6/25 Election Model: OBAMA on a 360 EV roll, but there's a catch...

[tiptoe]

2008 ELECTION MODEL
A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation


TruthIsAll

Updated: June 25   

  State Poll Aggregate and projection trend

  National 5-Poll moving average projection

  Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

  Battleground state polls

  Electoral vote and win probability trend

  Electoral vote and projected vote share trend

  Undecided voter allocation and win probability

  Battleground state win probability

  Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

"I'm glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list."  — Sancho

Last
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected
Win

6/25/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
EV
Prob%

Obama
McCain
46.3
42.8
49.0
40.8
52.9
47.1
55.1
44.9
360
178
100.0
0.0

    

10-Poll

Last Poll

Sample

 

NATIONAL MODEL

 

5-Poll Mov Avg

 

5-Poll MA, 2-party Proj

Trend
                      
Bloomberg
Rasmussen
Gallup
USA Today
Newsweek

FOX
Rasmussen
Gallup
ABC/WP
COOK/RT

Date
        
6/23
6/23
6/23
6/19
6/18

6/18
6/18
6/17
6/15
6/15

Size
              
1115 RV
3000 LV
2587 RV
1310 LV
896 RV

900 RV
3000 LV
2605 RV
--
880 RV

 

Obama
        
49
49
46
50
51

45
48
47
49
44

McCain
        
37
44
43
44
36

41
45
42
45
40

Spread
        
12
5
3
6
15

4
3
5
4
4

 

Obama
        
49.0
48.2
48.0
48.2
48.0

46.6
47.0
46.8
46.2
45.0

McCain
        
40.8
41.6
41.8
41.6
41.8

42.6
42.8
42.0
42.0
41.0

 

Obama
        
55.1
54.3
54.1
54.3
54.1

53.1
53.1
53.5
53.3
53.4

McCain
        
44.9
45.7
45.9
45.7
45.9

46.9
46.9
46.5
46.7
46.6

Diff
        
10.2
8.6
8.2
8.6
8.2

6.2
6.2
7.0
6.6
6.8

 

If the election was held today, the Election Model projects Obama would win an expected  360 – 178  EV.
The state projection model gives him 52.9% of the 2-party vote (polling data from electoral-vote.com).
The national model indicates he would win 55.1% (polling data from RCP).

Obama leads the aggregate state poll weighted average by 46.3 – 42.8%.
Obama leads the national 5-poll unweighted average by 49.0 – 40.8%.

These key battleground states are projected to flip to Obama:    CO,  IA,  MO,  NM,  OH,  VA,  NC,  FL,  GA,  IN  (new)

But there’s a catch: It’s called Election Fraud.

The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.
They need massive new voter registration and GOTV to overcome the fraud.

In 2004, Kerry easily won the True Vote, but BushCo stole the election with a 48% approval rating.
Now McCain supports the most unpopular president in history — with 25% approval.

In a true democracy, this would be a slam dunk for Obama.

• But approximately 3–4 million Obama votes will be uncounted (70–80%).
  
• And don't forget vote-switching at the DREs and central tabulators.

View the latest state/ national polling and corresponding popular and electoral vote projections below.

The expected electoral vote is the average of the 5000 election trial simulation.
Obama won all 5000 trials, therefore there is a virtual 100% probability he will win the electoral vote.

The model executes five undecided voter scenarios, 5000 trials for each.
In the most likely base case, 60% of undecided voters were allocated to Obama.
In the worst case, 50% were allocated and he had a 51.8% share, 325 EV and 98.8% win probability.

Obama’s win probability in each state is calculated by the Excel NORMDIST function.
Input to NORMDIST is Obama’s projected 2-party vote share and the 4% margin of error.

• For example, in Florida, Obama is tied with McCain in the latest polls at 45%.
  Obama is projected to win the 2-party vote by 51-49%.
  His probability of winning is 69%: =NORMDIST (.51, .50, .04/1.96, TRUE)

The 2008 Election Calculator determined that Obama will win a 71-59m landslide (54 - 45%).
The model calculates the True Vote based on the following returning and new voter estimates:

• 2004 recorded vote, mortality, uncounted votes, 2004 voter turnout in 2008 and estimated vote shares.
  
• The 2004 True Vote used the 12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares applied to returning and new voters:
  (2000 recorded vote + uncounted votes - voter deaths) * 2000 voter turnout + new 2004 voters.

The 2004 Election Model produced an amazing confirmation of the state and national models.

• Both models projected Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.
  
• Both assumed that Kerry would win 75% of the undecided vote.
  The final national 5-poll projection average was 51.76%.
  The final national 18-poll projection average was 51.63%.

Other links:
2008 Election Model
2004 Election Model Review
Election Forecasting Methodology
2004 Registered Voter (RV) vs. Likely Voter (LV) Polls

Confirmation of A Kerry Landslide
Election Fraud Analytics and Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Excel Models available for download:
The Election Calculator: 1988-2004
2004 Interactive Simulation Model
A Polling Simulation Model
2000-2004 County Vote Database

Aggregate State and National Polls and Projections 
Undecided allocation effect on projected vote share, EV and win probability

THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL

Last
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected
Win

6/25/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
EV
Prob%

Obama
McCain
46.3
42.8
49.0
40.8
52.9
47.1
55.1
44.9
360
178
100.0
0.0



Undecided Voter Allocation %
 
 
BaseCase
Obama
50%               55%               60%               65%               70%

Trial Wins
4938              4992              4999              5000              5000


 

Projected Vote Share
Obama
51.8               52.3               52.9               53.4               53.9

McCain
48.2               47.7               47.1               46.6               46.1


 

Win Prob %
Obama
98.76              99.84             99.98            100.0            100.0

McCain
 1.24                0.16               0.02                0.0                0.0


 

Electoral Vote
Average
325                343                358                373                386

Median
325                344                359                374                388

Maximum
399                411                419                438                456

Minimum
236                256                262                293                302


 

95% Conf. Interval
Upper Limit
373                388                401                411                421

Lower Limit
277                298                316                334                350


 

States Won
  27                  29                  30                  32                  33

 

2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS

State Model

 
 
State Polls Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation
 
Projection
Win
Trial
Flip to
 
Total

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
       
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
       
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
       
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
       
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
       
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
       
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
       
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
       
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
       
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
       
EV
 538 
       
9
3
10
6
55
       
9
7
3
3
27
       
15
4
4
21
11
       
7
6
8
9
4
       
10
12
17
10
6
       
11
3
5
5
4
       
15
5
31
15
3
       
20
7
7
21
4
       
8
3
11
34
5
       
3
13
11
5
10
3
       
Obama
 46.5 % 
       	
33
41
28
40
53

43
47
90
50
45

43
61
39
60
48

47
37
41
41
55

52
53
48
50
44

43
39
36
42
51

47
47
51
43
38

46
38
48
46
53

39
34
31
39
31

63
45
55
37
51
40
 
McCain
 43.0 % 
       
59
45
38
47
41

41
44
9
41
45

44
31
52
31
47

42
47
53
50
33

39
30
39
43
50

42
47
52
45
39

39
39
34
45
44

43
52
45
42
38

48
51
58
52
55

29
44
40
45
40
53
      
Diff
 3.6 %  
      
(26)
(4)
(10)
(7)
12 
 
2 
3 
81 
9 
0 
 
(1)
30 
(13)
29 
1 
 
5 
(10)
(12)
(9)
22 
 
13 
23 
9 
7 
(6)
 
1 
(8)
(16)
(3)
12 
 
8 
8 
17 
(2)
(6)
 
3 
(14)
3 
4 
15 
 
(9)
(17)
(27)
(13)
(24)
 
34 
1 
15 
(8)
11 
(13)
       
BO EV
 328 
       




55

9
7
3
3



4

21
11

7



4

10
12
17
10


11



4

15
5
31



20

7
21
4







3
13
11

10

 
    
 	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
         
Obama
 52.8 % 
       
37.8
49.4
48.4
47.8
56.6

52.6
52.4
90.6
55.4
51.0

50.8
65.8
44.4
65.4
51.0

53.6
46.6
44.6
46.4
62.2

57.4
63.2
55.8
54.2
47.6

52.0
47.4
43.2
49.8
57.0

55.4
55.4
60.0
50.2
48.8

52.6
44.0
52.2
53.2
58.4

46.8
43.0
37.6
44.4
39.4

67.8
51.6
58.0
47.8
56.4
44.2
 
Probability
 100.0 % 
       
0.0
38.2
21.2
13.6
100.0

90.3
88.5
100.0
99.7
69.1

65.5
100.0
0.3
100.0
69.1

96.4
4.5
0.3
3.6
100.0

100.0
100.0
99.8
98.2
11.5

84.1
9.7
0.0
46.0
100.0

99.7
99.7
100.0
54.0
27.4

90.3
0.1
86.4
94.5
100.0

5.5
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0

100.0
78.8
100.0
13.6
99.9
0.2
       
EV
 385 





55

9
7
3
3
27

15
4

21
11

7



4

10
12
17
10


11



4

15
5
31
15


20

7
21
4







3
13
11

10

    
       
Obama
  10  
 






Obama



Obama

Obama



Obama

Obama











Obama






Obama

Obama


Obama












Obama




    

        

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO
CT
DC
DE
FL

GA
HI
ID
IL
IN

IA
KS
KY
LA
ME

MD
MA
MI
MN
MS

MO
MT
NE
NV
NH

NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND

OH
OK
OR
PA
RI

SC
SD
TN
TX
UT

VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
National Model

10-Poll
Last Poll
Sample
 
 
 
5-poll Moving Average
Projection Moving Average

Trend
                          
Bloomberg
Rasmussen
Gallup
USA Today
Newsweek

FOX 
Rasmussen
Gallup
ABC/WP
COOK/RT
Date
        
6/23
6/23
6/23
6/19
6/18

6/18
6/18
6/17
6/15
6/15
Size
              
1115RV
3000 LV
2587 RV
1310 LV
896 RV

900 RV
3000 LV
2605 RV
--
880 RV
Obama
        
49
49
46
50
51

45
48
47
49
44
McCain
        
37
44
43
44
36

41
45
42
45
40
Spread
        
12 
5 
3 
6 
15 

4 
3 
5 
4 
4 
Obama
        
49.0
48.2
48.0
48.2
48.0

46.6
47.0
46.8
46.2
45.0
McCain
        
40.8
41.6
41.8
41.6
41.8

42.6
42.8
42.0
42.0
41.0
Obama
        
55.1
54.3
54.1
54.3
54.1

53.1
53.1
53.5
53.3
53.4
McCain
        
44.9
45.7
45.9
45.7
45.9

46.9
46.9
46.5
46.7
46.6
Diff
        
10.2
8.6
8.2
8.6
8.2

6.2
6.2
7.0
6.6
6.8
 
 

 

 

[Hydra]

1. Thanks for posting this

I keep telling people it's not the vote we have to worry about- anyone could beat McCain right now.

It's the problem of getting those votes counted. They can flip any number of people we can sign up.

We could win by 20 million, and CNN would report 51%/49% for McCain.

[tiptoe]

3. yep -- Here's one expert echoing what you speak:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6383315&mesg_id=6383866

Too many activists don't recognize that TIA -- unlike other pollsters and media pundits -- qualifies his projections and predictions ("warns" is more the truth, since he's researched election fraud extensively).

[kster]

7. Breaking the silence of the Democratic & Republican organized crime family

is the biggest hurdle we face, AUDITS? that just keeps the counting of ballots in the hands of the two crime families.

K&R

[tiptoe]

8. and

how does auditing sample/count the provisional ballots that seem not to be systematically collected, e.g. in New York, when voters who might experience problems with Levers are given "provisional" "ballots" on which to record their vote?

[tiptoe]

9. k

[kster]

10. They need to melt the levers down along with the touchscreens

both are paperless, and both are unAmerican optical scanned paper ballots can work only if the people do a hand count of the ballots BEFORE THE BALLOTS LEAVE the neighborhood
"The reason? Machines can sometimes misread or fail to detect the way ballots are cast, and when there are serious doubts, checking the machine count with a careful hand count is accepted far and wide as the best way to know the true intentions of the voters"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x469812

[Hippo_Tron]

2. Can you post the map next time?

Easier for us skimmers...

[tiptoe]

4. In lieu of a map, check out the two battleground state charts (current and projection) at the top:

[phrigndumass]

5. 12 million vote lead, terrific!

K/R for an awesome analysis.

Also noticed the electoral vote predictor of 360-178. I'm seeing 352-186 right now after today's polls, so I'm happy to see we're in the same ballpark! Let's fist jab our coneys like terrorists.

:hi:

[bleever]

6. Purple, here we come.

Deep purple.

K&R.