"John McCain's Gambling Problem"

[Pirate Smile]

John McCain's Gambling Problem

Michael Scherer and Michael Weisskopf have a great piece in Time this week about what the two candidates' gambling habits say about their political (and, potentially, governing) styles. Short version: McCain is a high-stakes craps player who loves the pure, adrenalin-pumping, rush of the game. Obama is an exceedingly low-stakes poker player who sizes up his odds methodically and rarely loses money.

It's a great insight into the two personalities. And there's an even better scoop a little further down. While I knew most of the details of Obama's poker-playing, I had no idea McCain was such a hard-core gambler:

In the past decade, (McCain) has played on Mississippi riverboats, on Indian land, in Caribbean craps pits and along the length of the Las Vegas Strip. Back in 2005 he joined a group of journalists at a magazine-industry conference in Puerto Rico, offering betting strategy on request. "Enjoying craps opens up a window on a central thread constant in John's life," says John Weaver, McCain's former chief strategist, who followed him to many a casino. "Taking a chance, playing against the odds." Aides say McCain tends to play for a few thousand dollars at a time and avoids taking markers, or loans, from the casinos, which he has helped regulate in Congress. "He never, ever plays on the house," says Mark Salter, a McCain adviser. The goal, say several people familiar with his habit, is never financial. He loves the thrill of winning and the camaraderie at the table.

Only recently have McCain's aides urged him to pull back from the pastime. In the heat of the G.O.P. primary fight last spring, he announced on a visit to the Vegas Strip that he was going to the casino floor. When his aides stopped him, fearing a public relations disaster, McCain suggested that they ask the casino to take a craps table to a private room, a high-roller privilege McCain had indulged in before. His aides, with alarm bells ringing, refused again, according to two accounts of the discussion.

"He clearly knows that this is on the borderline of what is acceptable for him to be doing," says a Republican who has watched McCain play. "And he just sort of revels in it." .

A few thousand dollars at a time?* Wow. That's more than borderline unseemly, I'd say--easily several hundred thousand dollars over a period of 5-10 years if McCain plays regularly. It's certainly a far cry from the $1-ante games Obama played in Springfield.

At the end of the piece, a former Obama colleague, refering to Obama's contemplative gambling style, tells Time, "If he runs his presidency the way he plays poker, I'll sleep good at night." I think the converse is true of McCain--I'd sleep pretty poorly if he were to run his presidency the way he plays craps. (And I think the odds are high that he would. He certainly seems to run his campaign that way...)

*Of course, if by "a few thousand dollars at a time" Scherer and Weisskopf mean "a few thousand dollars a hand roll," then we're potentially talking millions of dollars over a period of several years, not hundreds of thousands. We'd be in real pathological territory--nothing particularly borderline about it.

--Noam Scheiber

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_stump/archive/2008/07/06/john-mccain-s-gambling-problem.aspx#comments

Senator McCain Livin’ Large at the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas



http://independentsources.com/2006/06/03/john-mccain-gambling-las-vegas/


There is a Diary on this topic up on Daily Kos - it includes this - "here's the meme:"



http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/7/75815/89579/715/547458

[kentuck]

1. Is this really something we need to know ?

Of course it is !!

[Pirate Smile]

3. I want to know MORE!

:)

[nc4bo]

4. so do i. Too bad the story doesn't go farther back.

Just adding a little something i saved:

http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/05/26/john-mccain-his-lobbyist-gambling-buddy-and-a-shady-land-deal/

Mac Daddy McCain loves rolling the dice (from Connie Bruck’s profile in The New Yorker):

“McCain is an avid gambler. Wes Gullett, a close friend who worked for McCain for years, told me that they used to play craps in Las Vegas in fourteen-hour stints, standing at the tables from 10 a.m. to midnight.” <…>

Here are the key elements of the story:

* Wes Gullet is an old friend and gambling buddy of John McCain. They rolled dice together in 14-hour-long sessions in Las Vegas.
* Gullet was McCain’s campaign manager and top senate staffer and is now a lobbyist.
* Gullet was hired to lobby McCain on the largest land swap in Arizona history, exchanging private land in the wilderness for valuable federally-owned land ready for development.
* McCain, who initially opposed the swap, changed his position and supported it after Gullett was hired.
* The land swap benefited one of John McCain’s top fundraisers who has hauled in more than $100,000 for his Presidential campaign.

As Jed explains, this has “all the elements for a great story — Vegas, gambling, corruption, visually compelling Arizona landscapes, etc. And it’s a true story. But with scattered exceptions, the media has ignored it.” He’s sure not kidding. Could you just imagine what the media would be doing if this involved Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama?

there's more @ the link

[starroute]

25. And there was Cindy McCain's father's link to Las Vegas mobsters

http://republicanfreeamerica.blogspot.com/2006/12/married-to-mob.html

One wonders what Cindy told McCain about her father. When did McCain learn how her father-in-law Jim Hensley made his fortune? Sooner or later he had to be dealt in on the 'family jewels.' After all, they helped finance a run for Congress and not long after that for the Senate.

