Insider Advantage - Obama Could Carry Georgia, But Several Factors Must Come Together

[brooklynite]

from Insider Advantage:

Barack Obama, poised to become the Democratic presidential nominee, has begun running television ads in Georgia. This investment confirms the rumors that Democrats believe that his candidacy gives them some hope of carrying parts of the South, including Georgia. Attempting to secure a few southern states makes good sense for Democrats who lost all 11 states in both 2000 and 2004. When Republicans sweep the South, Democrats have to win 70 percent of the electors in the rest of the nation. That is a stiff challenge, although both Al Gore and John Kerry came close to hitting that target. Nonetheless, if Obama could take a few southern states, as Bill Clinton did in both of his victories, he would have an easier road to the White House.

What are Obama’s prospects for carrying Georgia? Obviously he must do far better than the two most recent Democratic presidential nominees. Gore lost Georgia by 300,000 votes while Kerry performed even worse, coming up 550,000 votes short. A recent InsiderAdvantage poll shows the Georgia electorate equally divided with John McCain leading Obama 44.3 – 42.7 percent while 5.6 percent prefer Libertarian Bob Barr.

Three variables will determine whether Obama wins Georgia. The one which the Obama campaign seems to be emphasizing involves increasing African-American participation. Democratic strategists speak of a half million unregistered blacks. Democrats regularly get 90 percent or more of the black vote; Obama might do even better. However a mobilized African American electorate by itself will not put Georgia in the Obama column. He will also have to do better among white voters than most recent Democratic candidates. Kerry got less than a quarter of the white vote in Georgia. In 2002 when Governor Roy Barnes and Senator Max Cleland lost reelection bids, they managed only 31 percent of the white vote. In the past, Democrats have needed almost 40 percent of the white vote to win. The third factor which affects the share of the white vote Obama would need is Barr’s performance.

If Obama boosts black participation, then the share of the white vote he needs drops. Is he on his way to increasing the African-American vote? One way to raise the black vote is to sign up the half million unregistered. Georgia registration has gone up by a bit less than 500,000 since 2004 but most of these new registrants are not black. African-American registration has gone up by 160,000 since Kerry lost. Focusing just on this year, black registration is up 120,000 since December. The increased black registration during the first five months of 2008 has hardly changed the racial makeup of Georgia’s electorate. The latest figures from the Secretary of State show that blacks constitute 27.95 percent of the registrants; at the time of the 2004 election blacks made up 27.2 percent of Georgia’s registrants. If the Georgia registered electorate is to become substantially blacker, Democrats will have to do far more between now and October when the books of eligible voters close than they have done thus far.

McCain holds to small lead in Georgia

By Matt Towery
Southern Political Report
Copyright © 2008 Creators Syndicate
7/4/2008 — An InsiderAdvantage/PollPosition survey conducted with our research partner Majority Opinion Research shows John McCain and Barack Obama locked in a tight race in Georgia, the ninth largest electoral prize in the nation. The poll also indicates that the should Obama choose former Georgia United States Senator Sam Nunn, Obama’s chances of winning Georgia in November improve.

The results:

Poll conducted July2, 2008
Statewide sample; Registered Georgia voters likely to vote in November; 502 sample; Weighted for age, race, gender, political affiliation. Margin of error +/- 4.3%

Q. 1Georgia Presidential ballot:

McCain: 46%
Obama: 44%
Barr: 4%
Undecided: 6%

Q.2 “If Barack Obama selected Georgia’s former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn as his Vice Presidential running mate, would you be more or less likely to vote for Barack Obama?”

More likely: 51%
Less likely: 11%
No difference/Undecided: 38%

[AndyTiedye]

1. Every Single Vote in Georgia is Cast on Diebold Repiglickin Electing Machinez

[RaleighNCDUer]

2. Yep. While the growing numbers are encouraging we can't forget

that GA was the test case for Diebold in 2002.

[RT Atlanta]

3. it's frustrating too

Diebold was the reason I didnt vote for Cathy Cox in the governor's race (Taylor instead).