Indiana DUers, what are the logistics if Obama selects Bayh as

[saltpoint]

the veep nom, the ticket defeats the GOP in November, AND Jill Long Thompson defeats Mitch Daniels?

Given that set of outcomes, does Bayh serve technically until the January Inaugural and then newly-inaugurated Governor Jill Long Thompson chooses a Democrat to replace him, or is a special election held instead, or does Daniels get to make the appointment before he leaves office?

[book_worm]

1. Do the polls indicate that Thompson has a shot at winning?

[saltpoint]

3. One contact I have spoken with very recently believes that

Jill Long Thompson does have a shot.

It was a photo-finish in the Democratic primary, but Daniels remains pretty unpopular.

The "Major Moves" campaign has rankled a lot of folks. On the plus side, Daniels has brought more jobs to the state -- including the Honda plant n Greensburg.

So Daniels is perceived as slightly ahead but vulnerable, especially if Obama does well. My contact says that Obama aggressively present in the state.

[LostInAnomie]

2. I'm pretty sure he serves as senator until Jan.

Because until Jan. he is technically still just a senator.

[saltpoint]

4. Ja, but I'm wondering if he's Obama's pick and they defeat McCaine

-- and Jill Long Thompson beats Daniels -- if Daniels chooses the replacement, or if a special election is held, or if Thompson makes the choice after she's inaugurated.

[davidpdx]

5. From 538.com

If you look down in the comments section, several people have posted the relevant laws. It seems that Bayh would need to wait until Jan 13th to resign in order to let Long-Thompson appoint a replacement (of course this totally assumes she beats Daniels).

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Shadow Senate Race?
Just to tie together couple of things from yesterday: suppose that Barack Obama picks Evan Bayh as his running mate. Suppose this ticket wins. Do the Democrats lose a Senate seat?

Actually, it's not so clear. The Governor would get to make a two-year appointment if Bayh had to resign his seat, with a Special Election to be held in 2010. The present governor of Indiana is Mitch Daniels, a Republican. Unlike some states -- Arizona, for instance -- Indiana does not appear to have any requirement wherein a gubernatorial appointee must pick a candidate from the departing Senator's party.

But would Daniels still be Governor at the time Bayh resigned his seat? He's in a quasi-competitive race with Jill Long-Thompson. I'm not entirely sure how Indiana elections law works -- this is one of those instances where Google fails you --but I'd assume as a default that the incoming Governor would get to make the appointment (there's only a 49.99 percent chance that I'm wrong about this). If this whole parlay plays out, you could have a two-birds-with-one-stone, de facto Senate race in Indiana based on the gubernatorial result.

In any event, we have a very boring set of gubernatorial races this year, but Indiana is one that the Democrats ought to consider pouring some money into (and Republicans likewise to defend their incumbent). It's a state that has long been redder than it "should" be based on its demographics, and where there might be some long-run benefits to building out the party's infrastructure.

-- Nate at 4:50 PM

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/07/shadow-senate-race.html

[saltpoint]

6. Hi, davidpdx, and thank you for that link & information.

I'm still not sure Obama wants Bayh on the ticket, and agree with that passage that says the Indiana gubernatorial race is "quasi-competitive."

It will take a strong Obama showing in key counties -- Lake, Monroe, Tippecanoe, Marion -- plus a low GOP turn-out for Daniels, IMO, to turn Indiana blue.

But it's within reach and well worth fighting for.

I was just musing on how many Senate seats we'd lose or gain per veep shortlist pick, etc.

Thank you.

[AllentownJake]

7. I lived in Indiana for 3 years

So I am by no means an expert on the Hoosier political scene however, Hoosiers as a whole seem very proud of the fact they are Hoosiers. The Bayh name there from him and his father is a priceless commodity and its the only place in the country with a museum to a VP (Dan Quayle). He wins elections there by wide margins.

That being said Bayh didn't do much for Hillary when he campaigned accross the state for her in the Primary. Ed Rendell was much more effective for her in PA. Also I know there are good progressives in Indiana and a super majority of Hoosiers are tolerant up right citizins it is one of the most racist and evangelical states I have ever lived in. When I say this, the racist there are unashamed of expressing their ignorance like they were in other states I lived in. I saw more confederate flags in Indiana than I ever did in North Carolina and W was super popular among the Evangelical crowd even into 2006 when I left.

[saltpoint]

8. Hi, Jake. Agree with you -- there are wonderful pockets of progressives

in Bloomington and other places in Indiana, but just a few miles outside of town, the Confederate flag bumperstickers show up and the blue voting totals go down.

Agree also that there is a strong fundamentalist tilt to a lot of the GOP voting.

IMO you've got it exactly right on the Bayh name in Indiana. I am a Birch Bayh fan from way back. Hell, I even loved Vance Hartke. And I'm STILL appalled that Indiana voters chose the loathsome Dan Coats over Joe Hogsett for that Senate seat. I just can't wrap my head around that at all.

I have Joe Hogsett in mind as Indiana's next U.S. Senator if Bayh is chosen by Obama as the veep nom and the ticket wins, and if Jill Long Thompson defeats Daniels.

That's a lot of 'if's' piled up in a row, but it could happen.

Also, although it isn't getting much press, I'd sure like to see Steve Buyer go down to a crushing defeat in his district (I think it includes Purdue). Buyer is among my least favorite Republicans, and that's saying something.

[AllentownJake]

9. My Man Mitch

How's that assclown polling. He wasn't popular when I left Fort Wayne for his Daylight savings time decision and the selling of the toll roads to the Germans. I'm from PA so I was called an arrogant East Coaster quite a few times and a dirty philadelphian (even though I only went to school there I'm from Allentown 50 miles away :rof:) but for the most part people are nice.

I had a muslim friend threatened in the parking lot of a bar in 2003 by a bunch of country boys. Luckily when equal numbers show up the cowboys are surprisingly giant cowards.

Fort Wayne had pockets of progressives, it was a wierd town. It had more churches than I've ever seen in a town of that size and at the same time more strip clubs than I've ever seen for a town of that size as well.

I enjoyed living there and met some really great people and traveled the whole state but some places and people made me scratch my head.

[saltpoint]

10. Yep. I've heard similar tales from places like Muncie (where the Ball State

community is really refereshing) and from West Lafayette (where I guess Buyer is entrenched, but bad as he is he isn't as bad as Dan Burton and Pence, etc.)

It's hard to believe now, but Robert F. Kennedy won the Indiana primary in 1968.

[AllentownJake]

11. Different times

With corn selling as much as it is now I'm assuming the farmers are very happy I feel bad for all the Ethanol plants that sprung up but what can you do.

The unions were much more powerful in 1968. How many American factories are still in Indiana now? GE closed their plant while I was there and the plant in Fort Wayne made SUVs for GM so I'm assuming its taken a hit. I'm hoping those people wake up and don't vote for the guy their pastor tells them this year.

[saltpoint]

12. Yes. Indiana is post-industrial in a big way. Anderson, Muncie, Kokomo --

those towns are economically marginal. If you wanted to buy a house in Muncie, for example, you get get 2 or 3 for the price you'd pay for just one in Noblesville or West Lafayette.

Daniels will be harder to dislodge because he succeeded in winning the Honda plant for Greensburg, but he's still unpopular. "Major Moves" has been a controversy, nd he's just not a very approachable guy.

If Obama's coattails are long, Long-Thompson could be the new governor.