"McCain has a single path to the presidency, while Obama has several different routes."

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
06/27/2008
The Line: Sorting Out the Presidential Playing Field

Less than five months remain before the November election and slowly but surely the outlines of the national playing field are coming into focus.

To wit:

*Barack Obama is showing that his pledge to broaden the traditional playing field is more than just rhetoric, airing his first ad of the general election -- a 60-second commercial re-introducing him to voters -- in 18 states, including states like Alaska, North Carolina and Georgia that have been long left off of Democratic target lists at the presidential level. Obama's decision to forego public financing in the general election means that, in theory, he will have the money necessary to run sustained television and grassroots campaigns in 18 to 24 states in the fall.

* John McCain envisions a smaller and more traditional playing field, and is launching ads in 10 states -- including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan -- that have been at the center of the Republican fight for the White House in the last several presidential elections.

* New battleground surveys conducted for washingtonpost.com by Quinnipiac University seem to suggest that Wisconsin, which John Kerry won with 50 percent in 2004, and Minnesota, which Kerry won with 51 percent, may not be nearly as competitive this fall. Obama leads McCain by 17 points in Minnesota and 13 points in Wisconsin -- substantial gaps that the Arizona senator will likely whittle down but struggle to erase.

These recent developments suggest that McCain has a single path to the presidency, while Obama has several different routes he could take to the White House.

For McCain, the battleground states must remain essentially unchanged from 2004. On that limited playing field, McCain must win a state or two -- Michigan and Pennsylvania being the best options -- that Kerry carried in 2004 while not losing any other large state that was in the Bush column in 2004. For Obama, he has the potential to win the race with either a traditional or non traditional playing field. In a traditional state-by-state fight, Obama must replicate the Kerry victories in 2004 and add states like Iowa, New Mexico and maybe even Ohio to his side of the ledger. In a less traditional battle, Obama can cobble together the 270 votes through a combination of wins in reliably Democratic territory and victories in unexpected places like Montana and North Carolina....

The states Line is below. The number one ranked state is the most likely to switch its presidential voting preference....

(NOTE: The states most likely to switch, in 10-1 order, are Florida to Dem, Virginia to Dem, Pennsylvania to GOP, NH to GOP, Colorado to Dem, Michigan to GOP, Ohio to Dem, Nevada to Dem, NM to Dem, Iowa to Dem.)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/06/the_line_positioning_the_playi.html#more

[pinto]

1. Interesting assessments.

Thanks for the post.

[Gabi Hayes]

6. but MEANINGLESS.. ..what a joke

fricking dukakis had like a fifteen point lead as this point, or right after the convention, which is even later in the endless campaign

NOBODY but Karl Rove has any idea what they've got up their sleeves

just watch things change, and some nauseating piece of swiftboat bullpock will appear from left field

I wouldn't be surprised if it's a Sinclair sort of thing, made up of whole cloth....maybe an Obama/Hillary affair; why not? they're trying to get body language "experts" to say they don't like each other because H looks too impassive, and their nods to each other don't look quite sincere enough

any body see that git on CNN around 9:30 or so?

[uponit7771]

2. Looks good for Obama but the voter machine anomolies need to be overcome with higher numbers

[anonymous171]

5. I think that's why Obama should focus on several different key states.

They won't know which ones to steal.

[Cha]

3. And mccain limits himself further by

not doing weekends.

[DeepModem Mom]

4. Good point! nt