There will be an uptick in polls and I think you're already starting to see it.

[Drunken Irishman]

Obama now leads McCain in both Rasmussen polls (non-leaners and leaners), which means he had a good day yesterday and will probably have another good day today. Look for Obama to be up by 5 or so points tomorrow and that lead could climb as the week goes on.

This election will be broken up into five chapters, if you will. Each chapter favors Obama and luckily for him, they happen a good deal apart as to where he won't surge in the polls, only to lose steam later and dramatically fall back down as late October rolls around.

It started with Obama winning the nomination back in May. He saw a serious spike from that and the support stayed steady for a good amount of time, before it began dipping a bit to where we are now. That was Chapter 1.

Chapter 2 is what we're seeing right now. Obama's trip to Europe and the Middle East will make or break his campaign and I think, as we've seen so far, it's got a lot more going for it than maybe even some of the most optimistic would have thought. If things work out well enough for Obama, his lead could push double digits by the end of the week in Gallup and Rasmussen and most likely will close in on double digits in every other non-daily tracking poll.

Chapter 3 will be when both Obama and McCain select their VP candidates. I think this will probably be a wash, as McCain should get a boost for his selection and Obama will most likely counter that with his choice, reversing the McCain bump and getting a bump of his own. I still believe Obama should pick his choice after McCain, as to cut off any positive press McCain will receive with his choice. If Obama plays his cards right, this will probably sustain the lead in polls he gained from his overseas trip, as he held a pretty solid lead for a couple of months after Clinton backed out in May.

Chapter 4 will be the Republican and Democratic conventions. Obama's speech will be historic and the fact it will be given in front of 75,000 fans can't hurt. Expect Obama to get a pretty good bump out of this, which could be the end game for this election if his lead expands greatly over the rest of the summer with his trip out of the country and his VP selection. If there is only a modest bump from either of those events, Obama will probably climb to the high single digits and might flirt with double digits, but I wouldn't expect his lead to get any greater than 15-points. That is most likely the worst case scenario, with the best case scenario being a big bump out of the current events (we're talking bumping him up to 12 points over McCain by this time next week), another modest bump by the time he selects a VP candidate (which most likely will push his lead up to 12-15 again) and a big bump by the convention (which could push him past 15% and maybe even toward 20% if we're lucky). I don't expect either, but something to fall between that. When the Democratic convention ends, Obama should have about a 13-14 point lead. After the Republican convention, McCain will probably get it within 8 or so, but even that is still a solid lead for Obama.

Chapter 5, the final chapter, will be the debates. If all goes as planned, Obama could be up solidly up and the debate will offer a final blow for the McCain camp, or a way back into this. Kerry was down fairly big to Bush in 2004 entering the debates and that offered him a chance to cut into Bush's lead, which he did. Gore did the same thing, actually. McCain can make ground or blow his chances with 3 debates against Obama. If the race is closer (5 points), the debates will be the end game for either candidate and ultimately will decide the next president. I don't expect McCain to lead at any point in this election and I think when October rolls around, Obama will have a 6+ point lead on McCain, which should be enough give him the presidency. 6 points, in the popular vote, will most likely signal an electoral college blowout.

[elocs]

1. How does Obama counter McCain's VP choice with his own

when the Democratic convention is before the Republican convention? How do you conclude a presidential nominating convention without naming a vice presidential candidate?

[Drunken Irishman]

2. Because McCain and Obama aren't going to choose their VP's at the convention.

Both will choose them this month or early August.

[elocs]

5. Why should McCain pick before Obama? What is the advantage in that for him? n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

6. He might be forced to.

Especially with this trip. His numbers could drop dramatically and if he waits until Obama selects his choice, by the time he makes a decision, McCain could be down big in the polls and it won't matter.

[elocs]

11. No matter how you suss it out, one or the other will pick first. n/t

[salonghorn70]

3. Disagree With Chapter 3

Obama will choose his VP first.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. It's possible.

I think either way, chapter 3 is a boost for Obama, since he has the lead and I doubt McCain's choice will be groundbreaking...unless he picks Powell or Rice, which ain't going to happen.

[BeatleBoot]

7. Ah, Rasmussen in July!

Now there's somewhere to hang your hat!

