will disappear the second the president suggests he is going to have the DoJ investigate the marketers.

And that will not happen so long as the president is a Republican. McCain has made it clear that he is going to leave the same people in charge of domestic matters that are in charge now.

That said, we should look at regulating the energy market -- the energy market is exempt from regulations concerning other commodities; not just in the US, but throughout the entire world -- to prevent this from happening again.

It would also have the added benefit of putting a big hurt on the Republican Party. But that is not a legitimate reason for government action.

[Robbins]

44. Remember

Surveu USA had Hillary winning Missouri by double digets during the primary.Obama won by 1.They had
Hillary winning Kansas City Obama actully won Kansas City.I am skepitical on polls from them regarding Missouri for this reason.Let's also remember some polls In 2006 at this time had Jim
Talent winnining reelection as senator.Many polls underestimate Obama's support among Blacks(No way
Mccain Is getting Into the teens of percent of Black Voters) and the younger voters(No way he will
actully tied Obama In any state with young Voters) and If the floodings In the midwest come Into play let's point out Mccain solution Is states are on their own.He needs national guard for 100 years In Iraq and only want to spend tax money on Military and tax cuts.

[woolldog]

50. Some caveats regarding this poll (noted elsewhere--not my own thoughts)

--It has Obama losing Kansas City, which Kerry won handily.

--It has Obama winning St. Louis only 52-45.

These may not be realistic numbers.

[Terran]

70. That's definitely not realistic.

He'll win KC easily, and St. Louis by a bigger margin than that. He'll win Columbia. Springfield is dubious, but as it grows bigger it's tipping more toward being blue, so that could be close. It's the rest of the state that's tough, as it's all rural. Sometimes I think a lot of people here are deaf and blind to the failures of the republicans, both Bush and Blunt, especially in the rural areas, but I'm also thinking that things like $4 gas will help tip some support to Obama. To be honest, though, there's a lot of racism in rural Missouri, and that will be tough to overcome.

[thatsrightimirish]

51. i smell a michael j fox ad

but in all seriousness let's just relax a little. It is not even July yet. If you get worked up over the polls now you may not be in great health come October.

[scarface2004]

57. what did hillary say about iran?!?!

we have to annihilate them!!!

[SoCalDem]

64. Whew! Aren't we lucky that it's not November

:rofl:

[and-justice-for-all]

67. Polls, like this one, should not be taken seriuosly...

the majority of Polls are biased and can be made to saw whatever the pollster wants it say.

Do not let them get you worked up.

[woolldog]

69. I'm not worked up.

Just passing it along...

[1776Forever]

71. Pairings for VP choice important data for Missouri voters from SurveyUSA site: