Rasmussen: Obama Leads Bush by Twenty, But Clinton Does Better Against McCain

[highplainsdem]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/obama_leads_bush_by_twenty_but_clinton_does_better_against_mccain

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Barack Obama says a vote for John McCain is a vote for George W. Bush’s third term, but a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that the Democratic hopeful would have a much easier time of it if he were actually running against the incumbent president this year.

At a time when Obama and McCain are locked in a tight race, the poll shows that Obama would rout President Bush 54% to 34%. Looking at the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, McCain is outperforming Bush by more than 15 percentage points.

The poll results also show that Obama would have an easier go of it against two of McCain’s chief rivals for the Republican nomination. The presumptive Democratic nominee leads former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney by eight points 49% to 41% and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 50% to 39%.

However, McCain fares better against Obama than he does against two other prominent Democrats. New York Senator Hillary Clinton leads McCain by eight points, 50% to 42%. Former Vice President Al Gore, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2000, leads McCain 50% to 43%.

These numbers help explain why Election 2008 is competitive even though events so heavily favor the Democrats -- because the Republicans are on course to nominate their strongest possible general election candidate but the Democrats are not. Perhaps even more importantly, the data suggests that voters don’t see a potential McCain Administration as the third term of President Bush.

This was a survery of 1,000 likely voters, conducted 7/13.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/pt_survey_toplines/july_2008/toplines_possible_candidates_july_13_2008


I'm bringing this article and survey up for two reasons.

1) It backs up what I've said before about HRC being the strongest possible running mate for Obama.

2) It suggests that the most effective attack Obama can make on McCain is to link him to Bush, by making specific points about Bush policies that McCain would continue. (Calling him McSame and other nicknames, much as it might amuse us, isn't going to help.) National ads that could run through a list of policies, illustrated by effective photos or newspaper headlines, might be most effective here.

[Ilsa]

1. Nevermind nt

[babylonsister]

2. Ummm, Clinton's not running. nt

[Drunken Irishman]

3. It doesn't back up anything you say.

Clinton leads because she's not running a campaign anymore and isn't the target of attacks. It's easy to lead when no one is coming after you like they currently are with Obama. I'm sorry, but this poll really is bunk, since she hasn't been campaigning for two months now.

[tridim]

4. If Hillary turns out to be the best choice I'm sure Obama will choose her.

If not, he'll choose someone else.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

12. Yep, it's his ball to call. As someone who isn't a very big Hillary fan, if Hill gets the nod

then Obama gets the same support from me that he has now; 100%.

[Danger Mouse]

5. He'll choose who HE decides it the best choice for HIM.

[Skittles]

36. thank you for emphasizing that MANLY stuff

sheesh

[Danger Mouse]

40. you're reading too much into it.

:shrug:

[Skittles]

44. yeah sure

[Danger Mouse]

55. bullshit...the emphasis on 'his' and 'him' was ONLY because I was pointing out that the choice is

HIS...I could've just as easily said OBAMA.

[merh]

51. thank you for being one of the reason women have such a

difficult time in life and politics -

It is not always about gender, a "he" is just a "he" when it is used in a sentence. EH was just stating that it was one person's choice and one person's choice only, that one person being a "he", that one person being Obama.

As a female, posts like your's make me cringe - not every woman thinks all things political are about gender, either pro-female or anti-female.

Some of us believe that the fight for equality means equality - equality for all. No minority has the inside track on being discriminated against and/or in the fight for equality.

[ErinBerin84]

6. the Clinton poll numbers don't really mean anything since she does not have a campaign running

against her right now...Chuck Todd says that this happens to many candidates who drop out, including Edwards (in 2004).

edit: just to echo everyone here, I would have no problem with Hillary being VP, if that's what Obama decides.

[AllentownJake]

7. I have no problem with Hillary being VP

However people vote top of ticket...not bottom of ticket and Hillary hasn't been attacked by the right in over 3 months. Polling people who aren't actively running for office and facing critism from the other political party isn't very informative.

[JoFerret]

8. But she's not the candidate

-so that doesn't help.

(No reason to be complacent but this should be the election season that an ax murderer democrat should win.)

[Abacus]

9. There is no McCain - Obama question in this poll

National Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters
Conducted July 13, 2008
By Rasmussen Reports

1* Okay… suppose that, instead of the current Presidential nominees, you had a choice this year to vote for Republican George W. Bush or Democrat Barack Obama. For whom would you vote?

34% Bush

54% Obama

10% Some other candidate

2% Not sure

2* Fine… what if the choice was between Republican John McCain or Democrat Al Gore? For whom would you vote?

43% McCain

50% Gore

4% Some other candidate

4% Not sure

3* Next… if you had a choice between Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Barack Obama, for whom would you vote?

