David Corn: Will Baghdad Pull the Rug Out From Under McCain?

[babylonsister]

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/davidcorn/2008/07/will-baghdad-pull-the-rug-out.html

Will Baghdad Pull the Rug Out From Under McCain?

By David Corn | July 8, 2008 11:59 AM


Forget the recent manufactured news about whether Barack Obama was shifting his position on Iraq. (He's always said that he has a goal of withdrawing troops within 16 months and would aim to do so in a responsible and careful manner, meaning that it could take longer or shorter.) The real story is this: in the general election, one candidate says, This war was a mistake and we must end it and begin disengagement; the other proclaims, This war was righteous and we must keep our troops there (maybe up to 100 years) and win it. Given public opinion on the war, it's no wonder that the Republicans and the McCain campaign want to muddy up this stark difference--and the best way for them to do that is to make it seem as if Barack Obama has an unsteady hand when it comes to the war. So expect the desperate GOPers to pounce on any Obama remark that they can twist into purported proof that Obama is not really sure what he wants to do about Iraq.

But on Iraq the McCainiacs have more to worry about then Obama. They are being undermined by Baghdad. On Monday, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said that he wants some sort of timetable for a U.S. troops withdrawal. Though his national security adviser added that any timetable would be conditioned on the ability of Iraqi forces to provide security, this was the first time the PM had mentioned a schedule for disengagement. (All politics is local: Maliki's party faces a stiff challenge in the upcoming provincial elections from Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who has called for the departure of U.S. military forces.)

So how can McCain and his gang now accuse Obama of being a defeatist surrender-monkey when his call for a timetable for withdrawal is echoed by the leadership of Iraq? This is a real problem for McCain. He has no edge on Obama when it comes to the economy. His only hope of upstaging Obama--policy-wise--is on national security matters, with the Iraq war front and center. But if the Iraqis don't buy the absolute necessity of U.S. troops remaining in Iraq, what does McCain have to offer? (How do you say nada in Arabic?)

I've been repeating this for a year--sorry to do so again--but the reality on the ground in Iraq in the fall will have an impact on the U.S. election. The connection used to be obvious: bad news there would be bad news for the Republicans here. But there's now another possibility: good news there could be bad news for Republicans here. If there are too many explosions and little political progress in Iraq, McCain could pay a political price on Election Day. But if the Iraqis decide they want to go it on their own with the Americans gone, McCain would have no Iraq policy left. Sure, he could claim the surge worked and try to claim credit. But voters, as the cliche goes, tend not to reward presidential candidates for past actions; elections, the consultants keep reminding us, are about the future. Americans don't want other Iraqs in the future. And without Iraq, McCain is merely a sometimes quirky Republican ex-maverick who has yet to learn how to speak convincingly about the number-one issue, the economy. He needs Iraq. But he needs it not too hot and not too cold--and the stove is far beyond his control.

[Danger Mouse]

1. Heh, I wonder how the situation will shift if Al-Sadr actually wins?

[panader0]

2. al-Maliki is showing that he is a player.

Every leader in the world want Obama over mcsame in the general.

[Jazzgirl]

3. I believe McCain is quite capable of pulling the rug

out from under his own feet all by himself. :evilgrin:

[babylonsister]

4. And he's already doing a mighty fine job. At least, I'm not impressed. nt

[Kdillard]

5. I can't wait to see how this will be spun by the McCain campaign. Pulling the rug from under him is

right

[babylonsister]

6. McCain could be toast if Maliki doesn't retract what he said. And he's

been known to do that, too. No pressure from us. x(

[BrotherBuzz]

7. McCain's got his horses hitched and is Hell bent on crossing the Big Muddy

This isn't going to end well. Can you say Schadenfreude? :rofl:

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

8. Maliki sees that Obama is the front-runner and will likely be the next President

Maliki is also trying to maintain power at home. I think he sees the writing on the wall and wants to get ahead of the curve. He knows in all likelihood he will have to deal with a President who will gradually withdraw U.S. troops and he has to take this issue away from Al Sadr and win his own re-election. Obama recently reaffirmed his intention to begin troop withdrawls when elected and I'm sure that Maliki hung on his every word. Maliki's mention of the words "withdrawl" and "timetable" at this time is no coincidence.

[MarjorieG]

9. Alternate veiw to take away losing issue for McCain, and prove surge worked. He'll always have Iran.

[babylonsister]

11. Except the surge hasn't worked; it's a figment of the media's imagination...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x370127

[sourmilk]

10. The reality is that the Iraqi election is in October.

Perhaps the UN has provided the October Surprise this cycle.

If you were trying to get elected to office in Iraqi Parliament, what would you be campaigning for?

Permanent US presence? More occupation? Oil/Gas PSAs? Balkanisation?



On Iraq, McThuselsh is a DEAD DUCK.