Jim Hensley and his brother Eugene went to work after World War II for Kemper Marley, a wealthy wholesale liquor distributor. Marley, in fact, had once been a bookie, getting his start working for the Transamerica Wire Service, a betting service established by mafiosi Gus Greenbaum (who was murdered with his wife when their throats were slashed in bed in 1958). Until 1947, liquor was rationed by the government. Apparently Marley did quite well in spite of the restrictions, and in 1948 the reason why became clear. Eugene and Jim Hensley were convicted of falsifying records on behalf of Marley's distributorship, United Liquor (along with fifty other Marley employees) to conceal the illegal distribution of hundreds of cases of liquor. Jim Hensley got a six month suspended sentence. . . .

Marley was interested in more than just liquor. In 1976, then Gov. Raul Castro, a Democrat, appointed Marley, then a billionaire and the state's richest man, to the state racing commission. And that's when one of those pesky investigative reporters got in the way. The reporter's name was Don Bolles and he worked for the Arizona Republic. Bolles discovered a land fraud ring and other crimes that appeared to lead to Sen. Barry Goldwater and others in Arizona's power structure. And he discovered that Kemper Marley, newly appointed to the State Board Racing Commission, had connections to the Mafia. In fact, Marley was a close associate of Peter Licavoli, the mob boss for Arizona. Marley had also served as Chairman of the Board for Valley National Bank, which helped bankroll Bugsy Siegel's construction of the Flamingo in Las Vegas. . . .

On June 2, 1976, Bolles climbed into his car and was blown apart by a bomb under the driver's seat. Pieces of his body were strewn around the parking lot. Bolles amazingly survived for eleven days and said to investgators on the scene, "They finally got me. The Mafia. Emprise. Find John (Harvey) Adamson."

[senseandsensibility]

2. Well, with a wife who spends 750,000 dollars a month

that's chump change. I'm sure cindy is more than willing to cover McSame's losses. Obama, on the other hand, was a regular working person until just a few years ago.

[Frustratedlady]

5. Quite a comparison.

One sounds like our present pResident, the other sounds like my father...steady and dependable...no taking chances without a pretty good forecast for success.

If I were a betting woman, I would hold my cards close on that first one. The second example is a good choice.

I just shudder to think how much of George's failure will be blamed on Obama. I'm not taking bets on that one.

[Ichingcarpenter]

6. I've mentioned this before and $1000 foolish bets and his not passing

the dice. He is also a rude and foolish player with craps, that regular
players of the game have commented after observing him play.

Now, imagine his foreign policy.


So I will kick and nominate

[Pirate Smile]

9. He is an adrenaline junkie. He loves high risk behavior - crashing planes, campaigns that run out

of $$$ and then rise from the dead based on falsified loan papers.

His personality would be a disaster as President.

[TwilightGardener]

13. Yep--you nailed it. But of course, the media will paint it as maverick "bad-boy" charm.

Same as blue-blood Daddy's-little-failure Chimpster was magically transformed into Cowboy Rancher Man who connected with the Common Man.

[kentuck]

21. You can tell a lot about a person by how they gamble and how they play sports...

Obama is by far the superior in both areas.

[kentuck]

7. Johnny McCain has been a crap shooter almost his entire adult life...

He was a crap shooter when he was aboard the USS Forrestal. He was a crap shooter when he was shot down dropping bombs on Hanoi. He was a crap shooter when he got involved in the Keating Five S & L scandal. He was a crap shooter when he allied himself with all his lobbyist friends and made buddies with the media stoolies when he was in charge of the Senate Commerce Committee. He was a crap shooter when he decided to run for President this time around. And he will be a crap shooter when he becomes President. It's something to think about. Seriously.

[MidwestTransplant]

8. SO that's how he will balance the budget in 4 years.

[Ichingcarpenter]

11. Only if he wears his lucky shoes and other superstitious gambling habits!

So what is up with McCain's superstitions? Here's a bit on the extent of his rituals and lucky charms from 8 years ago to the day, just before he lost the South Carolina primaries in 2000.

"I'm wearing my lucky shoes from today till Sunday," McCain says from his bus on Wednesday. At the moment, his pockets contain the compass, feather (from a tribal leader) and penny (flattened, in his wallet).

When McCain once misplaced his feather, there was momentary panic in the campaign, until his wife found it in one of his suits. When the compass went missing once, McCain assigned his political director to hunt it down. Weaver found it, and it remains safe, knock wood.

Primary day requires additional rituals. By the time you read this, Steve Dart, McCain's lucky friend, should have arrived in South Carolina from California. He has been present with McCain for every Election Day since McCain first won a seat in Congress.

McCain must sleep on a certain side of the bed, particularly before an election (and he never puts a hat on a bed--bad luck). Rain is good for Election Day, as are motion pictures. McCain requires himself to view a movie before the vote is counted. He fell asleep in his hotel room in New Hampshire before he watched a movie on primary day, but his staff didn't panic. "We have superstition fire walls," says Todd Harris, a spokesman.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/20/02150/0194

[TwilightGardener]

10. Well, when the little trophy wifeski is worth many millions, thousand-dollar bets

are penny-ante stuff, I guess. What an elitist, money-wasting asshole.

[smoogatz]

12. Craps is for suckers.

I guess that says it all.

[central scrutinizer]

14. Actually craps is the closest casino game to even-money

Mathematically speaking if you calculate the expected value of the game which takes into account all possible outcomes and their associated probabilities and payoffs, craps is the closest to being a "fair" game. The expected value of all casino games is negative (obviously) but the expected value of craps is closest to zero.

[kentuck]

15. Is it mostly luck or skill??

I know that those bones can talk to you... :-)

[smoogatz]

17. The throw of the dice is entirely about luck.

Betting well requires a certain amount of skill--but you still have to beat the casino's built-in percentage. Most high-rolling players lose big over the long-haul--that's why casinos love them.

[smoogatz]

16. It's still fixed in favor of the casino.

And you have very little control over the outcome. Compared to poker, say. I'm not much of a fan of games of chance—and I think the psychology of people who are is a tad suspect. Especially if they want to be president.

[central scrutinizer]

19. Of course the odds favor the casino

If they didn't, that game would not be offered. I am talking about games that can be calculated using classical probability techniques, where it is totally a game of chance: roulette, slots, craps, keno, lottery, etc. Poker, blackjack and other games where bluffing and psychology enter in are more difficult. You can certainly calculate the probability of getting a straight in poker, but you can't calculate the probability that a player will be bluffed out of a winning hand.

[kentuck]

22. Very true.

I love poker. A good player will play their opponent rather than their hand. An excellent player will play both. :-)

[smoogatz]

24. Depends on the player.

But I understand what you're saying, and of course you're right--I think. My understanding, though, was that blackjack was actually the casino game that offers the best players' odds (at least for skillful players). Or is blackjack not technically considered a "casino game" on the order of roulette and craps, say?

[Awsi Dooger]

30. Very true, and I find craps hideously dull

It's certainly popular. When you hear a sudden roar in a casino it's always from the craps table, someone rolling the number. Seemingly everyone plays the pass line even though don't pass is slightly better odds.

I only played for one extended period, about 6 hours one night when I visited Las Vegas during college. I played don't pass steadily and more or less broke even. I forget if I was a few bucks ahead or behind. After that I never cared about the game.

Celebrities seem to love craps. I've seen Mike Ditka playing frequently.

But as someone who lives here, poker and sports betting are where you have a chance to overcome house odds in the long run, some input and control.

If Obama's playing for $1 among friends, that doesn't even qualify as gambling.

McCain is hardly a friend to legalized gambling. Several years ago he tried to ban college sports betting in Nevada sportsbooks. He was obsessed for years. Harry Reid literally had to stay in the senate floor back in the shadows late into the night, just in case McCain tried to attach his bill at the last minute to something unrelated and obscure.

[TwilightGardener]

18. After the hoopla about Edwards' house and $400 haircut, where is the media

on the fact that McCain and his wife piss away thousands upon thousands of dollars every month, own 8 luxury residences, and spend 14 hours a day at casinos throwing away more money JUST FOR FUN AND CAMARADERIE than many families earn in a month? WHERE IS THE DNC and its media spokesmouths on this? McCain's elitist, wealthy, wasteful lifestyle should be HAMMERED on, day and night, so that the average American Joe who can't even afford to fill his gas tank to get to work knows how his potential President lives like a king despite the sour economy.

[grantcart]

23. great point

[tritsofme]

28. Republicans don't pretend to be advocates of the poor.

They whore for the super-rich and are up front about it.

That's the difference.

[Stephanie]

32. Lives like a king on his wife's money. He is a kept man.

He's really an embarrassment.

[cascadiance]

20. So anyone got pics of him at the craps table with Bill Bennett?

That would be nice!...

[Pirate Smile]

26. kick

[Motown_Johnny]

27. It's his wife's money.... what does he care?

[Stephanie]

29. Does John McCain have a gambling problem???

This is the first I have heard of this but it is certainly disturbing news.

[LoZoccolo]

31. As an occasional gambler myself I would be very curious about this "betting strategy"...

...seeing as in craps the smart people know there's almost no betting strategy. Pass line, double odds, that's it. Bet on don't pass if you want to piss the rest of the table off and get slightly better odds. Come bets are basically the same as pass if you are in a hurry to lose more. I have told you all you need to know to bet on craps in three sentences; the complicated stuff all over the rest of the table are sucker bets that the casino added to make the game worse for the player if they want it to be. If he doesn't know this, then I would seriously seriously question his judgment, and it would be funny to listen to him bullshit about knowing something that the rest of us know doesn't exist. I play this game when I want to get wasted on free drinks and don't want to have to remember what to do in each situation like you have to do in blackjack.

[Pirate Smile]

33. kick