THE MATH Weekly – Saturday, June 28 – Obama 336, McCain 202

[phrigndumass]

Contents:
1. Current Projections
2. Electoral Votes
3. Strength of Electoral Votes
4. Popular Vote
5. Probabilities and Potentials
6. Poll Averages Comparison
7. Projected Win Index
8. The Week in Trading and Averages
9. This Week's State Polls
10. Links


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1. Current Projections


Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 336
McCain – 202
Barr – 0
Nader – 0
Needed to Win – 270


Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 60,011,962 … (47.2%) … (+6,540,206)
McCain – 53,471,756 … (42.1%)
Barr – 381,341 … (0.3%)
Nader – 127,875 … (0.1%)
Undecided – 13,109,406 … (10.3%)


Strength of Projection – 50.2%





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2. Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)

Obama continues to increase his electoral vote advantage this week, and currently leads McCain in my projection by 336 to 202. Earlier this morning, the Daily Widget post showed Obama leading 351 to 187. The Ohio poll released by Survey USA today (O-48, M-46) moved that state from the Strong Obama column to within the margin of error, thus lowering Obama's electoral vote projection.

















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3. Strength of Electoral Votes

The biggest difference this week in electoral vote strength is the drop of the number of electoral votes in the Strong McCain column. Obama is now within 9 points in Texas, making that a weak state for McCain. There are 124 electoral votes within the margin of error, or roughly 23%. This is an increase from last week, as Ohio moves back into the margin of error.








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4. Popular Vote

Obama is now projected to win over 60 million votes. This would be the most votes ever won by a Democratic candidate for President, and he now leads McCain by more than 6.5 million votes. Obama's percentage of overall popular votes (47.2%) is quickly approaching the final results of both Kerry (48.3%) and Gore (48.4%).











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5. Probabilities and Potentials

The difference between each candidate’s Potential Electoral Votes provides a keen insight into how they are doing against each other nationwide. Obama’s potential advantage is 71.0%, while McCain’s potential advantage is only 52.0%. The difference in potential advantages is Obama +19.0% (down from +20.3% last week).


Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 197 … (36.6%)
McCain – 71 … (13.2%)

Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 258 … (48.0%)
McCain – 156 … (29.0%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 382 … (71.0%)
McCain – 156 … (29.0%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 258 … (48.0%)
McCain – 280 … (52.0%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 467 … (86.8%)
McCain – 71 … (13.2%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 197 … (36.6%)
McCain – 341 … (63.4%)


“Highly Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling at >10% (Strong states only). “Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling beyond the margin of error (Strong and Weak states).

“Potential” electoral votes are the same as probable states, but then we add the states polling within the margin of error to give one candidate an advantage. In this scenario, one candidate takes the states where they are polling strong and weak, and also takes all the margin-of-error states.

“Blowout” electoral votes would give one candidate only their strong states (>10%) and the other candidate would win all the other states. An example would be if Obama were to win in all his base states, all the swing states, and all the states where McCain was polling weak.


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6. Poll Averages Comparison

Obama's current average of all the state polls (46.2%, up from 45.6% last week) surpasses Gore's final results from 2000 (46.1%) this week and is quickly closing in on Kerry's final results from 2004 (46.5%). There is just as much nationwide support for Obama this early in 2008 as there was when Gore won in 2000.


Comparison of Poll-Averages:
2008 Obama – 46.2%
2004 Kerry – 46.5% (Final)
2000 Gore – 46.1% (Final)
1996 Clinton – 48.0% (Final)
1992 Clinton – 42.1% (Final)





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7. Obama Projected Win Index (greater than zero is a projected win for Obama)








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8. The Week in Trading and Averages

Missouri is now trading blue for Obama at 52.50 and climbs 7.50 since last week. Indiana continues to gain steam for Obama, crossing into the 30's since last week. Both Colorado and New Mexico are now trading in the 70's for Obama, showing us that two-thirds of all traders believe Obama will win these states in November. The three top swing states for Obama right now are Iowa (81.50), Wisconsin (80.70) and Pennsylvania (78.00).

Gallup's daily tracking average for Obama is down from last week (-2), as is Real Clear Politics' poll average (-0.5). Rasmussen's daily tracking average is up 1 from last week for Obama.

Overall trading for Obama on Intrade and Rasmussen Markets seems to be leveling off, but both indexes remain in the 60's for Obama. The WEA Total reached a peak earlier this week at 665.30 (600.00 is a majority) and has now dropped back to 659.70. Obama is doing better than McCain overall in our 12 swing states by a margin of 54% to 46%.














