The Daily Widget – Monday, July 7 – Obama 365, McCain 173

[phrigndumass]

Only one new state poll was released since Friday:
Rhode Island – Obama 55, McCain 31 (Rasmussen, 7/1, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)

Rhode Island College conducted a poll on the same day and, as I reported on Friday, found similar results (Obama 53-25). The results from the two polls were averaged and input into the spreadsheet.

It was a slow weekend for state polls, and that allowed me time to do some research for THE MATH Weekly post. One new item shown was a Probability of Obama Win figure. If the election were held today, Obama would have an 80.2% probability of winning, while McCain’s probability of winning would be 19.8%.

I also added a new list of states with undecideds greater than 10% (lots of solid-red states):
West Virginia – 16.4%
New Jersey – 16.1%
North Dakota – 13.4%
Kentucky – 12.6%
South Dakota – 12.4%
Tennessee – 11.8%
Alabama – 11.5%
South Carolina – 11.0%
Arkansas – 10.7%
Utah – 10.3%
Pennsylvania – 10.1%
Maryland – 10.0%

A new comparisons section was also introduced to compare Kerry’s 2004 campaign progress to Obama’s. In a brief exclusive interview with the one and only Grantcart, he offered these words of wisdom regarding the comparison:

The comparison is good and helpful. The big difference, of course, is that there is no incumbent, so a lot of people who are worried about change and who would eventually slip back to the incumbent for security’s sake have nowhere to sink back to. There is going to be change, and now they have to decide. It also shows how disastrous the Swift Boat ads were and why Obama had to forsake Federal Financing.

(His Brilliance always needs a little grammatical and punctuation editing. Why doesn’t that guy ever use smilies, btw?)

He’s exactly right. Look:




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DAILY TRACKING




















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Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[tekisui]

1. knr!

I like the Kerry tracker.

[phrigndumass]

3. In that case, I'll post it daily :)

With an update of the electoral vote projections on this date four years ago.

Thanks tek! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

13. New Kerry-Obama comparison graph

This is interesting ... almost from the beginning, Kerry was trending downward in 2004. Obama's trendline is nuthin' but north so far.

The orange line is Kerry's daily electoral vote projection in 2004 from Electoral-Vote.com. The red line is Obama's daily electoral vote projection from Electoral-Vote.com. The green line is my own daily electoral vote projection for Obama.

I'll begin posting this daily. :D

[jefferson_dem]

2. Mornin' phrigndumass!

Great work, per usual.

:kick:

[phrigndumass]

4. Good morning jd!

:donut: Thanks! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

5. Good morning, phrigndumass!

Things are looking better than when I left last week. I was totally disconnected and had no computer time or tv time. Ack! I really have to catch up.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

6. Welcome back, f4m3s!

The day after you left, everything reversed itself, lol. Glad to see you had a true vacation with no connection. That would be my idea of a dream vacation.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

7. Off to work kick

Enjoy your day

[phrigndumass]

10. ,

[grantcart]

8. lol very funny

:+

[phrigndumass]

9. ^ ^ ^ Smiley In Use ^ ^ ^ LOL ...

:evilgrin:

[mod mom]

11. loving your numbers!

If I miss a recommendation it's because I'm working to make sure the OH election numbers ring true :hi:

[phrigndumass]

12. Thanks mod mom!

I'd rather Obama win than these posts making 5 recs each day, so THANK YOU for what you are doing in Ohio!!!

We spent some time registering voters in St. Louis on Saturday when President Obama was in town. We'll probably do door-knockers next time, in a few weeks.

:hi:

[Demeter]

14. Pman, why Do Your Projected Electoral Votes Run So Much Higher than

the other two projections? Just a little curious.

[phrigndumass]

15. Very good question! Here's an answer :)

Here's the graph again, for reference.



Electoral-Vote.com (red line) is a good source for an electoral vote "snapshot" ... If the election were held today and the undecideds were split evenly, their count would most likely be accurate. They use the latest state polls, and if there is more than one poll conducted during the same time period, they average the polls.

538.com (blue line) uses modeling and regression. Their count is a true projection of what the likely outcome will be on November 4th. I like to show their count alongside others to give us an idea of the regression that is expected to take place between now and November 4th, based on historical data and based on current snapshots. Notice the blue line between June 16 and June 26 ... during this time period, 538.com was still working on regression models. Their count was a "snapshot" for those 10 days, like mine and like EV.com's. 538.com really has their act together, and I wouldn't be surprised if they are right on the nose.

My count (green line) is exactly like that of Electoral-Vote.com, except I don't assume that the undecideds will split evenly. I use the swing state statistics to determine how the undecideds nationwide will split, since I believe in "As the swing states go, so goes the election."

I also use a momentum multiplier (difference in potentials combined with the strength of projection). Most of the presidential elections in the past have either been very close or not close at all. This momentum multiplier takes that historical aspect into consideration and adjusts the electoral vote projection accordingly. The multiplier ranges between 1.0 and 1.5 for the low end of the scale, and it ranges from 1.5 to 2.69 for the high end of the scale. We're still on the low end of the scale, but not far from the high end.

If the election were held today and the undecideds split according to the swing state percentages and Obama's momentum is in the medium range, Obama should win roughly 365 electoral votes to McCain's 173, according to my "snapshot".

I'll be happy to clarify anything, Demeter. :hi:

[Demeter]

16. Thank You.

I think I even understand that explanation.

Yours is more of a projection than theirs, basically. Like the difference between velocity and acceleration. You are predicting the future.

You should change your handle to Tiresias2.0!