grantcart

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Thu Jul-17-08 11:20 AM
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Secretary of Defense Gates ---- Senator Obama's new best friend

Edited on Thu Jul-17-08 11:28 AM by grantcart

A Dramatic Change of Course Points to a Change of Power within the Bush Administration

Over the last few days three separate actions indicate that the balance of power within the Bush Administration has undergone a significant shift:

1) The Joint Chiefs of Staff announce that they expect to reduce troop levels beyond expectations

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hcWJu9bbzrJZ7uNHjvMn0BuTGqHQD91V3MU80

The Pentagon's top military officer said Wednesday that he expects to be able to recommend further troop reductions in Iraq this fall. Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that on his recent trip to Iraq, he found conditions had improved more than he expected.

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Commanders have talked carefully, but somewhat optimistically, about the prospects for cutting troop levels more later this fall.

In recent months, they have pointed to two significant improvements: Violence is down, and the Iraqi forces are rapidly growing in size and ability.

Officials have been hoping that if security continues to improve in Iraq, they may be able to send more units to Afghanistan, where they say violence is increasing because of the flow of militants from neighboring Pakistan.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Wednesday that officials are looking for ways to send additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan this year.

2) U.S. reverses course, will send envoy to talks with Iran

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/07/16/us.iran/?iref=mpstoryview

The Bush administration has decided to break with previous policy by sending one of its most senior diplomats to engage Iran's top nuclear official, the White House announced Wednesday.
Undersecretary of State William Burns will head to Switzerland for talks on Saturday.

Undersecretary of State William Burns will head to Switzerland for talks on Saturday.

The move could dramatically alter the three-decade stand-off between the U.S. and Iran. Some western nations and Israel suspect Iran is intent on developing nuclear weapons and want Tehran to suspend uranium enrichment. Iran says it wants to develop nuclear power to produce electricity.

Undersecretary of State William Burns will accompany a European Union delegation during a meeting with Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear official, in Switzerland on Saturday, White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said. The delegation meeting with the Iranians will be led by the European Union's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana.

3) US will establish a permanent diplomatic presence in Iran

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSL1611455720080717?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews

LONDON (Reuters) - The United States will announce in the next month that it plans to establish a diplomatic presence in Tehran for the first time in 30 years, a British newspaper said on Thursday.

In a front-page report, the Guardian said Washington would open a U.S. interests section in the Iranian capital, halfway towards opening an embassy.

The unsourced report by the newspaper's Washington correspondent said: "The Guardian has learned that an announcement will be made in the next month to establish a U.S. interests section in Tehran, a halfway house to setting up a full embassy.

"The move will see US diplomats stationed in the country.

A dramatic change in policy

Of these three moves the last is the most radical changing 30 years of separation, the United States will have full time diplomats in Iran.

This is a huge change in Administration policy where neocons have dominated the policy and bureaucracy.

"Never Confirmed UN Ambassador Bolton" is going ballistic calling yesterday's move "another reverse for the Bush administration . . .
the early coming of the Obama administration" http://youtube.com/watch?v=ESWRY3YOX8o -- please note the reaction to #2 above before the neo cons learned of step # 3 full diplomatic contact in Iran.

What accounts for this change? Is Bush learning from past mistakes and has he had a 'Damascus Road' epiphany that has shown him that diplomacy does in fact work?

No.

Gates has been the wildcard. Since replacing Rumsfield he has been the one and only independent mind in the Administration

I believe that in a few months Woodward will be writing a book detailing that there has been a showdown within the administration and Secretary of Defense Bob Gates has gained significant power and is having a major impact on policy.

What I think Secretary Gates has done.

1) Refused to endorse a military strike on Iran.

Rationale: I think that Gates has coordinated intelligence and opinions, including the JCS that any attack on Iran by either the US or Israel would result in Iranian 'volunteers' entering Iraq and that it is possible that the United States would be exposed to thousands of casualties.

2) He has cut the Joint Chiefs of Staff loose so that they are more depoliticized and can speak independently of the White House and even the Pentagon.

Rationale: When Rumsfield took over the SOD this time around he knew that if he was going to have exclusive control over the defense establishment he was going to neuter the JCS. He broke the law by refusing to allow the JCS have their own counsel so that they would get expert briefing on the legal foundation of their power. He broke the law by eliminating the JCS direct briefing of the administration.

Returning to Sanity

So, from my speculative point of view, Secretary Gates has boxed the White House in and in the absence of that Bush has had to hand the balance of international power to the State Department. It now appears (and it is way to late to cover her earlier incompetence and unspeakable earlier positions) that Secretary Rice is now actually acting like a true Secretary of State. No matter how you cut it permanent diplomatic presence in Iran is a major, the most major, change in policy in the Bush administration's history.

Why did Gates hand the Obama Campaign such favorable policy moves at this time?

Let's face it. While Bush personally would do anything to support McCain as a failed continuation of his Presidency, these three announcements completely undermine McCain's campaign and are a virtual policy endorsement of Obama.

The reason that Gates is doing this, I believe, has nothing to do with partisan politics. Gates is doing this, IMHO, because of two reasons:

1) He intends to follow the law and by giving the JCS latitude to have its own opinion and make it public, even when it counters Administration policy he is simply following the law.

2) He represents a significant part of the Republican Party that was horrified to see the neocons politicize basic State and Defense Department functions. One of the most damaging actions of the Bush administration was to throw away basic bi-partisan positions that have kept both the State and Defense Department and basic fundamental world view issues out of petty partisan campaigns since President Truman. Even under Nixon, where there existed dramatic differences on specific policy's like Vietnam, there continued a basic understanding of the role of diplomacy, our allies and the UN. Under Reagan these assumptions were tested somewhat but really never abandoned.

Secretary Gates has brought the Administration away from its attack at every opportunity and forced them to engage diplomatically.

This shows that the Bush administration has not only lost the support of the American people but has lost the ability to perpetuate the coup of the neo cons within the national security apparatus.

By simply doing the rational and legal thing Secretary Gates has shown that Senator Obama's plans for Iraq and Iran are founded in common sense and are not a dangerous departure from what America has been doing for decades - working with allies and engaging in diplomacy rather than initiating needless wars.