The Daily Widget – Thursday, July 17 – Obama 356, McCain 182 – Monthly Scorecard

[phrigndumass]

The Daily Widget celebrates its two-month anniversary! :party:

The 19th falls on a Saturday this month, so I thought I’d do the monthly scorecard today. And I picked a very good day to do it, as Obama sees huge jumps in trading for his swing states today.

Only three items are down from last month: Obama’s two electoral vote projections from Electoral-Vote.com and FiveThirtyEight.com, and Intrade trading for Nebraska. The national daily tracking polls stay flat from last month, and everything else improves for Obama.



About those huge jumps in trading for the swing states today … Indiana is now in the Zone, moving up 4.80 to 40.00. Topping Indiana’s move is Wisconsin, taking a leap to 84.90 from 78.00 yesterday. Not to be outdone, Michigan jumps 4.40 to 79.50 while New Mexico steps further away from the Zone, up 3.20 to 72.00. Also seeing good increases are South Carolina (+2.00), Iowa (+1.50) and Missouri (+1.40).

Obama is now leading overall in the swing states with 57.1% to McCain’s 42.9% (+14.2), according to our Wigand Electoral Average Total.


* * * * * * *


NEW STATE POLLS

Um, oops! Remember what I said yesterday about McCain not leading in a state by 20 points or greater? Well, Kansas has stepped up. McCain leads Obama by 23 points there, according to Rasmussen. Oregon gets stronger for Obama, but not quite safe yet. California continues to show a huge Obama lead.


California – Obama 54, McCain 30 (The Field Poll, 7/14, +/- 3.9, 672 LV)
Kansas – Obama 35, McCain 58 (Rasmussen, 7/14, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Oregon – Obama 49, McCain 40 (Rasmussen, 7/14, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)


* * * * * * *


WIDGETS



^ This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


* * * * * * *


DAILY TRACKING



^ This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ Wigand vs. National Polls. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average).



^ This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). The scale is 0 to 1200, with 600 being a majority. It is currently at 671.70 (the highest it has ever been). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure (671.70) by 1200. Obama is winning the swing states by 55.98%, compared to 44.02% for McCain.



^ Wigand vs. Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


* * * * * * *





Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[Hope And Change]

1. K & R!

Good morning phrigndumass!


:hi:

[phrigndumass]

2. Good morning HnC!

:donut: Thanks! :hi:

[Hope And Change]

3. You are welcome my friend!

:hug:

[fight4my3sons]

4. Good morning!

Happy widget anniversary! :party:

[phrigndumass]

6. Cheers!

With coffee!

:donut: Good morning f4m3s! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

10. little math dude

is not happy with Kansas. and you thought I had questions! He needs a widget fix in the morning now. Do you have some kind of coloring book this can be made into? lol

[phrigndumass]

11. Ha! It's addictive!

I remember when I was five years old. I had a wooden puzzle of a map of the United States, and all the individual states were puzzle pieces. I loved putting it together. I wonder if they still make those.

:hi: Hi to the Lil Math Dude! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

12. yes, we have one :)

and little math dude is very possessive of it - will not let the twinkies near it :)

[Demeter]

24. Time for a Revision of "What's The Matter With Kansas!"

Miss Gulch (Wizard of Oz character) is my next door neighbor, and I'd dearly like to drop a house on HER!

[tekisui]

5. Great Anniversary numbers!

knr.

Good morning, you're up early.:donut: Good to see IN back.

[phrigndumass]

7. Indiana is waking up :)

:donut: Good morning, tek! :hi:

I was dreaming widgets :scared:

[jefferson_dem]

8. Mornin' phrigndumass!

Thanks! :kick:

[phrigndumass]

9. Good morning jd!

:donut: Thanks back atcha! :hi:

[berni_mccoy]

13. Keep Up The Good Work!

[phrigndumass]

14. Ditto to you!

:donut: Good morning, Berni! :hi:

[grantcart]

15. On the intrade numbers

I don't understand why anybody would want to buy over 70. The risk to reward ratio just doesn't seem worth it to me, so the fact that people continue to buy CO/NM/WI/NM/MI etc at these high numbers is an indicator just how confident those states are. think for example about Michigan. There is polling that shows a Romney pick will dramatically help McCain in Michigan, but people are buying expensive shares for very little reward anyway. And yet North Carolina remains in the basement with $ 29.50.

An even better sign is the buying in IA and MO.

[phrigndumass]

20. If you buy one share, you won't make much money

But if you buy 1,000 shares, a one-point jump could earn $1,000.00. It depends on how big your bankroll is. (My bankroll is a piggy bank and I broke it a loooong time ago, lol)

Imagine buying 1,000 shares of Obama-Indiana six weeks ago. Selling them today would earn over $20,000.00. You would have easily doubled your money.

[grantcart]

16. Love the new score card and it shows how the dailies (Ras/ Gallup) continue to embarass themselves

[phrigndumass]

23. They're good at doing that, lol

[grantcart]

17. On the popular vote update (in the chart) what are the cf numbers for McCain's pop %

[phrigndumass]

21. I'm trying to figure out what the hell you mean by cf numbers, lol

Are you referring to the graph:



or the new chart? I may very well be having a thick moment :D

[grantcart]

18. oh btw now that I actually understand your methodology

what percent are you using for CA for the popular vote?


