Obama/Biden will beat McCain/Romney by 4-5 points (which is a lot)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Some thoughts/predictions:

Biden will get the VP nod because he's 1) paternal, 2) Catholic, 3) a great attack dog, 4) Catholic, 5) credible on foreign relations, and 7) Catholic

(If Clinton was ever in the veep-stakes, she's certainly out after today's FISA vote, which must have left the Obama camp steaming.)

Romney is all but a forced move because Michigan is this years Florida/Ohio, and Romney can at least pretend talk about the economy a little, unlike McCain.

There will be times between now and election day when Obama is distinctly ahead (like right now) and times McCain is distinctly ahead (probably sometime on September), but it's hard to see how McCain can cross the finish line.

The election will end up being a malaise election with lots of dissatisfaction over the choices. That means a base election, and that is very good for Democrats everywhere. The Dem-Pug base enthusiasm-gap is immense.

Third party and protest votes might end up being 7-9 percent nationally, but essentially irrelevant except in a handful of states.

Probably not a 1980 style landslide. I see it as more like Clinton/Dole in 1996. A few points difference in the popular vote, but a quite comfortable Dem electoral college win. Senate +4-5. House + a few.

The Malaki call for a timetable is not the bouquet for Democrats it's being painted. It would not be helpful to take Iraq off the table as an issue, which is what would happen if the Iraqi government actually formalized a request that we leave by a date certain. Iraq is a very good issue.

Hopefully Stevens and Ginsberg will be replaced on SCOTUS by equally good people.

[StevieM]

1. I think that there are four people at the top of the list for each candidate

For Obama it is:

1) Joe Biden
2) Evan Bayh
3) Tim Kaine
4) Tom Vilsack

No particular order, just listed alphabetically.

For McCain it is:

1) Sarah Palin
2) Tim Pawlenty
3) Mitt Romney
4) Mark Sanford

Again, listed in alphabetical order

I could be totally wrong--after all, we are trying to read the candidates' minds, and that is hard to do.

Steve

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

2. Your lists seem reasonable to me

[Renew Deal]

4. Bayh just doesn't do much for Obama

He's a fairly unknown senator from a not so big state. He's not an attack dog. He doesn't hav anything that Obama doesn't except years in the Senate (and a DLC tool).

[Motown_Johnny]

3. why are #2 and #7......

exactly the same?


Do you honestly believe that his being Catholic is that important?


Reproductive rights will trump Biden's religion for most Catholics.


This could easily backfire with Priests refusing Communion to him of other politicians who are pro choice. To many of these stories in the MSM just gives them a reason to explore Sen. Obama's religious background.. over and over and over again.



I agree that his being Catholic could be a positive but it isn't THAT important.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

6. Catholics are the key demographic this cycle

Whoever wins Catholics probably wins the election.

Whoever wins Michigan probably wins the election.

Biden is almost a perfect VP candidate all around because he's such an unflappable attack dog, and Obama really needs one. He cannot be very negative himself without wrecking his image.

Biden isn't the ultimate Catholic candidate, but he has so much else going for him that I expect his faith to be decisive in the selection process. It could be worth a full percent nationally.

[snowbear]

5. You're back K and H?

.....

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

7. Just had something I wanted to say about FISA. Figured I'd post some predictions while visiting

My reason for leaving was, and remains, because I intend to vote for Obama.

The only thing I know of that could prevent me from voting for Obama is interacting with Obama's most... ummm, let's say enthusiastic supporters on DU.

So I had to leave.

(Thankfully, the most thuggish DUers are here on DU hunting heretics, rather than out in the real world making ordinary people hate our candidate.)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. Clarification of the Iraq observation:

In saying I wouldn't want to see Iraq taken off the table as an issue, I am not suggesting a benefit to prolonging the war.

The real war of bullets and people will go on this fall, day by day, whether it's a campaign issue or not.

The point is that if the Iraqi parliament passed a firm law saying the US must be out by January 1st, 2010, then Obama and McCain would suddenly have the same position on Iraq. Events would have mooted all domestic arguments about when to end the war. (Unless McCain proposed just nuking the disloyal Iraqi government, which he would not... at least not in an election.)

The thing is, in presidential politics people don't much care who was right or wrong about something if it's not an issue anymore.

In any event, it is doubtful that the Iraqi government will throw us out anytime soon.