6/27 Election Model CONFIRMATION: Obama 53.6% (State AND National projections) with 365 EV!

[tiptoe]

2008 ELECTION MODEL
A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation


TruthIsAll

Updated: June 27   

  State Poll Aggregate and projection trend

  National 5-Poll moving average projection

  Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

  Battleground state polls

  Electoral vote and win probability trend

  Electoral vote and projected vote share trend

  Undecided voter allocation and win probability

  Battleground state win probability

  Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

"I'm glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list."  — Sancho

Last
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected
Win

6/27/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
EV
Prob%

Obama
McCain
46.8
41.9
47.8
42.6
53.6
46.4
53.6
46.4
365
173
100.0
0.0

    

10-Poll

Last Poll

Sample

 

NATIONAL MODEL

 

5-Poll Mov Avg

 

5-Poll MA, 2-party Proj

Trend
                      
Rasmussen
Time
Gallup
Bloomberg
USA Today

Newsweek
FOX
Rasmussen
Gallup
ABC/WP

Date
        
6/26
6/25
6/25
6/23
6/19

6/18
6/18
6/18
6/17
6/15

Size
              
3000 LV
805 RV
2605 RV
1115 RV
1310 LV

896 RV
900 RV
3000 LV
2605 RV
--

 

Obama
        
49
47
44
49
50

51
45
48
47
49

McCain
        
45
43
44
37
44

36
41
45
42
45

Spread
        
4
4
0
12
6

15
4
3
5
4

 

Obama
        
47.8
48.2
47.8
48.6
48.2

48.0
46.6
47.0
46.8
46.2

McCain
        
42.6
40.8
40.4
40.6
41.6

41.8
42.6
42.8
42.0
42.0

 

Obama
        
53.6
54.8
54.9
55.1
54.3

54.1
53.1
53.1
53.5
53.3

McCain
        
46.4
45.2
45.1
44.9
45.7

45.9
46.9
46.9
46.5
46.7

Diff
        
7.1
9.6
9.8
10.2
8.6

8.2
6.2
6.2
7.0
6.6

 

The state and national projection models are in exact confirmation.
Obama leads both with 53.6% of the projected two-party vote.

If the election was held today, the Election Model projects Obama would win an expected  365 – 173  EV.

Obama leads the aggregate state poll weighted average by 46.8 – 41.9%.
Obama leads the national 5-poll unweighted average by 47.8 – 42.6%.

These key battleground states are projected to flip to Obama:    CO,  IA,  NM,  OH,  VA,  NC,  FL,  GA,  IN

View the latest state/ national polling and corresponding popular and electoral vote projections below.

But there’s a catch: It’s called Election Fraud.

The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.
They need massive new voter registration and GOTV to overcome the fraud.

In 2004, Kerry easily won the True Vote. Bush had a 48% approval rating.
McCain supports the most unpopular president in history with 25% approval.

In a true democracy, this would be a slam dunk for Obama.

• But approximately 3–4 million Obama votes will be uncounted (70–80%).
  
• The vote counts on DREs and central tabulators are unverifiable.

The expected electoral vote is the average of the 5000 election trial simulation.
Since Obama won 4999 trials, there is a virtual 100% probability he will win the election.

The model executes five undecided voter scenarios (5000 trials each).
In the most likely base case, 60% of undecided voters were allocated to Obama.
In the worst case, 50% were allocated; he had a 52.4% share, 323 EV and 98% win probability.

Obama’s win probability in each state is calculated by the Excel NORMDIST function.
Input to NORMDIST is Obama’s projected 2-party vote share and the 4% margin of error.

• For example, in Florida, Obama is tied with McCain in the latest polls at 45%.
  Obama is projected to win the 2-party vote by 51 – 49%.
  His probability of winning is 69%: =NORMDIST (.51, .50, .04/1.96, TRUE)

The 2008 Election Calculator determined that Obama will win a 71-59m landslide (54 - 45%).
The model calculates the True Vote based on the following returning and new voter estimates:

• 2004 recorded vote, mortality, uncounted votes, 2004 voter turnout in 2008 and estimated vote shares.
  
• The 2004 True Vote used the 12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares applied to returning and new voters:
  (2000 recorded vote + uncounted votes - voter deaths) * 2000 voter turnout + new 2004 voters.

2004 Election Model Review
The model produced an amazing confirmation of the state and national models.

• Both models projected Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.
  
