Will the GOP's convention starting only 3 days after the Democratic Convention hurt or help Obama?

[Drunken Irishman]

Remember, there was a month between the conventions in 2004, which provided Kerry a bump, but also gave him ample time to lose that bump. By August 30th of 2004, most people had already forgotten the Democratic Convention, yet this time around, both conventions will be over within 7 days, giving Obama less chance of a bump, but also having his speech hang over the Republican Convention instead of allowing it to dominate for a week or so, only to fade and then be matched by the Republican Convention.

So does it help or hurt Obama?

[MercutioATC]

1. Obama needs to pack a lot into those three days...

...and work out a major media interest on day 5 (give them that "day 4" to throw the media off).

[samdogmom]

2. Who really knows?

However, based upon the past week--won't it be "special" if the media chooses to cover Obama and ignores the Republican Convention?

Can you imagine the McCain hissy fits?

[Drunken Irishman]

4. You're right, we won't know.

I think in the end it will be a wash, which can be spun into helping Obama, since he'll most likely enter the convention period with a modest lead.

I also hear McCain's speech will be on the opening day of the NFL...that can't go well. :D

[Muttocracy]

3. it may help by increasing the contrast. the more direct the comparison

the worse MacCheese looks.

[cbc5g]

5. I think it helps Obama...his grand slam will be fresh in peoples minds as they watch the repukes

and their pitiful convention

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Kinda like when McCain decided to give a speech the day Obama won the nomination?

[Cha]

7. Somebody wrote the first night of the

repub convention is also the first game of the nfl.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. Actually, McCain's speech will take place on opening night.

And NBC will be broadcasting the game.

[TexasObserver]

8. It's gonna make the GOP convention look lame.

[JI7]

9. Obama did not take public funds so it doesn't really matter

the conventions don't matter too much in itself. what hurt Kerry was that he took public funds(so did BUsh). when you do that you are restricted in your spending once you accept the nomination. this is why Republicans waited for a long time after the Dem convention to hold theirs(and they also wanted it close to 9/11).

[anonymous171]

11. I bet the GOP convention will be the most xenophobic and racist convention yet.

So it will help Obama.

[Cha]

12. I also read that some republicans wouldn't

be attending the convention because they're up for re-election..but, they'll always have ol faithful, joe lieman.

"Republicans in Congress are in full rout. There is, after all, an election coming up. And they know which way the wind is blowing. Even George Bush has been backing down on veto threats this week.

It seems the Republican leadership in Congress is giving GOP members a green light to "vote their conscience" on bills from now until the election. For those of you not fluent in wonkspeak, allow me to translate: this means more and more of them will be voting with the Democrats on more and more bills, in a last-ditch effort to get re-elected.

But it gets even better! As many as nine out of the twelve vulnerable Republican senators will not even attend their own national convention. Seriously, the Republican brand is so toxic that even being seen with their party could kill their chances of keeping their jobs. This is an absolutely mind-boggling development."

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http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x372974

[TlalocW]

13. It might produce convention fatigue with less people bothering to tune into the GOP one

Also right now and for the foreseeable future, Obama is in the zone, and McCain is not partly because Obama is pretty savvy about the changing political landscape, using technology to his advantage and rallying big crowds here and overseas. If his team has creative control over the convention, it's going to be a blow-out compared to anything McCain and the fuddy-duddies in the GOP can scrape together.

TlalocW

[spag68]

14. As a long time political observer

I believe that the conventions have become less and less useful for all concerned. The most exciting thing at a convention in many years was Obama's speech last time. I know it won't be easy, no elections ever are, but IMHO there is nothing that the rethugs can do except go along for the ride. If Obama has no strange moments between now and the election, they will lose big. The only thing their convention can do is make it worse. I still believe that the rethugs will try every dirty trick they can to influence events, but I think everyone has had enough of their bullshit. My son-in-law comes from an old line republican family told me today, he and his family are so disgusted with their party that they are either going to vote Obama or stay home. This is in Fla. where it seems the tide is turning.

[Drunken Irishman]

15. I actually agree with you.

Neither Kerry or Bush saw a large bump post-convention, whereas in years past, especially before the age of 24/7 cable news, a candidate could expect 10+ points out of his convention and I think Kerry only received a 5-point bump and Bush 2 or 3.

The thing that will be important for Obama is the fact his speech will be so historic. That there could be enough for a big swing.

[truthisfreedom]

16. Check the news. LOTS of 'thug congressslime won't be showing up for fear of association.

The rest will be spending most of their tiny worthless budgets on airline tickets just to be there.

[KharmaTrain]

17. The GOOPFest Will Be A Disaster

The only thing that can hurt Senator Obama from here on out is Senator Obama...and our lack of pushing to help him and other Democrats.

The GOOP's convention is gonna be a clusterfuck. First...you've got junior on Monday night...the first night will feature Mr. 27% feted by his corrupt party for "mission accomplished". We're sure to be reminded of all the great things that have happened over the past 7 1/2 years. So the first impression people will have is a tie to the worst pResident ever that Gramps and his surrogate will have to try to downplay.

Next there are the Paulbots...15,000 of them meeting nearby and ready to let the rest of the party know how they feel about Iraq, defecit spending and create a major distraction.

Then on Thursday...the day of Gramps coronation...he'll be competiting against the first NFL regular season game of the year. Either he will only be on two networks with his acceptance or have to wait until after the game...way past his bedtime...and many others as well.

So let's see...the Democrats should have a very solid convention...speaking to the important issues and nominating the most kinetic candidate since JFK....Obama will accept the nomination in front of 75,000 plus supporters and I expect him to crank out one of his finest speeches. The next week the GOOP slithers quickly past the men's room at the Minneapolis airport and tries to put on a bullshit show which leads to them nominating the worst candidate since Dole and a party divided between fundies, "social conservatives", Paulbots, boooshies and lucky if their inept candidate even gets his acceptance speech on all the networks. So you tell me whose gonna have the better week.

[applegrove]

18. Keep in mind the GOP will have to talk about Iraq and the economy.

Both things they have failed at. Dems can talk about hope for the future.

[Vinca]

19. It definitely should help Obama. The Democratic Convention

is going to be exciting! What do the Republicans have to look forward to? A tour of the Larry Craig Memorial Bathroom and a separate Ron Paul convention down the street.

[jazzjunkysue]

20. Let's hope this doesn't happen at the RNC, or Obama's DOOMED!