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Can we get a consensus of which polls are crap and which are ok?

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
Neshanic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-29-08 10:07 AM
Original message
Can we get a consensus of which polls are crap and which are ok?
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fasttense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-29-08 10:10 AM
Response to Original message
1. As one DU statistician once said
It is not one individual poll or one pollster that is accurate above all else, but all of them together and their trends indicate the truth.
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-29-08 10:13 AM
Response to Original message
2. Polls whose findings reflect my personal preferences and biases are
good polls.

Polls whose findings run contrary to my personal preferences and biases are not.


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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-29-08 10:14 AM
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3. Crap: All of them; it's June.
Ok: The ones in September.
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Douglas Carpenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-29-08 10:23 AM
Response to Original message
4. I always check the RCP (Real Clear Politics) Average
Edited on Sun Jun-29-08 10:26 AM by Douglas Carpenter
I suspect all polls are crap at times. Just as most polls are reasonably credible at times.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

Real clear Politics is actually an extremely (almost nutcase - freeperesque) site, IF you read the articles by the writers who specifically write for that site. However, when it comes to compiling data and providing a balance of articles from across the spectrum of opinion ...I'm quite impressed.

The current RCP Average has Sen. Obama at 47.1% and Sen. McCain at 40.5%



This comes from averaging the following:

Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 49%/McCain 53%

Gallup Tracking: Obama 44%/McCain 44%

Time: Obama 47%/McCain 43%

LA Times/Bloomberg: Obama 49%/McCain 37%

Franklin and Marshall: Obama 42%/McCain 36%

Newsweek: Obama 51%/McCain 36%

Fox News: Obama 45%/McCain 41%

USA Today/Gallup: Obama 50%/McCain 44%

link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/
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goldcanyonaz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-29-08 10:23 AM
Response to Original message
5. any poll that shows what I like to see is a WINNER!
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