• Both assumed that Kerry would win 75% of the undecided vote.
  The final national 5-poll projection average was 51.8%.
  The final national 18-poll projection average was 51.6%.

Election Model projections closely matched the exit polls:
The 12:22am National Exit Poll (Voted 2000 demographic) indicated that Kerry won by 51.4 – 47.6%.
Exit Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan 2005:
Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit poll by 51.8 – 47.2%.

The Election Calculator Model used 12:22am NEP vote shares applied to returning and new voters.
It determined that Kerry won a 67–57 million landslide, 53.2 - 45.4%.

2004 Calculated True Vote
                              12:22am NEP vote share
  
2000  Turnout  Voted    Mix     Kerry   Bush   Other
                                                 
DNV       -     25.6   20.4%     57%     41%     2%
Gore      95%   49.7   39.5%     91%      8%     1%
Bush      95%   46.6   37.1%     10%     90%     0%
Other     95%    3.8    3.0%     64%     17%    19%
  
Total   100.1  125.7    100%    53.2%   45.4%   1.4%
Votes cast             125.7    66.9    57.1    1.7
  
Recorded Vote (actual) 122.3    59.0    62.0    1.2
                                48.3%   50.7%   1.0%
  
  
Unadjusted Exit Poll            51.9%   47.1%   1.0%
Deviation from True Vote        -1.3%   +1.7%  -0.4%

 

Election Forecasting Methodology
Two basic methods are used to forecast presidential elections:

1. Vote share projections based on the latest state and national polls
   
2. Projections based on historical time-series regression models.
   
   In the Election Model, state and national projections are based on the latest polls.
   Undecided voters are allocated to project the two-party vote.

Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Overview
The objective is to calculate the expected electoral vote and win probability.
The win probability for each state is calculated based on the current projection.

For each of 5000 election trials:
In each state, the winner is determined by comparing the win probability to a random number (0-1).
The winner of the election trial is the candidate who wins at least 270 electoral votes.
The win probability is simply the number of winning election trials divided by 5000.

2004 Registered Voter (RV) vs. Likely Voter (LV) Polls
The national pre-election RV polls were closer to the True Vote than likely voter LV polls.
The LV polls, after adjustments, matched the RVs – and the unadjusted exit polls.

Other links:
2008 Election Model

Confirmation of A Kerry Landslide
Election Fraud Analytics and Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Excel Models available for download:
The Election Calculator: 1988-2004
2004 Interactive Simulation Model
A Polling Simulation Model
2000-2004 County Vote Database

Aggregate State and National Polls and Projections 
Undecided-Voter allocation effect on projected vote share, EV and win probability

THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL

Last
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected
Win

6/27/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
EV
Prob%

Obama
McCain
46.8
41.9
47.8
42.6
53.6
46.4
53.6
46.4
365
173
100.0
0.0

 


Undecided Voter Allocation
Obama
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%

 

Obama election trials
Win
Probability
4916
98.32
4986
99.72
4999
100.0
5000
100.0
5000
100.0

 

Projected Vote Share
Obama
McCain
52.4
47.6
53.0
47.0
53.6
46.4
54.1
45.9
54.7
45.3

 

Electoral Vote
Average
Median
323
322
342
342
365
365
388
389
409
411

 

Maximum
Minimum
413
242
421
256
439
248
454
298
466
309

 

95% Confidence Level
Upper
Lower
374
272
395
289
418
312
441
336
455
363

 

States Won
26
28
29
33
34

 

2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS

State Model

 
 
State Polls Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation
 
Projection
Win
Trial
Flip to
 
Total

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
       
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
       
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
       
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
       
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
       
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
       
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
       
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
       
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
       
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
       
EV
 538 
       
9
3
10
6
55
       
9
7
3
3
27
       
15
4
4
21
11
       
7
6
8
9
4
       
10
12
17
10
6
       
11
3
5
5
4
       
15
5
31
15
3
       
20
7
7
21
4
       
8
3
11
34
5
       
3
13
11
5
10
3
       
Obama
 46.8 % 
       	
33
41
28
40
56

46
47
90
50
45

43
61
39
60
48

47
37
41
41
55

52
53
48
51
44

43
39
36
42
51

47
47
51
43
38

46
38
48
46
53

39
34
36
38
31

63
45
55
37
52
40
 
McCain
 41.9 % 
       
59
45
38
47
36

43
44
9
41
45

44
31
52
31
47

42
47
53
50
33

39
30
42
42
50

50
47
52
45
39

39
39
34
45
44

43
52
45
42
38

48
51
51
43
55

29
44
40
45
41
53
      
Diff
 4.9 %  
      
(26)
(4)
(10)
(7)
20 
 
3 
3 
81 
9 
0 
 
(1)
30 
(13)
29 
1 
 
5 
(10)
(12)
(9)
22 
 
13 
23 
6 
9 
(6)
 
