Zogby: Obama Ahead in Electoral Votes; Four States Change Color

[babylonsister]

http://www.pensitoreview.com/2008/07/24/zogby-obama-ahead-in-electoral-votes-four-states-change-color/

Zogby: Obama Ahead in Electoral Votes; Four States Change Color
Buck | Jul. 24, 2008



Pollster John Zogby’s new Electoral College analysis gives Barack Obama 273 EC votes to John McCain’s 146. Zogby says 119 votes are too close to call at this point in the election cycle.

Here are the latest changes and Zogby’s analysis on the Zogby Electoral College map:

Arkansas changes from purple to red: “It may look like a toss-up, but the conservative base is probably too solid for Obama to crack.”

Arizona changes from purple to red: “The state may be changing, but it is still home turf for McCain. Look for conservatives to come back to McCain.”

Florida changes from red to purple: “Seniors and whites provide McCain a cushion over Obama. However, no one should count votes here too soon.”

South Dakota changes from red to purple: “A tough call here, so we’ll shade it purple for now.”

[elocs]

1. Yep, it's a 50 state race and not a national election. 50 state elections.

That's what it's all about.

[ccharles000]

2. Why the hell is SC purple.

I would love for it to turn blue but it is not going to happen.

[Muttocracy]

9. how much of increased voter turnout could there be?

(I'm honestly asking, don't know) Is there a large group of African-Americans who might turn out who didn't recently? :shrug:

[GreenInNC]

25. Huge African American population

SC has a huge AA population that has never been truly tapped into by the Democrats along with the northern retirees who have moved to the coast in record numbers.

[AllentownJake]

18. All that matters

is that McCain has to spend time in SC. If McCain is in SC he isn't on offense he's on defense.

[Robbins]

3. Map

I was skeptical Obama could win Arkansas and Arizona however Obama could make It close In Both.
Florida Is a battleground.If Crist Is choosen as Mccain's running mate they are concerned about
the support of Obama among Blacks,Hispanics,and Young people.Social security could help Obama
cut Into the senior Women vote for Mccain.South Dakota becoming a battleground shows the touble Mccain Is In.

[tblue37]

16. Forcing the GOP to spend money to win

races they once could simply count on is also a good thing.

[Inuca]

4. The numbers are nice, but

looking at the map is still depressing :-(

[babylonsister]

6. Just imagine all those purples turning blue-could happen! nt

[publicatlarge]

7. Seems factoring in a VP choice

..is becoming more and more important with these trends.

[MercutioATC]

8. Funny how it's still slave states (red) vs free states (blue).

The Carolinas going purple is encouraging, though.

[Inuca]

14. You and your sig bug :-)

You made me leave yet another fingerprint on my screen!

[quiet.american]

19. Good observation. nt

[cbc5g]

5. Besides SC and CO it looks about right ...CO is tossup, SC is red

[intheflow]

17. Living in Colorado

I think it's right on. I've seen only two McSame lawn signs, but there are Obama lawn signs, t-shirts, and bumper stickers everywhere.

[TexasObserver]

10. If Obama wins Arizona or Arkansas, it means an Obama landslide.

If he wins South Dakota, it means a big win.

If he wins Florida, it means a big win.

Good news overall.

[Radical Activist]

11. That's a good looking map.

All the areas we won in '04 are still blue. But many of the '04 red states are purple. We're on the offensive in their territory.

[AtomicKitten]

12. ass-kicking in progress

[davidpdx]

13. Thanks for posting the good news

I hadn't heard that yet.

[babylonsister]

15. You're very welcome! I love to see it myself. nt

[Carrieyazel]

20. I wouldn't be too sure about Colorado, Michigan or NH at this point.

New Mexico and Pennsylvania are not slam dunks yet either. This is a very optimistic analysis at this point.

[Hawaii Hiker]

24. I'd say PA is damn close to a slam dunk - Since 2004: 268,000 NEW Democratic

voters in the state alone, PLUS another 200,000 Republicans losses..Kerry won PA in 2004 by 144,000 votes.....So I'm pretty certain PA is as blue as CA & NY...

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Jul23.html

[27inCali]

21. the Old Wild West

as it was considered in the 1800's, you know, not just the Coastal states, but the Big Sky, Border and Rocky Mt. states, a lot of states that Repugs like to call the "heart-land" are having a little Libertarian revolt against Washington's GOP.

Is it just me or did a lot of us progressives start to develop a libertarian streak in reaction to Bush?. Aren't a lot of our arguments against his overstepping executive authority taking the tone of Libertarian arguments? And is it helping us build bridges with Libertarians in the Big Sky and Rocky Mt. states.

[watercolors]

22. Not all seniors in Fl for McCain

I've talked to many who do not want him! We are senior citzens,{hate that title } a vast majority of them in our health club want Obama, so Fl just might surprise you! I'll say alot of them are alot healthier than McCain and smarter!

[AZBlue]

23. Zogby's comments on Arizona contradict themselves.

I think they are wrong here.

Arizona changes from purple to red: “The state may be changing, but it is still home turf for McCain. Look for conservatives to come back to McCain.”