— see atop.
Uncounted and Switched Vote Fraud Scenarios
The Election Model has been updated to include two key fraud variable factors:
uncounted votes (net of votes padded) and
switched votes. Historical evidence shows that over 75% of uncounted ballots are found in heavily Democratic minority precincts. These critical factors are never included in election forecasting models which permeate the media and the internet. In fact, there is no mention of fraud from professional pollsters, political forecasters in academia, media pundits or liberal bloggers on their web sites. But it’s understandable. No one wants to bite the hand that feeds them. Why should any of these interested parties discuss fraud when Democratic politicians won’t? Unlike impeachment, the dirty little secret of election fraud has always been off the table in Congress.
In 2004 approximately 3% of all votes cast were uncounted. Bush stole 8.0% of Kerry’s votes (analysis below) to obtain his 3.0 million vote “mandate”. Past is Prologue. It would be foolish to assume a fraud-free election. That’s why the Election Model now includes a
fraud scenario analysis. Assuming that 3% of total votes cast are not counted, based on the latest polls McCain needs 6% of Obama’s votes switched to his column to win. This could be done by rigging strategically selected touch screens, optical scanners, punched cards, levers and central tabulators. Is it just a coincidence that Karl Rove is advising McCain?
The Election Model calculates projected vote shares and the electoral vote over a range of 36 uncounted and switched vote scenarios. The scenarios range from the True Vote (zero votes uncounted, zero switched) to Massive Fraud (5%, 10%). For simplicity, the model assumes that the scenarios apply equally in each state - admittedly an unrealistic assumption. But it provides a good approximation of the impact on the projected electoral vote and popular vote share.
These are a few reasons why Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is preferable to election forecasting methods used in the media and academia:
- Academic models forecast national vote shares only (months in advance of the election) using regression analysis of economic and political time-series.
- The Election Model projects the popular and electoral vote (and win probabilities) based on the latest state and national polls right up to the election.
- MC does not arbitrarily designate states as being “too close to call”; it automatically factors in the poll-based win probabilities.
- MC is a powerful tool for analyzing risk-based systems (i.e. electoral vote models) when deriving an analytical solution is impractical or impossible.
Popular and Electoral Vote Win ProbabilitiesThere are a number of election forecasting sites on the Internet which give McCain more than a 3% chance of winning the election. That would be true if Obama was leading by 3% in which case he could expect 300 EV. But it’s a mathematical impossibility based on the latest polls since he leads the two-party vote by 6-7%. A 6% margin (see table) will result in an electoral vote win 99.98% of the time. The sites provide potential cover for another stolen election, whether they realize it or not.
Some election projection sites give probabilities based on the election voting markets which currently give McCain a 30-40% chance of winning. Unless the market participants suspect that the election will once again be stolen, the inflated McCain “market” prices only reflect the “horserace” propaganda promoted by the media to make it appear that it will be a close election. But the state and national polls say otherwise.
Fifty state polls (
zogby.com and
electoral-vote.com) and 5 national polls (
realclearpolitics.com) confirm that Obama is leading by 54-46%. And his lead has been increasing over the past six weeks. The Law of Large Numbers (LLN) is in effect. The more polls, the more samples, the greater the confidence that the sample mean vote is close to the True Vote. The LLN confirms that with 54% of the two-party vote, Obama has a 100% probability of winning the Electoral Vote.
Sensitivity Analysis
Obama 2-party vote share impact on electoral and popular vote win probabilities:
Vote 48.7 49.8 50.9 52.0 53.0 54.1
EV 211 241 271 303 335 368
Win Prob 0.3 8.0 52.1 93.5 99.8 100.0
MoE Popular Vote Win Probability
2.0% 10.2 41.8 80.3 97.2 99.9 100.0
2.5% 15.5 43.4 75.2 93.7 99.1 99.9
3.0% 19.9 44.5 71.5 89.9 97.6 99.6
The 2008 Election Calculator
This model uses prior election votes cast, mortality and estimated voter turnout to calculate the True Vote.
It was originally developed to determine the 2004 True vote after the fact.
It does not calculate the corresponding Electoral vote.
But we can estimate the Electoral vote and win probability from the popular vote.
National Exit Poll vote shares of returning voters were key inputs.
As of today, the 2008 Election Calculator confirms the Election Model:
Obama has 54.1% and will win the True Vote by 71 – 59m.
Input consists of 2004 total votes cast (recorded plus uncounted), mortality and 2004 voter turnout in 2008.