41% Romney

49% Obama

5% Some other candidate

4% Not sure

4* Just two more… what if the choice was between Republican John McCain and Democrat Hillary Clinton? For whom would you vote?

42% McCain
50% Clinton

5% Some other candidate

3% Not sure

5* Okay… if you had a choice between Republican Mike Huckabee and Democrat Barack Obama, for whom would you vote?

39% Huckabee

50% Obama

7% Some other candidate

4% Not sure

NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence

What McCain-Obama numbers are they using? The didn't match them up in this poll and from what I understand, the daily tracking polls use different methodologies.

[CakeGrrl]

10. This doesn't really apply to Hillary's drawing power as VP

Just to use one counterargument among several: The WV and KY 'whites only' faction of her base does not get to vote for her at the top of the ticket. With Obama at the top, they aren't going to vote for him even if she's on it as VP.

Strength as a running mate doesn't just equate to bringing some voters along - he has to work with his VP after he's in the WH, so he has to be thinking about who's best in the long term as well.

[high density]

11. Note to Rasmussen: Al Gore and Hillary Clinton aren't in the running

What an absurd poll. Why don't thy poll a reanimated Ronald Reagan vs. McCain while they're at it?

[paulk]

13. you're wasting your time posting this here

[JoFerret]

54. Why's that? n/t

[paulk]

67. because any thread that remotely casts Hillary in a positive light

is sure to be overwhelmed by the Hillary hate that has come to define Democratic Underground.

[JoFerret]

68. Gotcha

It does seem like the deadenders just cannot let go.

Big mistake in my view. And reflects very poorly on them and their understanding of politics.

[paulk]

69. DU has become useful mostly in that

the majority opinion here is bound to be 180 degrees from the real world.

It's a good barometer.

[JoFerret]

71. At least it used to be in a

progressive and pro democrat direction in spite of the differences.

Obama is a very strong candidate. We are going to win in Novemeber I don't understand the continued hostility.

[anonymous171]

14. Delegates! It's not too late! Switch to Gore!

:P

[Beacool]

15. Hillary was also leading before she dropped out.

But nooooo, let's not have a truly united party.

Hillary is old politics, Bill is a problem, her negatives are high, she was mean to Obama during the primaries, etc., etc. etc.

:crazy:

[highplainsdem]

18. The people who'd rather bash the Clintons than have a unified party and the best possible ticket

may cost us the election, if Obama listens to them rather than paying attention to all the millions of votes Clinton got in the primaries, and how well she does in polls against McCain.

We can't have a stronger ticket than two Democratic politicians who could each beat McCain.

[Political Heretic]

24. I'm fine with Clinton VP, but I also trust Obama to pick the best choice.

If that is Clinton that WOO HOO Obama/Clinton 08! If it is someone else then I support that ticket too and trust that it was the best choice with all the information I don't have.

[Beacool]

31. Well, then you're very trusting. n/t

[Political Heretic]

66. I am, after I have reason to be.

It has served me well in life.

[Zhade]

29. No, she wasn't. Revisionist history much? Obama led in EVERY METRIC.

Including the popular vote.

Why do you feel compelled to lie? He won fair and square.

[Beacool]

30. She had led in head to head contest against McCain.

She was doing better against McCain than Obama. Check Gallup.

[lojasmo]

35. All within MOE.

This thread is a crock. According to a poll of the two people in this room, Clinton would have gotten clobbered by McCain.

[Zhade]

53. Uh, once again, that's not true.

NT!

[karynnj]

57. She was NOT leading - he had over 100 more delegates

and there is no real "popular" vote in the primaries - that was a media pushed Clinton fantasy - brought up only when they saw at SuperTuesday that they could lose.

[SoCalDem]

62. If only she'd had more delegates or we'd had 71 states

:rofl:

[grantcart]

16. Well Rasussen is also showing the race tied while two new national polls are showing 8-9%

http://thepage.time.com/2008/07/15/new-national-poll-numbers/

Obama 50, McCain 42
Obama favored on the economy, the deficit and immigration.

McCain considered more knowledgeable in world affairs, better prepared for military leadership, better able to handle “an unexpected major crisis.”



http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/07/15/latest-quinnipiac-poll-gives-obama-solid-lead/

The latest Quinnipiac University Poll gives Barack Obama a national 50%-41% lead over rival John McCain, bolstered by strong support among blacks, women, and young voters. McCain has a slight lead among men as well as white voters. The candidates split the spoils among independents and seniors.



Also Rasmussen's state by state polling is also showing 8%


suffice it to say rasmussen has just made a fool of themselves with their national numbers

[JackORoses]

17. give it up. Hillary will not be running for President anytime soon.

[NattPang]

19. It is easy to lead when no one is attacking you.

Which has been the case with Hillary since a long time ago.
The GOP encouraged voters to vote for her in fact.

comparing apples with oranges makes fruit salad,
not a fair analysis.

