The Myth of A Toss-Up Election

[VADem11]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-abramowitz-thomas-e-mann-and-larry-j-sabato/the-myth-of-a-toss-up-ele_b_113827.html

Interesting article by several political scientists including Virginia's Larry Sabato comparing McCain's chances to those of Adlai Stevenson.

By Alan Abramowitz, Thomas E. Mann and Larry J. Sabato

snip//

Too close to call." "Within the margin of error." "A statistical dead heat." If you've been following news coverage of the 2008 presidential election, you're probably familiar with these phrases. Media commentary on the presidential horserace, reflecting the results of a series of new national polls, has strained to make a case for a hotly contested election that is essentially up for grabs.

Signs of Barack Obama's weaknesses allegedly abound. The huge generic Democratic Party advantage is not reflected in the McCain-Obama pairings in national polls. Why, according to the constant refrain, hasn't Obama put this election away? A large number of Clinton supporters in the primaries refuse to commit to Obama. White working class and senior voters tilt decidedly to McCain. Racial resentment limits Obama's support among these two critical voting blocs. Enthusiasm among young voters and African-Americans, two groups strongly attracted to Obama, is waning. McCain is widely seen as better prepared to step up to the responsibilities of commander-in-chief. Blah, blah, blah.

While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain's prospects could improve over the next three and a half months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed - historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months - points to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November. Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry.

[annabanana]

1. Teeing up election theft...

It is past time to laser in on the PROCESS. Please visit the Election Reform forum:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=203

Volunteer to work the polls. Take your A game.

[babylonsister]

3. We must remain vigilant, but I think

even the rethugs won't get away with that this year as long as an overwhelming number of people vote. And I'm optimistic that will happen; we have a lot riding on it.

[SoCalDem]

15. The 50 state strategy makes it more difficult for them to steal it..

:)

[babylonsister]

2. Rec'd! And another snip:

In order to defeat Barack Obama, John McCain will have to convince a lot of disgruntled Republicans to turn out and vote for him. But mobilizing the Republican base, a strategy employed successfully by Karl Rove in 2002 and 2004, won't be enough for McCain to win in 2008. He'll also have to convince a majority of independents and a substantial number of Democrats to vote for him. That's a task that proved too difficult even for Rove in the 2006 midterm election and it may be even more difficult in 2008. That's because since 2006 the political environment has gone from bad to worse for Republicans.

It is no exaggeration to say that the political environment this year is one of the worst for a party in the White House in the past sixty years. You have to go all the way back to 1952 to find an election involving the combination of an unpopular president, an unpopular war, and an economy teetering on the brink of recession. 1952 was also the last time the party in power wasn't represented by either the incumbent president or the incumbent vice-president. But the fact that Democrat Harry Truman wasn't on the ballot didn't stop Republican Dwight Eisenhower from inflicting a crushing defeat on Truman's would-be successor, Adlai Stevenson.

Barack Obama is not a national hero like Dwight Eisenhower, and George Bush is certainly no Harry Truman. But if history is any guide, and absent a dramatic change in election fundamentals or an utter collapse of the Obama candidacy, John McCain is likely to suffer the same fate as Adlai Stevenson.

[jefferson_dem]

4. The media just might be starting to realize (and report) the truth.

Is McSame a "no shot", asks TIME mag.

Tuesday, Jul. 22, 2008
Never Underestimate McCain, But...
By Michael Grunwald

John McCain might seem like a long shot. He's the Republican nominee at a time when the two-term Republican President is wildly unpopular and Republicans are losing elections in perennially Republican districts and the party base isn't exactly drooling over him. He supported the president's unpopular efforts to transform Iraq and revamp Social Security; he was against the Bush tax cuts before he was for them. He's a 71-year-old Washington hand in a change election. And his 46-year-old opponent is a lot better at raising money, delivering speeches, drawing crowds and registering new voters.

Oh, let's just admit it: John McCain is a long shot. He's got a heroic personal story, and being white has never hurt a presidential candidate, but on paper 2008 just doesn't look like his year. And considering what's happening off paper, it might be time to ask the question the horse-race-loving media are never supposed to ask: Is McCain a no-shot?

Last week, the McCain campaign's case against Barack Obama went something like this: He's irresponsible when it comes to Iraq, naive when it comes to Iran, and a big-government liberal when it comes to the economy. But now Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki has more or less endorsed Obama's plan to withdraw from Iraq, forcing McCain to argue that Maliki didn't really mean it, and even the Bush administration has accepted a "time horizon" for withdrawal, if not a precise "timetable." The Bush administration has also engaged in some diplomatic outreach with Iran, just as Obama has recommended, a severe blow to McCain's efforts to portray Obama's willingness to talk as appeasement. And on the economy, a TIME/Rockefeller Foundation poll found that 82% of the country supports more federal infrastructure spending designed to create jobs. When big-government liberalism is all the rage, McCain's courage in opposing water projects or the farm bill becomes less of a selling point.