Seems like with the new poll we should have seen an incrase, not a drop in the total popular vote.


Atleast you know somebody is checking all your hard work lol.

[phrigndumass]

22. It's the Moore Information poll numbers:

Obama 54%, McCain 30%, plus projections for Barr (2.0%) and Nader (1.2%). Add them all together and the Undecideds total 12.8%. Greater than 10% Undecided diminishes the strength of projection for California, which drops the EV projection total (especially since CA has 55 electoral votes).

I'm happy that people are checking my work! I've made a couple mistakes in the past and a few very alert DUers have taken the time to shown me where. It keeps the projections accurate!

[Kaleko]

25. Sorry, I'm unable to find fault

with your work, phrig. Words such as "Obama is leading by X %" are music to my ears. And the pretty pictures you draw with lines going up where we want them to - well, all that gives me a pleasantly uncritical buzz over here in Caleeforneah, where EVERYONE I know is voting for you-know-who.

Thanks for all you do as our math therapist!

[phrigndumass]

27. Such nice words, thanks Kaleko!

:blush: :blush: :blush: "math therapist" lol

I suppose all this data makes it so much easier to do what is necessary to elect Obama. At least this year, all our work and donations won't be for naught. The more we do to help his candidacy, the better we will feel about ourselves when he actually wins the election!

- Phrig :D

[Kaleko]

29. One of these days you'll have to publish some statistics

showing how many people have been prevented from going insane or losing their will to live as everyone is trying to make sense out of all the wildly different and often discouraging polls.

I'm only 56% kidding. Your charts are a psychological public service, phrig.

[phrigndumass]

30. Now I feel 56% like this fella:

The bashful buzzard

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RuN-tFvgRc0&NR=1

Shucks! lol :D

[grantcart]

19. afternoon kick

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

26. rockin', phrig. Map looks good. tell me 538.com is making too much out of the KS numbers.

[phrigndumass]

28. I read the 538.com post, and I'm confused as well

Link:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/07/yesterdays-polls-716.html

It's just one poll, and it's not in a state of any enormous amount of electoral significance, but the new Rasmussen poll that shows Barack Obama trailing by 23 points in Kansas -- he had been down by just 10 last month -- is a little ominous. Obama's numbers are bad across the board: he's getting a relatively low percentage of Democrats, trailing by 17 points among independent voters, and his approval ratings are negative. Obama had recently been polling well in other states like Iowa and the Dakotas, and so this may turn out to be some kind of outlier. But the real question is what's going to happen the next time states like Ohio and Indiana are polled, which they haven't been in several weeks and where there's a little bit more at stake. In the meantime, our model is starting to hedge its bets a little more in the Midwest.

Considering Nate Silver's track record, this is cause for concern but definitely not cause for alarm (at least yet). The Kansas poll was conducted by Rasmussen and it was a small sample (500 likely voters) ... but Nate Silver could be right; his model seems to be without bias. We should pay attention to polls from Ohio, Indiana and even Pennsylvania to see if there is any confirmation of this. It would suck to make inroads in new places yet lose ground in the industrial states.

Thanks dms! :hi:

[grantcart]

31. Its not a huge amount but it will have a nice impact on the map Nevada flips for Obama

We have been expecting it and it has to cause McCain headaches bigtime


Next:


we are running out of states but I would expect North Carolina to be next

although Arizona is my dark horse favorite.




http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election

[phrigndumass]

32. Rasmussen released a North Carolina poll today as well

McCain +3. Very close!

Also:

Arkansas: McCain +13 (Ras) Another red state getting redder

Washington: Obama +16 (SUSA) Another blue state getting bluer

[grantcart]

33. actually its a formerly very red state getting a little pinker 13 is still respectable in AK

Now that Clinton is going to be campaigning that should go down.

[phrigndumass]

34. Let's hope you're right, but ...

Bush beat Kerry by 10 points in Arkansas in 2004. Bush beat Gore by only 5 points in Arkansas in 2000. I wonder if the Clinton-Obama divide is still evident in the Walmart state. The pollster.com graph of Arkansas is reassuring, though.

As far as I know, lol

[grantcart]

35. Clinton announced today that he will start campaigning for Obama as soon as they tell him where 2 go

[phrigndumass]

36. Ozarks to Appalachia, hopefully

Arkansas, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, and I'd even toss in Florida and maybe Tennessee.

Did I leave any out? I think that would be a great help. :D

On edit: btw, wth is a cf number? lol, I'm clueless and I'm dying to know

[grantcart]

41. well if we are even talking about Arkansas a month from now we are in for a landslide

[Kaleko]

37. Evening kick

[grantcart]

38. again

[Blondiegrrl]

39. I don't usually comment in these threads, but I just wanted to pop in and say

thanks so much for posting these. I look look forward to these updates every day. :hi:

[phrigndumass]

40. yw Blondiegrrl :)

How nice! :hi: Thanks for reading!

- Phrig :)

[RNdaSilva]

42. Checking in...

Still looking good...will look even better day by day.