Eleanor Clift: Mapping a Win - Inside Obama's 50-state strategy

[babylonsister]

http://www.newsweek.com/id/143474

Eleanor Clift
Mapping a Win - Inside Obama's 50-state strategy
Jun 27, 2008


Legend has it that Democratic strategist James Carville didn't change his underwear the few days before the '92 election for fear of jinxing the returns. Bob Shrum, a key adviser to both Al Gore and John Kerry, treasures a brightly colored scarf he only wears on election nights. He calls it his lucky scarf even though it failed him in 2000 and 2004. I thought of these two characters as I watched David Plouffe, Barack Obama's no-nonsense campaign manager, give a Power Point presentation to a roomful of reporters at the Democratic National Committee headquarters in Washington on Wednesday afternoon. Maybe Plouffe has all sorts of quirks and superstitions he has yet to reveal, but for now he epitomizes the "no-drama Obama" candidate and his campaign.

Slightly built and intense, Plouffe put up a series of electoral maps and with surgical precision illustrated a variety of ways Obama could reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. "We're not going to wake up on November 4th with our campaign worrying about one state," he said, harking back to Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004. "We will have a lot of states in play … a lot of ways to get to 270." Were he any other partisan strategist, I would discount 50 percent for spin. But Plouffe is convincing, and here's why: He ran a brilliant primary campaign, and Obama will have the money and the technology to pursue every last vote he thinks might be his.

Let's do the math. If Obama holds all the Kerry states, he's at 252. Add Iowa for 259. Add a win in Virginia or North Carolina, "and it's game, set, match," says Plouffe. Or add Colorado and New Mexico, Republican states where Obama now leads, to reach 270. The campaign last week put up a biographical ad in 18 states, including Alaska and Montana, historically Republican states. It looked like Obama was just trying to taunt McCain, lure him into spending money in states where he shouldn't. But Plouffe insists "there's not a head fake in the bunch." Alaska's octogenarian Sen. Ted Stephens, under investigation for corruption and the sponsor of the infamous "bridge to nowhere," is in a tight race for reelection. Montana, which Bill Clinton won in '92, has a Democratic governor and senator.

And Plouffe is just getting started. There's Georgia, a state that hasn't gone Democratic since 1976, but the presence of former Georgia Rep. Bob Barr, who's running for a third party—Libertarian—could drain 2 to 4 percent from McCain and put the state within reach for Obama. "Indiana is another place where I would ask you to reorder your thinking," Plouffe said with clinical certainty, adding it to his list of states "behaving" more Democratic. "Our goal is to adjust the electorate more to our liking," he said, explaining how registering a record number of African-Americans and young people under 40 could swell Democratic turnout and swing Republican-leaning states to Obama.

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http://www.newsweek.com/id/143474/page/2

[1Hippiechick]

1. interesting, but I kept going back to Carville not changing his underwear? Ewwwww.. LOL Sorry - 5*

[babylonsister]

3. I know; I debated posting that! nt

[tekisui]

2. 2008 will be a sea of blue.

Go, Obama!

[Zynx]

4. Wow that article was badly researched. Georgia went Democratic in 1980 and 1992.