Gallup and Rassmussen National Polls Continue to Embarass Themselves

[grantcart]

Gallup and Rassmussen National Polls repudiated by two polls today

Yesterday I ran a thread suggesting that the national polls by Gallup and Rasmussen made no sense, with every state poll showing McCain's support dropping.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6502086&mesg_id=6502086

Today confirmed that opnion with two national polls confirming what the state by state numbers clearly show

Obama has an 8-9% lead in the national popular numbers.

Rasmussen and Gallup should be embarassed that their national daily tracking polls continue to show a virtual dead heat with Gallup showing Obama +3 and Rasmussen Obama +1.

Quinnipiac is showing Obama +9 and ABC News Obama + 8. Moreover people who follow Phrgndumass's daily thread will notice that the total of state polls has been running at +5-6% Obama and that is based on some very old state polls.

Message for Gallup and Rasmussen

Its pretty embarassing when you get your asses handed to you by such progressive news sources as

the WALL STREET JOURNAL and ABC NEWS

I mean please try and maintain some self respect in your profession - this is after all your 'superbowl'.

Quinnipiac and ABC News

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1192&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0

With commanding leads among women and young voters and near unanimous support from black voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has a 50 - 41 percent lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll of likely voters released today.

http://thepage.time.com/2008/07/15/new-national-poll-numbers/

Obama 50, McCain 42
Obama favored on the economy, the deficit and immigration.

McCain considered more knowledgeable in world affairs, better prepared for military leadership, better able to handle “an unexpected major crisis.”

[tekisui]

1. They want a horse race?

Thanks for staying on this discrepancy.

[Breeze54]

2. I've been telling you that for months but you told me to.....

STFU.... :eyes:

Glad you finally caught on.

[writes3000]

3. Rasmussen has Obama up +4 today. Perhaps they're catching on.

Love your posts, grantcart.

[BluegrassDem]

4. I recall Chuck Todd basically blasting those daily tracking polls

I'm paraphrasing here, but Chuck essentially said those tracking polls aren't worth the paper they're written on.

[grantcart]

7. yes he did

[RNdaSilva]

5. Agree...

Looking for comfort? Check out Intrade. http://www.intrade.com/

This was very interesting, if you missed it on ABC's 20/20 here it is: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QW46V4XNxwY

As a predictor Intrade is hard to beat, e.g, the President Elect will be Barack Obama.

Come mid September one of the pollsters is bound to be somewhat accurate. Until then...

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John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election

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[grantcart]

6. well you need to have a warning it is Stoessel lol

That is why phrgndumass and I established a new metric WEA that includes both polls and intrade

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6502391


You may have seen this in Wikipedia on wisdom of crowds


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_crowds

[RNdaSilva]

8. That is, by far, my most favorite thread...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6502391, et al, that is.

In general, there's too much on some topics here, i.e, New Yorker cover. Even Senator Obama would agree with this...per his interview on Larry King tonight.

[grantcart]

13. either that link is bad or you have a devilish sense of humor lol

[RNdaSilva]

17. Weird, I do have a devilish sense of humor, but...

was a copy and paste error.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6502391

[cliffordu]

9. Thank you grantcart!!!! As usual, GREAT WORK.....

I hate the fucking polls. I love it when you puncture bogus numbers, though.

c

K&R

Edit for speling(sic)

[berni_mccoy]

10. Feels Great to See You VINDICATED by the New Polls! Great Job! K&R!

[grantcart]

12. Evidently we are vindicating Breeze who saw all this some time ago

(see up thread lol)

[fight4my3sons]

11. k&r

:thumbsup:

[AtomicKitten]

14. That's the kind of feet to the fire work I like to see!

[crimsonblue]

15. Rasmussan hasn't had any credibility ALL year

They vastly overstated Obama's support in the primaries, only to be bitch slapped once the results came out.,

[randr]

16. Remember how Gulliani showed up in the running?

Polls are bullshit.

[Hekate]

18. When Mr. H asked how Obama & McCain could possibly be neck & neck, as shown in some polls...

... I pointed out that nearly all the "dirty" voting machines are still in place and that by rigging the opinion poll results leading up to the election the Repubs could make "close" election results seem plausible. That is, a close win for McCain, as in 2000.

Ten years ago I absolutely was not a conspiracy theorist -- I would have said this was crazy talk. Today --> :tinfoilhat:

We will have to put aside our petty bickering and work like dogs to make this election such a landslide that Obama will win without the slightest doubt.

Hekate

[WeDidIt]

19. A tight race is in the MSM's, Gallup's, and Rasmussen's best interest

I keep saying it. Even if it's not close all of the above will project the image that it's close.

A close race equates to ratings and ratings equate to money in the MSM's pocket and thus the MSM can continue paying Gallup and Rasmussen which equates to money in their pockets.

It's all about money.

[The Backlash Cometh]

20. I believe Gallup is shamelessly Republican.