The Daily Widget – Tuesday, July 8 – Obama 365, McCain 173 – Going Back to the Basics

[phrigndumass]

No new polls were released since yesterday, so I thought I’d “go back to the basics” today and explain what each chart and graph shows us, and answer any questions you might have. Polls will begin to come in big clumps very soon!



^ This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


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DAILY TRACKING



^ This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 would be a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projected what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ This graph is new today. It shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average).



^ This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). The scale is 0 to 1200, with 600 being a majority. It is currently at 671.70 (the highest it has ever been). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure (671.70) by 1200. Obama is winning the swing states by 55.98%, compared to 44.02% for McCain.



^ The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buy shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people use fake money).



^ I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day multiplied by each state’s current poll results. Obama currently has a 6 million vote lead over McCain (60 million to 54 million). This graph shows the daily tracking of these popular vote calculations.



^ This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone”. Missouri (brown line) is currently in The Zone for Obama.


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Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[fight4my3sons]

1. Good Morning!

Thank you for going back over everything! Sometimes I forget what something is. I'll bookmark this for reference. :)

[phrigndumass]

2. Today is a good day for refreshing memories since there's no real activity

Plus, I love blathering on about it. Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? :7

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Tinksrival]

4. Good Mornin' to you!

Nice for you to put together some pretty graphs for us. I like that one that adds Kerry. He really took a hit around the time of the Repub convention. That would be the swift-boating kicking in.
Will they be choosing their VP after Obama does? Do you think it affects who they pick?
Is the Repub convention always second? I think it won't be a factor this time. Though it all depends on the media, unfortunately.
Media sucks.
Kerry's tracking is interesting.


Thanks. I know it's early but :toast:cause:yourock:

[phrigndumass]

8. Mornin' Tinksrival :)

It seems the repubs like to wait for us to pick our VP's and hold our conventions first. I agree it probably won't be much of a factor this time, especially since our conventions are only a week apart. I think they were a month apart last time.

:toast:

Thanks! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

3. Off to work kick

Feel free to post any questions you may have. I'll be back around lunchtime. Enjoy your day!

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

5. rockin'. k&R, and thanks, phrig.

[phrigndumass]

9. Thanks dms!

:headbang: :hi:

[helderheid]

6. Rec 3 and you can haz LOL cat pic!

[phrigndumass]

10. LMAO! Funniest one yet! :)

:rofl:

Sharin' teh munchiez ...

[grantcart]

7. makes you wonder what happened in Wisconsin to fill them with so much certainty

It actually seems foolish to buy anybody over 80 as the payoff to risk seems out of whack. You have to be convinced to by at 85.

[phrigndumass]

11. Remember when you said to buy South Carolina at 8.50?

It's up to 14.50 now, lol ... I coulda made six bucks for each share. :banghead:

[grantcart]

12. did yo see this article on Rasmussen weighting?

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/rasmussens_unweighted_party_id.php

[phrigndumass]

13. I did, thanks for sharing the link

It leaves more questions than answers, though.

Why use three-month-rolling party identification weighting? The way things change quickly, it should be a running variable instead of fixed for a month. This would explain the month-over-month results of Kerry's progress in 2004, though. By looking at the graph below, it looks like big changes happened every time the calendar switched months. You can section it by month and see the difference.



May 2004: More Democratic ID
June 2004: Slightly more Democratic ID
July 2004: More Democratic ID
August 2004: More Democratic ID (until the Swift Boat ads)
September 2004: More republican ID
October 2004: Slightly more republican ID

[grantcart]

14. Linking back gets to their report and the two tables

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update


The first table basicallly is a slightly more conservative view of your work, interesting to note that they also use intrade as well as polls.

and the second table is an interesting day by day recitation of the changes by state.

Interestingly over the last 2 weeks there have been 16 reclassifications and all have been moving towards Obama, with the single exception of Colorado that was moved back a couple of days later.

In other words this pollster cannot identify a single state that had drifted closer to McCain in the last 2 weeks.

[phrigndumass]

15. Interesting!

The first table combines Intrade and Rasmussen Markets (real money and fake money), as well as their own polls, 538 poll averages, voting history, national trends. I believe the "national trends" portion is where they weight their polls by party ID.

I don't want to give the guy any money, but I'd pay for a subscription just to see more detail of that. The trading is new this year, so I wonder how they are using it.

Their results are quite conservative, yes, probably because of "voting history". Hopefully 538 will help Rasmussen even things out, since 538 is modeling more heavily on trends. Obama is definitely more trendy than Kerry or Gore.

I wonder how Obama leading by 5 points in Montana makes that state a "Leans GOP" state, lol

[grantcart]

16. Well if you look at their governor and two Senators you know that they

have no tradition of voting Democratic

[Greyskye]

17. Lunchtime K&R

The Widget just keeps on getting better!

[grantcart]

18. ah alikoto domo san

[phrigndumass]

19. ^ ^ ^ Ditto what he said

(whatever he said) only in English :7

:hi: