Are Obama and Mc Ebbing or Flowing..

[emilyg]

About a week ago, Republican media specialist Alex Castellanos asked pollster Scott Rasmussen to add a question to one of his surveys: If the November election were between Barack Obama and George W. Bush, who would you vote for? Obama crushed Bush 54-34.

Noting that tracking polls generally show just a 2 to 4 point edge for Obama over John McCain, Castellanos said the most obvious conclusion is that "McCain is not Bush." But more importantly, Castellanos argued, "It means McCain is not running against the Obama who won Iowa, but the more polarizing Democrat Hillary Clinton was beating like a drum in Texas, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, etc."

In the current political environment, according to Castellanos, "where the GOP is in disgrace, the President is unpopular, gasoline is 5 bucks a gallon, housing prices are sinking, and the economy is in the toilet," Obama's slim lead "means he is not an acceptable Democrat. . . . Obama is in big trouble."

Rasmussen himself is not prepared to draw such dramatic conclusions, but he does think the data send a clear warning to the Obama camp:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/15/are-obama-and-mccain-ebbi_n_112972.html

[Tarheel_Dem]

1. I'm sure this will be deleted as all my responses to Clinton supporters....

seem to be, but please get over it already. There's a new Quinnipiac poll out today that shows Obama with a 9 pt. advantage nationally. And if you're holding out for some convention floor fight "miracle"......puhleez.

[emilyg]

2. Address your concerns to Huffington - not to me

I posted - did not write this.

[Tarheel_Dem]

5. But you felt the need to share the gloom & doom here. Why is that?....nt

[emilyg]

8. Life is not all happy talk.

Don't hide from gloom - try to change it.

[JoFerret]

11. Stop being such a damned

dismal deadender. (please)

[Name removed]

14. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[MarjorieG]

3. The populist Hillary, new look for those primaries, was always going to win primaries.

No assurance she'd win now. What is clear is the media drum beat of Straight Talk McCain, Obama a typical politician flip-flopper, has perhaps tamped enthusiasm, and prevented the public to get a good look at McCain.

I hope we can get a break on the national narrative, but the states polling better means we are progressing.

I feel like we're against every media outlet.

Glad we took charge today and keep at it. A lot of Hillary support is comfort with name brand and Bill. I'm still not sure that would be enough in the general.

We need the different kind of politician rep back. Somehow. He still wants change, still that guy, and the blogs need to understand and promote that. Put FISA aside, as the filibuster no one else in the Senate wanted.

[Labors of Hercules]

4. Oh NOES!!! What'll we do???

Obama isn't winning over mill workers and rednecks fast enough!!!

shhhhhiiiiiiiitttttt!!!! :evilgrin:

[emilyg]

6. Get your arse out there

get a job in a mill and convince them. The redneck part - no suggestion.

[Labors of Hercules]

12. actually, I got the redneck part covered...

*burp*

[emilyg]

13. HeeHee!

[grantcart]

7. Ras and Gallup have humiliated themselves with their national numbers

Two polls out today show that they are 8 points off their numbers from a few days ago

Moreover even more embarassing Ras state by state polls are showing a landslide - apparently they never bother to add their state polls together.

Roughly Ras state polls are showing Obama with 120 EV advantage and 6 million popular vote advantage

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6502391

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6505618&mesg_id=6505618

[emilyg]

9. TY

[Hippo_Tron]

10. Alex Castellanos is a Republican strategist who wants to make Obama look weak

Here's a more plausible explanation.

1) Hypothetical polls like Bush vs Obama are hypothetical. Take them with a grain of salt.

2) McCain tops out around 42% in nearly every poll. Indeed McCain is stronger than Bush (to the tune of 5-8 points) but the fact that he tops out that low is a sign of the GOP's weakness.

Barack Obama is still somewhat of an unknown commodity and will be until he gives his convention speech and that accounts for the rapidly shifting polls. That said, when Obama loses ground in the polls, he doesn't lose it to McCain he loses it to undecided. That is probably the most serious sign of weakness with the GOP brand.

Additionally, this is still the pre-season and barring any major screw-ups, this is all moot once the conventions happen. Summer is important for building your organization, raising money, and solidifying your base. Having a decent lead in the opinion polls is good because you get better press coverage but in terms of actually predicting how people will vote in the fall, polls this early are still pretty unreliable.

[AtomicKitten]

16. Funny, that's exactly why this piece was posted here.

Alex Castellanos is a Republican strategist who wants to make Obama look weak.

The plotting on the internets is in full bloom. Some think they can persuade some 200+ superdelegates to switch to Hillary for a coup at the convention.

[scheming daemons]

15. Hillary is not going to be the nominee... . quit trying......

[emilyg]

17. You should have been a comic.