The vote shares are similar to the 2004 National Exit Poll shares of returning and new voters.2008 True Vote Election Calculator Forecast
Estimated vote share (see National Exit Poll)
2004 Turnout Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - 17.2 13.1% 59% 40% 1%
Kerry 95% 60.5 46.2% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 95% 51.6 39.4% 11% 88% 1%
Other 95% 1.6 1.2% 70% 11% 19%
Total 113.7 130.9 100.0% 54.1% 44.7% 1.2%
130.9 70.8 58.5 1.6
In each election trial, the winner is determined by a
random process based on
state win probabilities which are in turn determined by the
latest poll.
- For example, assume that Obama is projected to win Florida’s 27 EV with 51% of the popular vote (based on the latest polls).
Many electoral vote calculators would simply add the 27 EV to the Obama column to determine his projected electoral vote total or just say it’s the too-close to call.
But that is an over-simplification.
Based on his projected share, Obama has a 69% probability of winning Florida; McCain has a 31% chance.
Obama’s 69% FL win probability is compared to a random number (RND) between zero and one. If the RND is less or equal to 0.69, Obama wins Florida’s 27 EV; otherwise McCain wins.
In each election trial, the RND/ win probability comparison is applied to each state.
The winner of the election trial is the candidate who has at least 270 EV.
The
Electoral Vote win probability is simply the number of winning election trials divided by 5000. Since Obama won all 5000 election trials, his win probability is 100%.
The
Popular Vote win probability (for a state and the national aggregate) is calculated using the Excel normal distribution function.
- Obama’s popular vote win probability closely matches his Monte Carlo EV win probability.
- Obama’s projected two-party vote share and the polling MoE/1.96 (Stdev) are the only required inputs to the function.
Obama’s projected base case (60% UVA) vote share is V=54.12%. Assuming a 2.0% polling MoE, his popular vote win probability is 100%.
100.0% = NORMDIST (54.12%, 50%, 2.0%/1.96, true)
Assuming a 3.0% MoE, the probability is 99.64%
Obama’s win probability in each state is also calculated by the normal distribution.
- The probabilities are based on 4% margin of error and the projected state vote share.
For example, assume that Obama is tied with McCain in the latest Florida polls at 45%.
With 60% of the undecided vote, he is projected to win the 2-party vote by 51-49%.
His probability of winning is 69%: =NORMDIST (.51, .50, .04/1.96, TRUE)
The National Model calculates the moving average projection based on 5 national polls. The base case 60% UVA scenario is assumed. The model provides a further confirmation of the State Model probabilities. The normal distribution function calculates win probabilities using the average MoE of the latest 5 polls. For example, the latest 5-polls have an average 2.49% MoE. Based on the 53.72% moving average projection, there is a 99.92% probability that Obama will win the popular vote: 99.82% = NORMDIST (53.72%, 50%, 2.49% /1.96, true)
2004 Election Model ReviewOn Election Day 2004, Bush had a
48% approval rating.
He won the official vote by
62 – 59m (122.3m recorded).
But according to the 2004 Census,
125.7m votes were cast.
Therefore, approximately 3.4m votes (2.74%) were uncounted.
The majority (70–80%) of uncounted ballots are in Democratic minority precincts.
Including uncounted votes, the adjusted count becomes 62.9–61.5m.
The
model produced a startling confirmation of the state and national models.
- In the base case scenario, Kerry was assumed to win 75% of the undecided vote.
- The Monte Carlo simulation determined that he would win 337 electoral votes.
- Both models projected Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.
The final 5 national poll average projection was 51.8%.
The final 18 national poll average projection was 51.6%.
The Election Model projections were based on state and national Pre-election polls.
- Kerry’s projected vote share was within 2.0% of his exit poll share in 23 states.
- The 12:22am Preliminary National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won by 51 – 48%.
Exit Pollsters
Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan. 2005.
- E-M discussed polling methodology and provided summary statistics by state, region and voting method.
- Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the average difference between unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote count margins.
It is more appropriate to call it Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD).
Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit poll by 52.0 – 47.0% (average of three measures). Unadjusted Exit Poll Recorded Vote Count
EV Kerry Bush Margin KEV Kerry Bush Margin KEV WPE/WPD
WtdAv TOTAL 51.95 47.05 4.91 337 48.27 50.73 (2.46) 251 7.37 %
- exceeded 6% in 25 states for Bush and none for Kerry (equivalent to exceeding a 3% MoE)
- exceeded 4% in 34 states for Bush and just 2 for Kerry.
- was less than 2% in 8 heavily Republican states (AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, MT, OK and TN).
- was less than 2% in just 1 Democratic state (OR), the only state which votes 100% by paper ballot.
The
1:25pm FINAL National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry lost by
48 –
51%. applied to returning and new voters.
, 53.2 - 45.4%.
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
