Rasmussen: Obama ahead by one in Florida

[Zynx]

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election

*Snip*
Barack Obama has caught up to John McCain in Florida. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama with a statistically insignificant one-point advantage over his rival, 46% to 45%. When “leaners” are included, the Democrat leads 49% to 47%.
*/Snip*

I have a hard time believing Obama is ahead in Colorado and tied for the lead in Florida and dramatically behind in Ohio. Something is amiss in Rasmussen's polling. Colorado may fall to us before Ohio, but not by much. Florida is probably the last of the three to fall our way. Rasmussen has some explaining to do on that Ohio poll.

[mvd]

1. Leaves me scratching my head, too

I think the Ohio poll is obviously an outlier for this to be true.

[Zynx]

3. The Ohio number would only make sense if Obama has completely collapsed.

That doesn't seem to be the case.

[VolcanoJen]

4. Exactly.

Rasmussen = Outlier City!

[Robbins]

2. I agree

Obama will win Ohio before Florida.By Ras Obama has gone from 5 behind to 1 ahead.I don't buy the Ohio numbers.

[Stuart G]

5. Best news I have heard this month....

With a chance in Florida..we got a chance everywhere..

[thewiseguy]

6. Its really funny to see Obama ahead in their poll considering...

According to Rasmussen:

The majority of Florida voters (55%) think most reporters are trying to help Obama win the election.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Florida voters think the United States is winning the War on Terror.

Among voters in the state 57% are in favor of offshore drilling, while 32% do not think it should be allowed.

[book_worm]

8. Rasmaussen is trying to make an issue out of the reporter thing--he doesn't have to ask that

question.

[thewiseguy]

9. He is a RW pollster trying to create talking points for Faux

Faux has been running around with headlines that half of Americans believe the media is in it for Obama.

[my3boyz]

10. Yet Obama is supposedly ahead..does not make sense.

They think McCain is being treated unfairly in the media. They are in favor of offshore drilling. Yet Obama is ahead?

[book_worm]

7. I agree it is strange that he would be ahead in FL and CO but down by 10 in OH

I'd need to see another OH poll which backed that up.

[gcomeau]

11. ARG backs this up on Florida...

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

Has Obama within 2 as of today in their polling and the MoE is 4. Florida seems to be shifting.

I also have a really hard time believing Rasmussen's Ohio numbers. I want to see other polls there.

[SteveM]

12. Florida is much more in play than folks want to believe...

Remember, the economic downturn has hit Florida as hard as most rust belt states, all-at-once, and in a manner only destined to get worse (tourism depends on travel). Further, the age demographics have shown a rising tide of younger people moving to the state (generally, a good group for Obama). Older folks in Florida do like their social security, and anyone questioning the present system better had better show up with body armor. And the "Hispanic" vote in South and Central Florida is not nearly so monolithic as it once was. The advantage for McCain has been his military background (many bases in Florida and many retired military) and his relatively "moderate" positions on the environment. However, the push to drill off-shore in Florida may yet backfire.

[seasat]

13. I agree, the economy in Florida will hurt McCain

Because of Charlie and Jebbie's policies, the state has had to rely on tourists and real estate. With the gas price increases and real estate crash, our state economy is crashing faster than other states. More voters will move to Obama over the economy.

IMHO, the support for drilling is based on the misconception that it will produce an immediate impact and will have a significant impact on gas prices in the future. If the Obama campaign approaches it like they did the ill conceived gas tax holiday and respectfully educates voters, the support for drilling will plummet to previous lows.

I also think publicizing McCain's support for social security privatization will weaken his support among the elderly. We need ads targeting retirement communities in Florida touting Obama's tax reduction for retirees along with McCain's support for privatization and his statement calling social security a disgrace.

[Hawaii Hiker]

14. Scott Rasmussen is a Republican first of all

Second of all, that poll yesterday is very suspicious....Obama has been leading in Ohio practically all year, now, poof, down by 10 points....

Perhaps Rasmussen over-polled people in a Republican county, ie; Hamilton....

[Zynx]

15. I have no idea how he got the numbers he did in Ohio.

[Hamlette]

16. McCain has been in up Ras polls by as much as 16 points in FL in the last 6 months.

16 point lead gone?

Maybe I need to take the sage advice of many and not pay attention to polls this far out.

"Over the past six months, McCain has maintained leads ranging from seven to sixteen percentage points. Last month, McCain led 48% to 41% in the Sunshine State."