NC POLL: McCain 43 (-2), Obama 40 (-1),

[jefferson_dem]

N.C. Poll: Presidential Race Tightens
Civitas Staff | July 21, 2008

McCain’s lead over Obama down to 3 points
Raleigh, NC – The competition for North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes for President has tightened this month with Republican Senator John McCain holding only a three point lead over his Democratic rival, Senator Barack Obama, according to the latest poll released by the Civitas Institute.

Among all voters, McCain leads Obama 43-40, a slight tightening of the four point lead McCain held in Civitas’ June survey where McCain led Obama 45-41. Libertarian Party nominee Bob Barr held steady from last month at two percent support. Fifteen percent were undecided.

“This month we’ve had slight tightening along with an increase in the number of undecided voters over last month,” said Francis DeLuca, Executive Director of the Civitas Institute. Undecided voters increased from twelve percent in June to fifteen percent in July.

Among Democrats, Obama leads 63-21, while McCain leads among Republicans (74-11) and unaffiliated voters (40-39). However, a large racial divide continues to exist. Obama garners the support of 92 percent of African-American voters, but only receives 28 percent of white voters.

“The race remains close in North Carolina and we are seeing this month how fluid the situation can be. Neither candidate has been able to make a decisive move to take a substantial lead. It should make the next few months very entertaining,” concluded DeLuca.

Previous Civitas Poll results:
February – McCain 46, Obama 36
April – McCain 48, Obama 39
May – McCain 44, Obama 39
June – McCain 45, Obama 41, Barr 2

http://www.nccivitas.org/media/press-releases/n-c-poll-presidential-race-tightens

[Bullet1987]

1. NC is very close as are a lot of other states...

[Awsi Dooger]

2. Sounds about right

I've been estimating Obama trails by maybe 5 in North Carolina. Barr is a factor I don't know how to apply in specific states. Nader certainly cut into Gore's margin in Democratic states in 2000 so perhaps there's potential for Barr.

The problem in states like North Carolina is our ceiling is very low. Notice the percentages Obama manages in those monthly polls, high 30s and very low 40s. We'll bust that level once undecideds align, but winning a state like that requires either a national landslide or an artificial tightener. That could be Edwards at VP but I still don't think that's enough. Maybe a combo of Edwards at VP and Barr stealing several percent.

Overall, North Carolina is icing. Virginia will tilt our way before North Carolina, in all likelihood, and if we annex Virginia it would be bizarre to fall short of 270.