:rofl:

[Rowdyboy]

26. A July Rasmussen is like a fine young beaujolaise....

Impertinent, manly yet with a twist of joi de vrie....

[scarletwoman]

8. McCain won't make his VP choice before Obama. The only thing McCain has going for him is to control

the timing of his Veep announcement so that it steps on some big news coverage about Obama -- like the day of the Obama's acceptance speech in Denver.

McCain can wait until the Republican convention to announce his VP if he wants to, and since it comes after the Dem convention there's no reason in the world for him to announce before Obama does.

And this overseas trip is still a bit of a risk for Obama. The media is just itching for him to trip up somehow, and if something happends they will be all over it like flies on shyte and magnify it mercilessly.

Even absent any misstep on Obama's part, there's already a pundit narrative being put out there (by Andrea Mitchell) that scenes of masses of adoring Europeans will turn off domestic voters who will nurse a resentful perception that "foreigners" are trying to interfere with our election.

And remember what the Repugs did in 2004? They immediately stepped all over Kerry's already measly "post-convention bump" with a big, splashy -- but thoroughly bogus -- "Terror Alert". We have to prepared for something similar to happen this time around.

Let's just keep assuming that we are going to have fight tooth and nail all the way to November and not let our guard down for a moment.

sw

[Drunken Irishman]

10. He might not have a choice.

As I said in an earlier post, if Obama begins surging in the polls starting now, McCain might be forced to pick a VP candidate to stem the tide. He can't let this get too out of control or it will demoralize his campaign, his supporters and it will hurt his chances. Waiting for the Republican convention could mean he picks his VP when he's down big in the polls. If that happens, he won't see a big enough bump to get back into this. He might be forced to choose his running mate to turn the coverage on him and not Obama.

[CreekDog]

36. McCain may choose very soon because he needs another big name campaigning for him

full time.

[Stevepol]

9. Hope 6 points is enough. If we had a democracy it would be plenty.

But we have faith based voting, provided to us by the voting machine companies. We vote, praying that our votes will have some influence over the vendors when they decide the winner.

[polichick]

18. Such a sad situation - 8 years later and we still can't verify our votes!

[sandyd921]

24. Add caging lists

and other repuke election-stealing chicanery to that. F'ing bastids hate democracy and will do everything necessary to ensure maintenance of the corporatocracy.

[Gman]

12. Dick Morris says that

Obama will achieve at least a 10 point lead after this trip, he'll maintain it going into the convention, he'll get an even bigger bump out of the convention and at that point he's pretty much impossible to beat.

[phillysuse]

13. Remember it is Who Counts the Votes that Counts

Turnout is key to making sure that there are too many votes for Obama to switch electronically.

But remember it is not who votes as much as who counts the votes.

[On the Road]

14. I Think Party Loyalties and the Lack of an Incumbent

are going to make the gap smaller than many are comfortable with, but it will still be plenty for Obama to win.


This trip is going to pay off for him big. Obama is so obviously in charge and comfortable with world leaders, and should be having a much better reception from most of them. This is in contrast to either McCain or Bush, and it will show. The images themselves of Obama as the prospective leader of the free world meeting with foreign leaders are very powerful. I will go al long way toward people seeing him as president.

The talking heads who are saying this trip is a big risk are idiots. Only if Obama were incompetent would it be an issue. He is under no pressure to (in fact cannot) achieve any diplomatic goals. All he has to do is control perception in the US.

[Rowdyboy]

15. McCain can easily wait until the day Obama is nominated to announce his vp....

As long as the race stays reasonably close, as it is today, McCain is under no pressure to go first. Wish it wasn't so but Obama will likely be forced to go first. I suggest as soon as he gets back from Europe.

[Drunken Irishman]

16. Possible, but if Obama expands his lead these next couple of weeks...

McCain will have to choose to somehow stem the tide.

If Obama gets to 10+ points by this time next week, you'll see McCain trot out his VP choice.

[Rowdyboy]

25. Well its likely we'll see isn't it.....because I really believe that by this time next week....

Obama will be at least 10 points ahead of McCain. I hope you're right and McCain makes his choice soon but I really doubt it. He has literally no other way to draw attention-he can't afford to announce his vp until the day Barack is nominated-at least then it helps him a little.