[TheDonkey]

20. This has to be the most useless poll every to have money wasted on.

[RNdaSilva]

21. So?

[book_worm]

22. So are you cherry picking polls? Two other polls nationally have Obama ahead of McCain by 8-10

[Political Heretic]

23. This confirms it for me. Rassmussen has an anti-obama agenda.

Not only do there polls lag dramatically behind everyone else, but the fact that they are even DOING a "Clinton" poll tells me they are trying to stir up shit in any way they can.

Clinton lost. She's a great senator and party elder, but the primary is over. Bringing this up can ONLY serve the agenda of tying to create trouble for Obama that he DOES NOT HAVE.

[MarjorieG]

25. Why are they still polling with Hillary? An agenda?

[NattPang]

26. They should wait till she is attacked by the GOP and the media

for a month, and then they can poll her.

[nc4bo]

34. ^^ajup. this just about wraps it up for me too :S nt

[HughMoran]

27. MOE

totally meaningless conclusions except for the 20 point margin. Saying 8 is different than 6 has no meaning - what a bunch of morons...

[HughMoran]

28. Wow, 30 reactionary posts

GD:P is still a bizarre and reactionary place :(

[AtomicKitten]

32. Again, no thanks.

Seriously, please report back to the Mother Ship that Obama will make up his own damn mind thank you very much.

Trying to twist his arm on this merely points to the smoldering debris of her inevitability.

The presumptuous of this drive is tacky. Really.

[thewiseguy]

37. looks like someone is not over the primaries

[AtomicKitten]

39. My guess is he'll go with someone who hasn't demeaned his readiness to be CIC.

in other words anybody but Hillary

[OwnedByFerrets]

33. Uh, I thought the primary was over.

Color me shocked.:silly:

[RNdaSilva]

38. Check out...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6505618

[PM7nj]

41. I've noticed a common theme with all your posts.

:shrug:

[Firespirit]

42. The only thing of practical value that I take from this poll

It's apparent that, whatever polling data might indicate regarding the public, Rasmussen's personal stand on the Schrodinger's Cat problem is the parallel-universe rather than the Copenhagen solution.

[Imagevision]

43. locked in a tight race? - only according to Rasmussen...

[niceypoo]

45. The primaries rage on....

...in the minds of some.

[rox63]

46. Psssst: Hillary lost

She has endorsed Obama. Maybe you should follow her advice about who to vote for this fall.

[davidpdx]

47. Another thread pushing the idea that Hillary is the only candidate

for VP. How original!

[highplainsdem]

48. You obviously can't read. I said "strongest possible running mate." Of course there are other

possibilities. But polls, and the votes she got during the primaries, indicate she's the best VP choice to ensure a Democratic victory. The latest Quinnipiac poll also makes it clear that the Clinton-haters in the party are in the minority. Get over it.

[davidpdx]

49. No, you get over it

almost every thread you've posted has been pushing the Hillary is the only vp choice or bashing Obama. It's time to stop the primary crap.

[merh]

50. primaries are over

wish you folks would grow up

[azmouse]

52. So how many threads about this subject can you make?

Isn't one more than enough? :eyes:

[detectivecastro]

56. 20% wow

Huge lead as expected. Bush is the worst president ever.

[scheming daemons]

58. She's not going to be the nominee... take your PUMA shit somewhere else.

[quakerboy]

59. Where in the survey is this?

It would be helpful to actually link or post the full survey in question(or are the results shown the full survey?), because the results listed in the article NEVER ONCE has a direct Obama to McCain match up. Therefore, at least with the given information, the inferences drawn are vastly misleading. A

Correct me if there is more there, but as far as I can tell, they have Clinton 50 McCain 42, and then Obama 54 Bush 34. They then Refer to other polling to say that Obama does less well against McCain? That seems a bit.. questionable.

as to #2, I agree. More Bush in peoples faces helps us. More Bush tied to McCain really helps us.

Edited because I hit post rather than spell check.

[zulchzulu]

60. If Hillary Clinton is the VP nominee, two things happen...

1. We lose in the General Election

2. I immediately stop doing grassroots work for Obama.

[SoCalDem]

61. Stupid way to take polls.. Wonder how Obama stacks up against John Wayne or Bob Hope

:rofl:

[Awsi Dooger]

63. Bob Hope was foreign born

Ineligible. Unless dying here reverses it.

[SoCalDem]

64. Eeek. I forgot that.. Well I wonder how he would poll against Wayne Newton then

about as relevant as what they polled for :)

[HCE SuiGeneris]

65. Who gives a rat's ass how Clinton polls? She is not in the running...

:crazy:

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

70. who's been attacking Hillary Clinton lately?