Despite primary, Pennsylvania is Obama's to lose

[RamboLiberal]

Though modest compared to the hundreds of thousands who greeted him in Berlin last week, the crowd of 35,000 who gathered on an April night on Philadelphia's Independence Mall to listen to Sen. Barack Obama was one of the largest crowds in the state's political history.

Despite that enthusiasm, the scores of thousands of new Pennsylvania voters registered by his campaign and his huge spending advantage, Mr. Obama was clobbered in April by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Months later, the Obama campaign believes that spring setback sowed seeds for a November harvest. Indeed, long-term demographic trends and more recent polls and party registration shifts suggest that in November the state is Mr. Obama's to lose.

A Clinton partisan then, but an Obama ally now, Gov. Ed Rendell suggests that the Obama campaign's grass roots efforts may have paid off in ways that were not immediately recognized in the wake of Mr. Obama's nine-point primary loss.

"They do the registration and field stuff very, very well," he said. "Had they not done the registration and the field as well as they did, I think we would have beaten them by 17, 18, 19 points."

According to the Department of State, 218,923 new voters registered in Pennsylvania before the primary -- 152,775 Democratic and 40,195 Republican. Another 164,026 voters switched their affiliation to the Democrats, compared to just 14,887 who changed to Republican.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08209/899848-176.stm

[Cant trust em]

1. "had they not done the registration and field as well as they did"

But that's what Obama does best. He hasn't run a passive campaign. The campaign has gone out and aggressively recruited supporters.

[MrModerate]

2. Despite the MSM's attempts to make it sound as if . . .

millions of HRC primary voters are so opposed to Obama that they'd vote for McCain in the general, I'm not seeing any evidence of that now. I think the media, with its mayfly-like attention span, has dropped that meme.

Like any politician, Obama will make decisions or choices that even his most ardent supporters decry. Doesn't mean progressives will embrace McCain who is disastrous on more levels than I can count.

OF COURSE Pennsylvania is Obama's to lose, just as it would have been HRC's to lose had she been the nominee. For McCain, it's a place where he's going to have to spend a shit-pot of money and a whole lot of time, and quite likely end up loosing.

I like Pennsylvania that way.

[MrModerate]

3. A "modest" crowd of 35,000.

McCain can only watch in envy.

[polichick]

4. He wasn't "clobbered" in April - her 25+ pt lead shrunk to 9 pts...

PA will be dark blue in November!

[TexasObserver]

5. According to Real Clear Politics' poll averages, Obama is up 8 points in PA.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

Gore and Kerry both won Pennsylvania by much lesser margins. In fact, combined they won by less than Obama's current 8 point lead.

The reality is that Obama is kicking ass in half the states, ahead in another quarter of the states, and losing badly in the remaining states:

Georgia
Texas
Mississippi
Kansas
Louisiana
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Arizona
West Virginia

In other words, in all but the most racist states.

McCain has slight leads in Missouri and North Carolina, but I believe both are within Obama's reach.

Florida is a tie.