GOP at decade low in party ID (in NH)

[ProSense]

GOP at decade low in party ID

By Dante Scala

Let's pick up where we left off last week, and put the Democrats' current 6-point advantage in party ID (as measured by my colleague Andy Smith at the University of New Hampshire Survey Center ) in recent historical perspective.

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In 2000 and 2004, the top-of-the-ticket race was decided by a single percentage point. Eight years ago George W. Bush defeated Al Gore, 48 percent to 47 percent. Four years later, John Kerry carried New Hampshire, 50-49.

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In contrast, New Hampshire voters' party ID in the last two off-year elections veered sharply out of balance.

In 2002, Republicans enjoyed a 9-point advantage, 47-38, in the last days of the campaign (15 percent described themselves as independent). On Election Day, Craig Benson steamrolled Mark Fernald by a 3-2 margin, John Sununu defeated Jeanne Shaheen by a larger-than-expected margin of 20,000 votes, and the GOP enjoyed sweeping victories downticket.

Four years later, Democrats reaped the benefits of a significant party ID advantage. The party's seven-point margin (46-39 with 16 percent independent) translated into a virtual clean sweep of the GOP.

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Ah, 2002, year of the phone-jamming.