[Virginia Dare]

17. I've predicted Obama will come back to a 12 point lead..

He'll be up by 15 or more points going into the election.

[crankychatter]

19. Daydream headline: Obama surges ahead in Polls - Republicans stay home in unprecedented Despair NT

[Voice for Peace]

20. It is unfathomable to me that this could be a close race.

Who in their right mind would vote for McCain? Seriously.

[Franks Wild Years]

22. More people voted for Bush than any President in history in 2004.

That's a lot of fucking idiots, and there you have your answer as to where McCain's guaranteed minimum of 40m votes comes from.

[Voice for Peace]

23. aw you just ruined my night

[NanceGreggs]

27. Successive numbers of presidents ...

... receive "more votes" because as the population grows, there are more eligible voters.

I won't dispute that there are a lot of fucking idiots out there, but McCain is not "guaranteed" a 40 million minimum of them by any stretch.

It's a matter of If I knew THEN what I know NOW. And the vast majority of one-time Bush voters wouldn't vote for him NOW, if given the chance. And McCain = Bush - a perception that even the GOP can't seem to quash.

[Drunken Irishman]

28. This isn't 2004.

It's more like 1992 than 2004.

[NanceGreggs]

30. I've seen this meme on any number of Freeper-type sites ...

"More people voted for Bush than any other president in HISTORY!!!"

They never bother to mention that "history" also takes into account the fact that the number of eligible voters grows with each successive presidential race.

I've actually seen a few people touting the "fact" that more people voted for Bush than Lincoln - and, as we all know, the voting population of the US was exactly the same when either candidate was running.

:eyes:

[Drunken Irishman]

31. Right and Kerry still only managed to lose the popular vote by 2%.

Or something like that.

[Franks Wild Years]

34. I'm aware of that.

It's still a fact though, inflation or not. It's still a whole 12m more who were bereft of their senses than only four years previous. It's still a heck of a lot of idiots, because it's unfathomable to me that an intelligent person could give that man their vote - It was hard enough to believe in 2000, in 2004 it was just preposterous. 62,000 would have been an insane amount as far as I'm concerned, let alone 62,000,000.

After Bush received that number of votes, I really do believe that McCain has 40m wrapped up as his bottom level. I think - all things being conducted fairly - that Obama should win as close to a landslide as a Democratic candidate can win, but McCain will fool a lot of people thanks to his silly little helpers in the media.

[thewiseguy]

21. I would not worry about the polls. Obama will win.

There is no chance that McCain will be the president.

[mwb970]

37. Spooky! That's *exactly* what I said about bush in 2000! /nt

[Median Democrat]

29. McCain's Campaign Spending Risks Premature Evaporation

I think the closeness of recent polls is due to the fact that McCain was spending heavily in the month of June compared to Obama, who was saving money. McCain is blowing through a lot of money right now. Obama is now starting to match him, but it will be interesting to see whether the premature evaporation of McCain's campaign funds will pay any dividends.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25775587/

[depakid]

32. Your rosy secenario leaves out a major point

The Republican machine hasn't even started with the negative campaigning- which is what they do best.

[Major Hogwash]

33. I agree, there will be an uptick, but will it be enough to secure a veto-proof Congress?

I'm sick of the Republicans filibusting all the time.
The news media isn't even reporting about it, but the Republicans have already done over 75 filibusters in the last year and a half since they lost control of Congress.

Fortunately, they haven't always been successful, but the real drag on the chain here is their ability to filibuster and slow everything down.

We need to whip this country into shape and quick!
The recession that Bush refuses to acknowledge is already 6 months old and it isn't going to go away by just saying it doesn't exist.
The housing mortgage crunch is actually at a crisis level, even if the media says it isn't.
Last week Cramer said that he thinks that Congress is going to have to pass a bill to increase the funds to pay off those mortgage lenders loans to the tune of 1.2 TRILLION DOLLARS!

And Cramer said, "that's a conservative estimate."

I believe him and I don't even like him.

[JeanGrey]

35. The only poll that counts is Nov. 4th!

Remember, Dukakis was ahead by 18 points in polls and got crushed. We need to stop worrying about day to day polls and keep pushing the message out there about Obama and never stop.