Harris Poll: Obama Leads McCain by Nine Points Among Registered Voters

[sabra]

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/

Matures and Whites for McCain; Echo Boomers, African Americans and Hispanics for Obama

ROCHESTER, N.Y. � July 21, 2008 � With just six weeks to go until the Democrat and Republican Presidential conventions, the general election is almost officially here. Results from a new Harris Poll show that:

* In a four way race, Barack Obama leads John McCain among registered voters 44 percent to 35 percent, while Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate and Ralph Nader each receive 2 percent. Sixteen percent of registered voters are not sure who they will vote for yet;
* John McCain is holding onto just slightly more of his base as just over three-quarters of Republicans (77%) say they will vote for him versus just under three-quarters of Democrats (74%) who will vote for Barack Obama; and,
* Among Independents, Obama has a 12-point lead (38% to 26%), but one-quarter of Independents (25%) are not sure, 4 percent would vote for Bob Barr and 3 percent for Ralph Nader.

These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 2,690 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive� between July 3 and 11, 2008. Like all polls conducted well before an election, this should not be read as a prediction, but rather as a snap shot of the presidential "horse race". Additional results include:

* Half of Matures (those over 63) say they would vote for John McCain, while three in ten (29%) would vote for Senator Obama, indicating that some of McCain�s strongest support comes from this generation;
* Half (51%) of the youngest generation or Echo Boomers (those aged 18-31) would vote for Barack Obama while just one-quarter (24%) would vote for Senator McCain;
* Ninety percent of African Americans are voting for Senator Obama, as are six in ten Hispanics (60%). Whites, however, are leaning towards Senator McCain over Senator Obama (40% versus 34%);
* Over two in five men (42%) and women (43%) say they would vote for Senator Obama, while over one-third of men (36%) and three in ten women (30%) would vote for Senator McCain. This suggests that the gender gap doesn�t really exist this year; and,
* Half of single women (51%) would vote for Senator Obama while just one-quarter (25%) would vote for Senator McCain. Married women are more closely divided � 37 percent would vote for Obama and 36 percent would vote for McCain.

[underpants]

1. McHundred is never going to get closer

he should call for a vote right now

[MissMillie]

2. does anyone know what happens when we look at

"likely voters" as opposed to "registered voters"?

[featherman]

5. "Likely voter" is very subjective and formulas for it vary by pollster

For an interesting discussion of this see this article in fivethirtyeight.com:

Likely Voters More Republican?

In the ABC/Washington Post poll that showed Obama leading 50-42 among registered voters, the “likely voter” screen they used showed Obama only leading 49-46. When a pollster uses a “likely voter” screen they are applying their own special secret sauce formula to determine who is likeliest to vote.

The critical element that skews likely voters more Republican this time is that likely voters = engaged voters, engaged voters skew older, and older voters skew McCain in this race.

(more on this at the link below):

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/07/likely-voters-more-republican.html

[ErinBerin84]

3. "Matures and whites". I don't know why, but that cracked me up.

[democrattotheend]

4. It's an online poll

So I would not put too much stock in it. Online polling technology has improved but it's still not all there yet.