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9. This Week's State Polls

Alaska - Obama 42, McCain 44, BARR 3 (Global Stragegy, 6/10, +/- 4.0)
California - Obama 58, McCain 30 (Rasmussen, 6/23, +/- 4.5)
Colorado - Obama 49, McCain 44 (Quinnipiac, 6/24, +/- 2.7)
Indiana - Obama 48, McCain 47 (Survey USA, 6/23, +/- 4.0)
Kansas - Obama 39, McCain 50 (Survey USA, 6/23, +/- 4.3)
Kentucky - Obama 35, McCain 51 (Rasmussen, 6/25, +/- 4.5)
Michigan - Obama 48, McCain 39 (Public Policy Polling, 6/22, +/- 4.1)
Michigan - Obama 48, McCain 42 (Quinnipiac, 6/24, +/- 2.6)
Minnesota - Obama 54, McCain 37 (Quinnipiac, 6/24, +/- 2.5)
Mississippi - Obama 44, McCain 50 (Rasmussen, 6/24, +/- 4.5)
Missouri - Obama 43, McCain 50 (Survey USA, 6/23, +/- 4.3)
Nebraska - Obama 36, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 6/23, +/- 4.5)
New Jersey - Obama 49, McCain 33 (Farleigh Dickinson, 6/23, +/- 4.0)
New Mexico - Obama 47, McCain 39 (Rasmussen, 6/19, +/- 4.5)
New Mexico - Obama 49, McCain 46 (Survey USA, 6/19, +/- 4.3)
Ohio - Obama 48, McCain 46 (Survey USA, 6/22, +/- 4.2)
Oregon - Obama 48, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 6/19, +/- 4.3)
Pennsylvania - Obama 46, McCain 42 (Rasmussen, 6/22, +/- 4.5)
Tennessee - Obama 36, McCain 51 (Rasmussen, 6/24, +/- 4.5)
Texas - Obama 38, McCain 43, BARR 1, NADER 1 (Texas Lyceum, 6/20, +/- 3.1)
Texas - Obama 39, McCain 48 (Rasmussen, 6/25, +/- 4.5)
Utah - Obama 29, McCain 57 (Dan Jones & Associates, 6/19, +/- 5.0)
Utah - Obama 33, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 6/19, +/- 4.5)
Washington - Obama 55, McCain 40 (Survey USA, 6/19, +/- 4.3)
Wisconsin - Obama 52, McCain 39 (Quinnipiac, 6/24, +/- 2.5)


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10. Links

THE MATH:
Read Last Week’s Edition
Monday’s Daily Widget
Tuesday’s Daily Widget
Wednesday’s Daily Widget
Thursday’s Daily Widget
Friday’s Daily Widget

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls


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Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[fight4my3sons]

1. Good morning, phrigndumass!

Max had this to say as he studied your pie chart's (he loves your math weekly) "So Obama's kicking butt!"

Have a good day! :)

[phrigndumass]

3. "So Obama's kicking butt" ... LOL!

Kids will speak the truth if you let them! :rofl:

:donut: Good morning f4m3s and Max! :hi:

[tekisui]

2. Knr!

Thanks again, phrign.

[phrigndumass]

4. Thanks tek!

Good morning :hi:

[phrigndumass]

5. I'm interested in your suggestions for these math posts ...

Am I showing too much information? (information flood)

Is the post too pic heavy? (loads slowly)

Are any of the charts or graphs redundant?

Would you like to see something included that isn't tracked or posted regularly?

Should I narrate more? (I usually like to leave it to others to draw their own opinions from the information provided here ... sometimes I learn from my readers)

Does something need more explanation?

Thanks to everyone for reading and responding! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

10. Don't change anything!

You're giving me a panic attack. :) If anything more explanation for the math dummies like me who are having their 5yr olds explaining the graphs to them in the morning over coffee. :silly:

[phrigndumass]

17. More explanation is very doable :)

:web: <--- Here's a digital Xanax for you (hehe) ...

The last thing I want these posts to be is difficult to understand. Basic and simplistic is better, and that's always my goal. I try to leave the scientific stuff to the pros, particularly FiveThirtyEight.com.

I am wondering, though, if I am posting this too often. I don't want readers to get burnt out on this!

:hi:

[fight4my3sons]

19. You just feel like you are posting it too often because

it is your thing. You aren't posting it over and over all day. No one is asking you not to post it (at least I should hope not!). You have me actually liking math again, ok interest in Obama helps.

Please don't stop posting. I see other posts where I have not clue what's going on, too many numbers and I can't follow.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

20. You're probably right

I never planned on stopping, and I will definitely continue, but I felt like I needed some feedback. You know I would post this just for you and Max, lol ... :)

Readership has gone way down, and it causes me to wonder if it is because it's too complex or too long or too ___________ (fill in the blank).

Maybe it's just the season.

:hi:

[Coexist]

14. there is a lot of info,

but it is more like a smorgasbord than an overload; I can pick and choose what I look at.

I love it just the way it is.

[phrigndumass]

16. I wonder if there's a way to link to each section from the Contents at the top

One-click access to the part the reader wants to read, with a "back to the top" link at the bottom of each section ...

Anyone? Mods? Admins? I'll give it a study.

Thanks FLDem! :hi:

[redsoxrudy]

37. Love your posts

Just one suggestion. Perhaps find a polling average of past campaigns at a similar point in time and compared to their final outcome. When we this kind of great polling someone always mentions that Dukakis had a 17 point lead on Bush41. So it would be cool to compare this years trend lines to past years trend lines so as to tell if the ebbs and flows are following a "natural" progression or if a real shift is happening for good or ill. Thanks for all your great posts!

[phrigndumass]

39. Terrific idea, very helpful information for comparison

To get us started, here's the 2004 graph of Kerry vs. Bush from Electoral-Vote.com.



I'll dig up more data for next week's post and include it in the Poll Average Comparisons section. Thanks for a great idea, Rudy!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

6. .

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

7. Nice Job, Thanks!

[phrigndumass]

13. Thanks Chimp

:hi:

[depakid]

8. I remember similar things from 2004

They all but guaranteed a Kerry victory!

Dukakis' metrices looked even better arounfd this time in 1988.

Something to keep in mind.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

9. Yeah it is, but Obama's a better politician then Kerry and especially Dukakis.

Cockiness and/or complacency are the greatest threats right now though.

[Demeter]

21. Kerry's Numbers Simply Weren't Believable

The support was neither wide nor deep nor solid. And his campaigning was execrable.

The only thing I'm concerned by is the Margin of Error, the I Don't Knows. That's awfully big at 10%. I hope those aren't weasels who won't admit that they are going to vote GOP because they perceive it isn't chic.

[phrigndumass]

22. I've noticed in past elections, especially when it was close ...

... that the overall undecideds tend to break the same way that the swing states break. The saying has been, "As the swing states go, so goes the election." I've found that to be true almost all of the time.

When vote theft is an issue, the wider the spread in the swing states, the better. Obama is leading 54 to 46 in those states, and vote theft could make it 51 to 49 or even 50/50. I'm hoping to see Obama gain a double-digit lead in the combined swing states. To me, that would make it theft-proof.

Kerry had a lead in the swing states as a whole in 2004, but it was nowhere near the margin Obama has now, nor for as long a length of time. It seems obvious to me that Obama's chances this year are better than those of Kerry or even Gore.

But we gotta work it to achieve it! :hi:

[Demeter]

23. Hey, Pman! Can You List the Swing States, Keep a Running Tally on Them?

Do the members of the swing state group change during elections, or between?

Oh font of numerical wisdom, tell us please!

[phrigndumass]

24. Would you like that in chart form, or in tabular form? :)

And do you want fries with that? :D

The swing states are set for the year and won't change. Grantcart and I chose the 12 swing states used in our calculations based on this criteria:

- The swing states would need to be an equal sampling of red states and blue states.

- The base EVs needed to be even for each candidate, providing a fair basis for each candidate to grow on. The states in Obama's base had 200 electoral votes, while the states in McCain's base had 199 electoral votes. The remaining 139 electoral votes were from the swing states.

- The swing states needed to be from all over the country, not just one or two regions: South (NC, SC); Midwest (IA, IN, MI, MO, WI); East (OH, PA); and West (CO, NE, NM).

This widget shows the swing states we are using this year and how they are currently trading:



The graph below shows tracking of the running total found in the widget above:



To show how Obama is doing overall in these swing states, divide today's TOT-AVG in the widget by 1200. 659.70 divided by 1200.00 = 54%.

Intrade ( http://www.intrade.com ) shows tracking charts for each individual state's trading, but they make it difficult to link to. To find them, go to the Intrade website, click on Politics in the left margin, and then click on US Elections By State in the left margin. All 50 states will show up alphabetically.

Would you like me to track all 12 states on a daily graph? I'll be happy to do that, but only if someone asks.