McCain has struggled to find his voice in this environment. His initial reaction to the foreclosure crisis boiled down to old-fashioned conservative self-reliance, which went over like a lead balloon, and was eventually replaced with a more aggressive plan for government assistance. He has changed or shaded his positions on offshore drilling, the estate tax, ethanol, immigration and a host of other issues. He can't seem to decide whether to run as a maverick and risk demoralizing a GOP base that already mistrusts him, or run as a conservative and risk alienating swing voters who already miss the John McCain of 2000. And his campaign — which already survived a near-death experience in the primary — is in seemingly perpetual turmoil.

<SNIP>

That doesn't mean that anything's probable. The media will try to preserve the illusion of a toss-up; you'll keep seeing "Obama Leads, But Voters Have Concerns" headlines. But when Democrats are winning blood-red congressional districts in Mississippi and Louisiana, when the Republican president is down to 28 percent, when the economy is tanking and world affairs keep breaking Obama's way, it shouldn't be heresy to recognize that McCain needs an improbable series of breaks. Analysts get paid to analyze, and cable news has airtime to fill, so pundits have an incentive to make politics seem complicated. In the end, though, it's usually pretty simple. Everyone seems to agree that 2008 is a change election. Which of these guys looks like change?

http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,1825337,00.html

[babylonsister]

5. Big kick, needs recs. nt

[VADem11]

6. Kick

:kick:

[berni_mccoy]

7. REC 5, Off To The Greatest!

Check out my posts on EV Strength: http://journals.democraticunderground.com/berni_mccoy/402

That, IMO, paints a clearer picture of this race. No. It's not even close.

[gratefultobelib]

8. I worry in spite of everything, so posts like this are wonderful!

[depakid]

9. "Why hasn't Obama put this election away?"

All things considered, this is a valid question, and one that perplexes folks abroad.

[Median Democrat]

10. Real Question - Why Hasn't McCain Done Better Despite Outspending Obama?

McCain is heavily outspending Obama because he has to exhaust his primary funds before the convention. Despite this over spending, McCain is still trailing Obama. Can you imagine what happens when Obama stops hording his cash?

Of course, the MSM will probably even out the contest then, by slanting against Obama.

[depakid]

11. "Can you imagine what happens when Obama stops hording his cash?"

Unfortunately, I've heard that sort of musing all too many times before....

[Median Democrat]

12. When? The big assumption is Big Media and What Democrats Can Do?

Big Media has a strong GOP bias. Obama's fundraising helps level the playing field, but it will never equal the operating budget of Fox News. The issue is what can Democrats do?

We could, of course, just give up and kiss any hope for a democracy good-bye. Or, we can each volunteer and make this election personal. The big mistake I see is many Democrats waiting for some candidate to walk on water and win the election for them. This will never happen. Bush is tremendously flawed, but he won due to media complacency, but also an active RW base.

If McCain wins, its our faults collectively, since this is a Democracy. The problem we have as liberals is that we are too tolerant, and we are apt to shrug our shoulders when RW's spout off non-sense. Well, we can't just rely on Obama to fight our battles for us. We each need to get out there and convince people to vote Democrat one person at a time, because it is not like Big Media will do this for us.

[depakid]

14. Nope. The campaign has NO responsibility to attack Republicans

It's all progressives faults for not doing more.

Rather than reprise this sorry apologia from 2004 (remind me again, how many millions were left over?), how about we put pressure on the Obama's advisers to actually USE THE MONEY to buy ads that showcase and define McCain & Co. in no uncertain terms?

Lord knows, there's been more than enough ammunition just in the past two weeks to derail the McCain campaign for good and relegate it to the fringe where it belongs.

But no. The Dems are largely silent- when the KNOW full well that the corporate media will NEVER give them an even shake, much less make the case for them.

[ieoeja]

13. Because the election doesn't happen until November?

Do you realize that not one single NFL division title has been decided yet this year? Unbelievable! Here we are more than halfway through the year without a single team putting away their division.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Considerable edge, but not the equivalent of '52

That was 20 consecutive years of one party in charge of the White House and a restless national mood. This is only 8 years, a dynamic that otherwise is historically close to 50/50. We're in great shape but if Republicans had held the White House for 12+ years it would be a virtual cinch.