Webb Out, Who's Up?

[ErinBerin84]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/07/webb-out-whos-up.html

God, another special mention for Bayh? They were fawning over this choice on Race to the White House too. Don't get me wrong, he wouldn't be HORRIBLE, just...disappointing to me. Some of these odds are just laughable to me as well.


Webb's Out, Who's up?

" ....whose stock is trading upward at Intrade as a result of Jim Webb's Sherman Statement today. These people have gained ground":

Bayh +2.0
Schweitzer +1.9
Reid +1.9
Warner +1.7
Hagel +1.7
Biden +1.3
Kaine +1.3
Edwards +1.0
Sebelius +0.6
Clinton +0.5...

about an even mix of Moderate White Dude and Foreign Policy Tough Dude, with a few Virginia Is For Lovers candidates thrown in. Webb crossed over all three constituencies, which is why he seemed like such an obvious name for the short list. And yes, that's Harry Reid, which ought to put to bed any notion about the efficiency of betting markets. Maybe some overseas punters heard some buzz about Jack Reed and got the two confused? I cannot explain this one away.

(snip, individual VP odds at link)

Update: You know who else I might long? Evan Bayh. Bayh would certainly not be my first choice, but that's not what matters here. I'm trying to think about this from the standpoint of the Obama campaign's paradigm, and in general the Obama campaign has tended to be very risk-averse. Bayh is polished, if not overly articulate; he's a brand name, but not one that will overshadow the nominee, and he would be acceptable to most moderates as well as most ex-Clinton supporters. There's a bit of an always-a-bridesmaid concern about Bayh that can become something of a self-fulfilling prophecy -- if he wasn't good enough for Bill Clinton, Al Gore or John Kerry, what makes him good enough now? -- but then again, Indiana has never before been a swing state, nor has the Midwest in general been so important.

[DFW]

1. Wes Clark's absence from this list is curious to say the least

[alydar]

2. Clark looks better every day

[andromedo]

3. Obama criticized Clark's remarks. Clark is out of the picture

His remarks, justified or not, stirred the pot too much.

[DFW]

5. I disagree completely, at least for now

His remarks did not stir the pot. The radical right was looking for ANYTHING to
jump on, as Clark was just being his usual calm rational self. The Republicans
stirred the pot and manufactured an incident out of thin air. Wes is, or at least
should be, very much in the picture.

[papapi]

4. I don't believe Clark is out of the picture. I would see it as a surprise attack . . .

something the repukes aren't expecting. I hope it is Clark. It would say to me that Obama is smarter than the Washington spin machine.

[harun]

6. He's not out of the picture at all (n/t)

[TwilightGardener]

7. I don't think Clark was ever IN the picture.

[Mike Daniels]

8. Never understood why people thought Webb would be a good VP prospect

The man barely won an election against a damaged candidate. Who exactly was he going to bring to the table that made people consider him a viable choice for VP

[Sensitivity]

9. He won against an established senator and prospective presidential candidate