Thanks Demeter! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

25. Would that be too much trouble?

and take up a lot of room? if not, then ok, I'm asking. Please :)

Thank you for explaining all of that. :hi:

[phrigndumass]

29. It would be twelve more numbers a day and a chart, not too much trouble :)

I'll populate the back-data today, and try to have it ready for tomorrow's daily widget post. Since the range is a full 100, I might break it up into two charts, one for the red states and one for the blue states ... that might be interesting.

I'm loving this feedback! :D

[phrigndumass]

35. Intrade made it easy ... here's a first draft of the new chart

Intrade had all the data in a downloadable format, so this was a breeze!

I ordered the states in the legend on the right by the current high to the current low (today's date), to make it easier to see which state each line color goes with.

Whatcha think? Questions? :hi:

[Demeter]

42. Cool! Obama's Got Pennsylvania!

Maybe a shot at two more!

[phrigndumass]

44. The chart makes it clearer to see, doesn't it? PAbama!

[Demeter]

26. I Can Feel My Poor Head Expanding as the Brain Tries to Assimilate It All

Remind me to be very careful what I ask for. And thanks! That seems a very sound methodology.

[phrigndumass]

30. I love it when readers give me great ideas!!!

Thanks Demeter! :hi: :loveya:

[Hippo_Tron]

33. Republicans don't count the votes in most of the swing states anymore

Remember that in 2006 we booted Republicans out of Secretary of State and Governors positions all over the country. Ohio is now under Democratic control as are Colorado and Virginia.

[phrigndumass]

34. Ohio's results will definitely be interesting this year, to compare to 2004!

I really want to see if the actual Ohio results are closer to the exit polls this time. That will tell us a lot, in the way of vote theft.

:hi:

[grantcart]

11. You really do a great job by improving this every week

the most startling changes is the fact that the red is receeding dramatically on the color map.

Still a lot of pink but the fact that his safe states are diminishing week by week this dramatically is astonishing.

I think the Wigand construct has proven to be even better than we thought it might be.

Still money to be made in South Carolina.

[phrigndumass]

12. We can see where McCain has waning support ...

It's a nationwide thing, but his support is diminished mostly in the south and midwest. McCain's strongest support is in Appalachia and Utah. Obama is proving that a Democrat doesn't need to be from the south to gain support there.

Our Wigand Total is really the most revealing. As the swing states go, so goes the election ... I remember we discussed that way back in late April and early May. The swing states are 54-46 Obama, and that's similar to RCP's Poll Average and Rasmussen's Daily Tracking (both Obama +7).

If I only had a spare twenty, I'd buy an Obama share or two for South Carolina, lol

[helderheid]

15. we CAN has the math!

[phrigndumass]

18. You are my good luck charm, helderheid :)

:hi: :loveya:

[nc4bo]

27. ahhhh.......the tarheels are slowly chipping away at the repub iceberg!!

[phrigndumass]

31. The tarheels are light blue, of course!

We should let Chapel Hill decide North Carolina's election ...

:hi:

[Tinksrival]

28. Oooo!

Lots of pretty colors! :) My fav is blue!

Thanks phrigndumass! Outstanding!

[phrigndumass]

32. yw Tinks

:hi:

[grantcart]

36. McCain must have been reading your report

he has decided to go to Mexico for votes.

[phrigndumass]

38. Mexico or New Mexico? lol ...

I must have missed something (I'm laughing) ... does this mean he's flipped again, and he's in favor of immigration? If he builds a big fat wall, won't those scary aliens find it harder to sneak in and vote for him?

Tangent: New chart. Whatcha think?

[grantcart]

40. Mexico and Columbia

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6427881&mesg_id=6427881

new chart is great

probably better on the weekly report

[grantcart]

41. remember earlier thread about AZ being in play?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6288459&mesg_id=6290660

[phrigndumass]

43. Twenty-five percent of Arizonans have never seen McCain's name on a ballot

Wow!

btw, Rasmussen released an Arizona poll today. Obama is trailing by only 9 points!

Obama 40, McCain 49 ... poll taken June 25.

[question everything]

45. Keep our fingers crossed. In the summer of 1988, Dukakis

was ahead of papa Bush by 20 point. Then came the Willie Horton ads.

[phrigndumass]

46. Very true! I'm hoping we'll have a big enough margin ...

... that a major swiftboating or two may not sink us as badly as Dukakis and Kerry were sunk.

We have to work very hard to earn these numbers.

Fingers crossed! :hi: