What state will be Obama's biggest upset?

[Quixote1818]

My gut is telling me he could pull off Georgia. There is a huge black population that has not been tapped before. Add in a number of new white voters as well and perhaps 5% of the veteran voters changing to our side plus Bob Barr taking 3 to 5% from McCain and we may have a huge upset.

Name your upset state.

[Youphemism]

1. The Republican State of Denial. /nt

[cliffordu]

34. lol. Nice!

[caledesi]

41. Good One! NT

[tridim]

2. TEXAS!

Book it.

[scarface2004]

36. i hope you got it!

make texas proud!

[tekisui]

48. You got it!

THe Nation had an article about turning Texas Blue. That would be a great upset.

And, Alaska, for the size.

[Lisa0825]

52. That would make me sooooooo happy.

Coattails!

[SwampG8r]

3. florida

he will flip florida
thats what im working towards

[billyoc]

4. AZ

[MrModerate]

5. He's not getting Texas; he's unlikely to get Florida . . .

So the biggest upset is the one everyone is tentatively predicting already: formerly all-red Virginia.

[Cant trust em]

7. Agree. NT

[GalleryGod]

45. Better Check FLA again, Pot-no!

He'll carry Sunshine Land by a comfortable 100K
Take It to the Bank.

[MrModerate]

54. Could be. I'm just not banking on it, for the following reasons:

1) The 'Licans still control the voting systems
2) Crist is considered less odious than some other 'Licans and -- even if he is distracted by being McCain's veep -- will be paying close attention to the election-stealing process
3) Florida 'Licans at the local organizer level are meaner than other places.

If it's an Obama blowout (40-states, 400 electoral votes), then Florida will be in his column. Otherwise it's going to be a tough slog.

I don't think he *needs* Florida in the way that Kerry or Gore did, however . . .

[On the Road]

6. The Former Dixie States

are more likely to have a discrepancy between polls and actuals due to unspoken racism.

I will go with Montana.

[Quixote1818]

9. I think he is leading in Montana right now. Probably a good bet. nt

[IndianaGreen]

8. Obama will carry Indiana!

Since polls close at 6 PM in Indiana, this longtime red state will turn blue in November, becoming the first state to go in Obama's column.

[provis99]

14. Indiana would be interesting to carry

It's always been a big red sore in a sea of blue up there in the upper Midwest. If Obama were to take Indiana, that would really be something.

[Quixote1818]

23. Those Chicago suburbs might be enough for him

He did do well there against Clinton and its right next to Illinois. That might be a sleeper.

[CitizenLeft]

10. Montana.

[usregimechange]

11. Missouri

[spag68]

12. IMHO

All the above mentioned, and a couple others are possible. It will only take one of them to explode many right-wing pea brains, and it will be so so so much fun. Here's hoping.

[scheming daemons]

13. Alaska

[Skittles]

15. any formerly solid red state would be gravy to me n/t

[givemebackmycountry]

16. ALL OF 'EM

He's going to run the table.

I told someone tonight that America is ready for a "Monty Python Moment".
What?
I said it.
A "Monty Python Moment".

"And NOW something completely different"

[adoraz]

17. Georgia? I would be incredibly shocked... I say Virginia

As much as I would love for Obama to win Georgia, I just can't see it happening.

I have a feeling Barr will not do as well in states like Georgia as he is right now.

[Recursion]

20. Big Dog carried Georgia in 1992

I think I give more credence to Barr's run than you do; My Sources (tm) say Ron Paul will be carrying some water for Barr in the fall.

[adoraz]

22. Big Dog isn't black though

I lived in Georgia for 8 years, in both the suburbs near Atlanta and a very small town. There were a lot of great people there, but I saw way too much to tell me that Obama won't win there.

I think all those people going for Barr now will end up going for McCain once they realize Barr has no shot.

[Quixote1818]

24. What % of Georgia's population do you think is prejudice?

Even if it's 35% chances are 99% of that 35% votes Republican anyway.

[adoraz]

26. you got a point, but that 35% might come out extremely strong

Currently McCain leads in Georgia, and until I see polls with Obama leading, I can't believe it will happen.

[Quixote1818]

29. I have no idea if he can pull it off but I was trying to pick a state that is possible

and would be a huge upset.

[adoraz]

32. Well if it does happen, your pick will probably win as biggest upset

If we win Georgia, we will win overall. :)

[adoraz]

31. actually thinking it over, the problem I have with this

is states such as Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, etc. Hillary ALWAYS won with whites by an overwhelming majority. These were Democrats voting, and I can't believe that all of them were supporting Hillary because of her policies. That couldn't have been a coincidence. It was always a gigantic gap in those states.

[Recursion]

25. But a third of Georgia is

I don't know when you were there, but ATL (and all of north/coastal Georgia, for that matter) has changed drastically in the past decade or so.

[adoraz]

27. I lived there in the early to late 90s

so I guess you're right... but I still won't believe it til I see it happen.

It would be pretty awesome though.

[Zynx]

18. North Dakota.

I didn't believe it until recently.

[27inCali]

19. Texas? North Dakota? Georgia? Indiana? Arizona?

You know, the biggest upset would be to take Arizona. It would not be impossible considering his strength in surrounding states.
What a message that would send!

[VADem11]

21. Arizona

I would love to see us take McSame's own state. He's already polling under 50% there.

[seriousstan]

28. I have hometeam syndrome......I must say Ohio.

I think it is in the water.

[Historic NY]

30. Olde Virginia.

[rucky]

43. VA would be huge.

and the most likely.

[SoCalDem]

33. As long as he gets 270, everything else is gravy

[az chela]

35. I think it will be florida

[vaberella]

37. I thought he pulled off Georgia in the Primaries, and I know Georgia is a gimme. W. VA is my bet...

:rofl:

:kick:

[Awsi Dooger]

38. I think Florida is most logical for a true upset

McCain is basically a 60/40 favorite right now, but the state's partisan index combined with Obama's national lead means the state should tilt slightly blue.

Some of these nominations are technically not upsets. Believe it or not, Obama is a 60/40 Intrade favorite right now in Virginia.

[grantcart]

39. You need to define what you mean by upset

1) in comparison with 2004

or

2) in comparison with say Jan 2008


If #1 then I have to say Indiana


If # 2 Georgia - could be won if there is a big vote registration and GOTV

[Major Hogwash]

40. Oklahoma

A lot of upset folks there and in Missouri.

Montana will go for Obama, but that's not really unexpected anyway.

[auburngrad82]

42. From what I'm seeing and hearing in North Carolina he could win the Old North State.

Just sayin'

[AlinPA]

44. Ohio.

[phrigndumass]

46. Obama will hit the Ohio-Pennsylvania-Florida trifecta

And winning Georgia would be a huge upset!

:hi:

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

47. A.R.I.Z.O.N.A.!!

Mark my words! The demographics are different. The AZ media HATES McSame. Always has! He has never had serious contention in that state and now he does! AZ governor is very popular and Napolitano will be a great help to the O-Man!

[mucifer]

49. It's very early

[NorthCarolina]

50. North Carolina

eom

[Alter Ego]

51. Virginia

[davidpdx]

53. My bet is on

Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, Iowa and Ohio. Right there is over 60 electoral votes.

I'd give a even odds on Georgia and Florida if Barr starts gaining popularity with conservatives. (that would add another 38)

[BklynChick]

55. North Carolina