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Um, the new SurveyUSA poll for MO is a crock, here is why.

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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-25-08 09:42 PM
Original message
Um, the new SurveyUSA poll for MO is a crock, here is why.
It shows McCain winning the KC area 44% - 39%. As a long time student of Missouri politics and someone who has correctly predicted races here in the past:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4420528&mesg_id=4420528

He will beat McCain in the KC region, trust me. He may lose the state but no way in hell he will lose KC. Obama won KC region/Jackson Co by 55% over Clinton, McCain lost it to Romney. McCaskill won it by 62% in 2006, Kerry won it by 58%. Not going to happen.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5d6f10cf-ec7e-4ef1-8abd-f798bb64c79b
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TheDonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-25-08 10:13 PM
Response to Original message
1. Interesting perspective worth noting
thanks
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Upton Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-25-08 10:15 PM
Response to Original message
2. I don't know
according to wikipedia KC is 54.68% white so 44%-39% might not be that out of the question.
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-25-08 10:30 PM
Response to Reply #2
7. I would fill by britches.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-25-08 10:16 PM
Response to Original message
3. All the polls are all over the map
As an auditor I understand sampling error and statistics as well as these pollsters.

A sample that size for an area that big is not in the confidence interval that I would accept to provide any assurance on my testing.
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PM7nj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-25-08 10:19 PM
Response to Original message
4. SUSA MO 2/3: Clinton 54% - Obama 43%
Edited on Wed Jun-25-08 10:20 PM by PM7nj
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-25-08 10:20 PM
Response to Original message
5. Especially if he picks Tim Kaine, a Kansas City native, for his VP!!
Sorry, I couldn't help myself.

But seriously, influence on two swing states? Tim Kaine has powerful Kung Fu.
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shifting_sands Donating Member (277 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-25-08 10:30 PM
Response to Original message
6. KC will not go GOP
I am from KC,Mo and believe me the GOP will NOT carry that city.
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PresidentObama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-25-08 11:25 PM
Response to Original message
8. As a Missourian, McCain is going to have to fight for Missouri. He won't take KC or St. Louis..
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