(7)
(8)
(16)
(3)
12 
 
8 
8 
17 
(2)
(6)
 
3 
(14)
3 
4 
15 
 
(9)
(17)
(15)
(5)
(24)
 
34 
1 
15 
(8)
11 
(13)
       
BO EV
 328 
       




55

9
7
3
3



4

21
11

7



4

10
12
17
10






4

15
5
31



20

7
21
4







3
13
11

10

 
    
 	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
         
Obama
 53.6 % 
       
37.8
49.4
48.4
47.8
60.8

52.6
52.4
90.6
55.4
51.0

50.8
65.8
44.4
65.4
51.0

53.6
46.6
44.6
46.4
62.2

57.4
63.2
54.0
55.2
47.6

47.2
47.4
43.2
49.8
57.0

55.4
55.4
60.0
50.2
48.8

52.6
44.0
52.2
53.2
58.4

46.8
43.0
43.8
49.4
39.4

67.8
51.6
58.0
47.8
56.2
44.2
 
Probability
 100.0 % 
       
0.0
38.2
21.2
13.6
100.0

90.3
88.5
100.0
99.7
69.1

65.5
100.0
0.3
100.0
69.1

96.4
4.5
0.3
3.6
100.0

100.0
100.0
97.7
99.5
11.5

8.1
9.7
0.0
46.0
100.0

99.7
99.7
100.0
54.0
27.4

90.3
0.1
86.4
94.5
100.0

5.5
0.0
0.1
38.2
0.0

100.0
78.8
100.0
13.6
99.9
0.2
       
EV
 374 





55

9
7
3
3
27

15
4

21
11

7



4

10
12
17
10






4

15
5
31
15


20

7
21
4







3
13
11

10

    
       
Obama
  9  
 






Obama



Obama

Obama



Obama

Obama


















Obama

Obama


Obama












Obama




    

        

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO
CT
DC
DE
FL

GA
HI
ID
IL
IN

IA
KS
KY
LA
ME

MD
MA
MI
MN
MS

MO
MT
NE
NV
NH

NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND

OH
OK
OR
PA
RI

SC
SD
TN
TX
UT

VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY

National Model

    

10-Poll

Last Poll

Sample

 

NATIONAL MODEL

 

5-Poll Mov Avg

 

5-Poll MA, 2-party Proj

Trend
                      
Rasmussen
Time
Gallup
Bloomberg
USA Today

Newsweek
FOX
Rasmussen
Gallup
ABC/WP

Date
        
6/26
6/25
6/25
6/23
6/19

6/18
6/18
6/18
6/17
6/15

Size
              
3000 LV
805 RV
2605 RV
1115 RV
1310 LV

896 RV
900 RV
3000 LV
2605 RV
--

 

Obama
        
49
47
44
49
50

51
45
48
47
49

McCain
        
45
43
44
37
44

36
41
45
42
45

Spread
        
4
4
0
12
6

15
4
3
5
4

 

Obama
        
47.8
48.2
47.8
48.6
48.2

48.0
46.6
47.0
46.8
46.2

McCain
        
42.6
40.8
40.4
40.6
41.6

41.8
42.6
42.8
42.0
42.0

 

Obama
        
53.6
54.8
54.9
55.1
54.3

54.1
53.1
53.1
53.5
53.3

McCain
        
46.4
45.2
45.1
44.9
45.7

45.9
46.9
46.9
46.5
46.7

Diff
        
7.1
9.6
9.8
10.2
8.6

8.2
6.2
6.2
7.0
6.6

 

 

[phrigndumass]

1. K/R ... I'm loving the data in your TIA County Vote Database

Thanks for sharing that. Off to read some more ...

Thanks tiptoe! :hi:

[tiptoe]

2. yrvlcm nt

[tiptoe]

3. k!