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Nate Silver's (538) brilliant assessment of New Yorker story: RW narratives blown away by article

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beachmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-08 12:40 PM
Original message
Nate Silver's (538) brilliant assessment of New Yorker story: RW narratives blown away by article
Edited on Mon Jul-14-08 12:41 PM by beachmom
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/07/when-memes-collide.html

Well, no shit he's ambitious. For any American to go from a relatively unprivileged childhood (or a privileged one for that matter) to be on the doorstep of the Presidency (sic) by the time he's age 46 requires a perfect storm of luck, intelligence, and ambition. Obama has ample amounts of each.

But the article is more remarkable for revealing what Obama is not.

One, he's not some Pierre Trudeau type of academic. Obama became interested in politics very early, and seemed to have some keen understanding of his upside potential. The sometimes languid pace of academia was not really compatible with that.

Two, Obama was not corrupt. He knew how to navigate the rules of the system. But he didn't cheat the system. Obama succeeded, for instance, in disqualifying Alice Palmer from the ballot in the Illinois State Senate because she faked hundreds of signatures to get her name on it, and then Obama called her out. That's maybe not the most mannerly, tea-and-crumpets way of doing things. But Obama didn't cheat. Palmer had cheated. What Obama did was to exploit some of the inefficiencies of the Chicago machine system. Tony Rezko donates, though legal channels, a bunch of money because he expects you to behave like a typical machine politician and do him illegal favors? What to do? Well, you take his money. And then you don't do him the favors.

Third, Obama is not any kind of radical, and particularly not any kind of radical black nationalist. His associations with people like Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers may have arisen out of a certain amount of political convenience; they were significant players in the South Side political scene. But there is no evidence that he shared many of their political ideas. Hyde Park is not some liberal enclave in the way that Berkley or Boulder is. It is, rather, a place where people are very tolerant of different ideas. Liberal and even radical ideas, but notably also, conservative ones (where do Leon Kass and John Mearsheimer teach -- and where did Milton Friedman?). Hyde Park prides itself on being a laboratory of free thought and free speech, and so these people can lead a relatively happy coexistence there. But their views do not represent the consensus, and there is certainly no evidence that they represented Obama's.


Nate's conclusion, very relevant to the cover of the magazine:

And so while some on the right (and others, less coherently, on the loopy left) will try and excoriate Obama for the political equivalent of not helping old ladies to cross the street, a lot of their favorite narratives about Obama are blown up by this article. Hence, the irony of the cover art.
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liberalmuse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-08 12:49 PM
Response to Original message
1. Some are saying the article paints an unfavorable picture.
Edited on Mon Jul-14-08 12:49 PM by liberalmuse
I disagree for many of the reasons in the article you've posted.
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beachmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-08 12:52 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Yep. I've been following Obama since 2004. I saw him as quite cautious
Edited on Mon Jul-14-08 12:53 PM by beachmom
in the Senate in '05 and '06, much to my disappointment. But at that time, it was good politics. Kerry and Feingold did most of the heavy lifting, but in the case of Kerry, he took all the hits from the Bush administration as well as fellow Democrats, all while Obama bided his time. That's ruthless and ambitious. But he had the 2002 speech against the Iraq War as his political capital, so it was the right move for him. Then in Dec. '06 he finally embraced the Kerry/Feingold amendment. He knew the timing was right.
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1Hippiechick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-08 01:00 PM
Response to Original message
3. More people will see the cover and either not have access to or not read the article. Cheap shot
cover. If it is so well understood by its readers, why was it necessary to offer an explanation about the cover? That same cartoon could have been WITH the article inside the magazine rather than on the cover.

Sensationalism. Yellow journalism. Controversy sells, IM not-so-humble O.
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malik flavors Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-08 01:23 PM
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4. 538 is a must read site. Nate has some of the best write-ups on the web.
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beachmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-14-08 04:13 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Yep. That is a great site.
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