Ralph Nader Candidacy Helps Obama Expand Lead Over McCain!: NBC/WSJ Poll

[Better Believe It]

NBC/WSJ Poll: Obama keeps lead over McCain
Voters see Democrat as riskier pick, but rival has negatives of his own
By Mark Murray
Deputy political director
NBC News

After embarking on his highly publicized trip overseas, Obama enjoys a 47-41 percent advantage over McCain, which is unchanged from last month. The survey was conducted of 1,003 registered voters from Friday to Monday, July 18-21, during Obama's overseas trip. It has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.

But Obama’s lead over McCain expands to 13 points when third-party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added into the mix — with Obama at 48 percent, McCain at 35 percent, Nader at 5 percent and Barr at 2 percent.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25816799/

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Could Third-Party Hopefuls Foil McCain?
AOL News

Polls show Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama running close in the presidential election. But could third-party candidates siphon votes away from McCain, much as Ralph Nader was blamed for doing to Al Gore in 2000? The idea has been floating around for awhile, and this week's NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll underscores the possibility that such candidates could hurt McCain.

According to the poll results, Obama had a 6-point lead over McCain, even though most respondents thought he was a riskier pick for president. But when voters were asked to factor in two other candidates -- former GOP congressman Bob Barr, who's running for president as a Libertarian, and Nader, who's running as an independent -- Obama's lead opened up.

Here's how MSNBC summarized it: "... Obama’s lead over McCain expands to 13 points when third-party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added into the mix — with Obama at 48 percent, McCain at 35 percent, Nader at 5 percent and Barr at 2 percent. However, it’s important to note that the pro-Obama (48 percent) and anti-Obama vote (adding up to 42 percent) is consistent with the result from the two-way match up."

http://news.aol.com/elections/article/could-third-party-hopefuls-foil-mccain/98832

[mucifer]

1. I'm hoping barr's numbers will go up.

It goes to show how people aren't that excited about mcstupid.

[fascisthunter]

3. after Friday's Impeachment Hearings, They May

[BlooInBloo]

2. Way to get the spin out early this time! Kudos.

[Barack_America]

4. That's actually been quite consistent...

This isn't the first poll to show this trend. Why it is, I don't know. My suspicion would be that Barr pulls away members of the Republican base from McCain (obvious), but that Nader pulls away disgruntled/racist Democrats from McCain.

Thoughts?

[mucifer]

6. mccain's supporters are not nearly as enthusiatic for whatever reason as

Obama supporters. So given other choices some of them go to other candidates. I could be wrong.

[frogcycle]

8. spot on

I believe there is a component of mccains polling in 1 on 1 that is just plain "not the black guy."

Those go either to Barr or Nader when the option is there. And I wouldn't bet that the Nader ones are necessarily disgruntled or racist dems. They are probably just low-information voters who pick Nader from among the white alternatives because the name seems familiar somehow.

[writes3000]

12. Ding, ding! That's what I've been saying, too. n/t

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

17. Yeah, it is quite ironic that Nader seems to pull from McShame.

[Barack_America]

31. Lol. Another reason to put Kaine on the ticket.

Those LIVs just might fall for it!

[onehandle]

5. No way that Nader is actually pulling 5 points. Forget it.

Nader won't pull .5% in the GE.

Barr will help Obama way more than McCain in the end.

Fuck Nader!

[Better Believe It]

9. Huh????

"Nader won't pull .5% in the GE."

Well, that depends upon how many states (if any) Obama's campaign tries to stop people from voting for Nader by keeping his name off state election ballots. Nader will certainly poll more than 1% in states where he's permitted to run and will probably do better than Barr.

"Barr will help Obama way more than McCain in the end."

And do you conclude from the poll that Nader will help McCain? That doesn't make any sense.

"Fuck Nader!"

Well, you may love too but I'm not so sure Nader will let you.

Why don't you tell him that .... I bet the old man smacks you!

[tekisui]

40. How many states will Nader actually be on the ballot?

What 10-20? He pulled under one percent when he ran in 2004. His time has come and gone, he is an egoist, and unwilling to put in the work to build a party.

He's older than mccain and more irrelevant. I agree with the previous poster, fuck nader.


But, it is interesting to see him actually help Obama's numbers....

[Zynx]

7. What this is is that some Democrats who are not supportive of Obama who lean McCain

would rather vote third party.

[Kahuna]

10. Thanks Ralph, ya douche bag. nt

[Better Believe It]

11. Another Learned Intellectual Hands Out His Golden Nuggets Of Wisdom

Thanks for your intelligent contribution to this discussion.

Please tell us more .... please .... please .... pretty please!

If we're real lucky perhaps you will include the "F" word!

[Kahuna]

15. A Nader apologist. How quaint.

:eyes:

[tekisui]

41. Better Believe It!

[jazzjunkysue]

13. Lol. No even the RNC can find Ralph's shut-off switch.

Ralph should be careful: The dems will insult him, but the GOP knows how to take people out. There seem to be a disproportionate number of suicides over there....

[Arkana]

14. So...Nader HELPS Obama?

My brain just broke.

[writes3000]

16. He pulls white males from McCain.

Many, many anti-Obama voters are not excited by McCain. So Nader and Barr give those voters another option.

Nader will pull more votes from McCain than Obama.

McCain, Barr and Nader will fracture the conservative white male vote.

[Arkana]

25. But why?

I would think Nader would pull from Obama more than McCain--Barr's the one who'd siphon off McCain votes.

[writes3000]

28. Simple: You are underestimating how many voters are for McCain only because of Obama's race.

Let's imagine that you are a white Democrat who will not vote for Obama mostly because he is black.

In a race where you only have two options, McCain and Obama, those Democrats have already chosen McCain. It's already factored into the polls.

Now, if you open it up to a four person race, those Democrats don't have to choose McCain. They can vote Nader.

Obama's candidacy really changes dynamics within the electorate.

If some Dems voters are dead-set against Obama, they have already committed to McCain - not out of excitement but by lack of choice.

The rest of Obama's voters are keenly excited by him. So when you offer more choices (especially ones who look and sound much more like McCain than Obama), those extra options pull votes from the candidate with the least devoted base. McCain has the least devoted base.

Nader, Barr and McCain are all over 60, white male, establishment politicians.

Obama is new, under 50, interracial, dynamic politician of change.

Obama's voters are much more excited and committed than McCain's voters.

This creates new dynamics within the electorate.

[Arkana]

30. Ah, I see now.

The crazies in the Democratic Party who can't bring themselves to vote for Obama but still hate McCain will vote...Nader?

[writes3000]

33. EXACTLY & don't forget, it's also the enthusiasm factor.

Look at the polls. Only one in seven people who are planning to vote for McCain are excited about it.

With such low enthusiasm, those voters are far more likely to look for another choice.

Obama's voters are very excited to vote for him. So he's less likely to lose voters even when other options are presented.

[Better Believe It]

21. That's Right! That's What The Poll Shows

That's breaking the brains of a lot of Nader haters who just can't blame the Republican Party, George Bush and the Supreme Court for stealing the 2000 election. Blame it on Nader. Heck .... they actually think Joseph Leiberman helped Gore's campaign in 2000! How's that for a brain breaking idea!

And they further charge that Nader "stole" election votes in 2000!!??? Hey ... I thought that was a felony. And no charges?

Nader's been a convenient scapegoat for those who want to let the right-wing off the hook.

Do ya think the Republicans will whine about Nader "stealing" votes from McCain in this election?

Now that would be funny. Baaaa .... Waaaaa

[Cha]

18. That "riskier pick" kills me..

Like the last 8 years with the known mediawhore candidate "grab a beer wilth him bush" wasn't the pick outta the toilet and their pick this time is john mcsurgemouth.

[gulliver]

19. How does Obama go from 47% to 48% when Nader/Barr are added?

That is a curious result. Obama's support goes up when additional candidates are added to the mix?

[Better Believe It]

22. McCain Drops 6% And Obama Goes Up 1%

More people vote and fewer voters support McCain when they are added to the mix.

[Barack_America]

32. Some people voting McCain switch to Nader.

I'll let you draw your own conclusions as to why somebody who agrees with Nader's policies might vote for McCain over Obama.

This result has been seen in other polls as well. It's real.

[my3boyz]

20. Well, look for Nader to drop out. He only wants to spoil the race for dems. nt

[Better Believe It]

23. That's An Old Worn Out DLC Talking Point: Try Something New

and original.

[Kahuna]

24. I'm sure there is a Nader forum where you can go and feel right at home..

This is a "Democratic" forum. Got it?

[Better Believe It]

26. Do You Have Any Idea What You Are Talking About?

It's clear from the poll that Nader's candidacy is helping Obama and hurting McCain and you don't like that?

Well that's just to bad.

Now try to deal with the subject rather than engage in personal attacks and old DLC talking points that are totally irrelevant in this election.

Wake up.

This is 2008 not 2000!

Got it?

[Name removed]

34. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Better Believe It]

35. My .... What A Powerful Response!

The golden nuggets of wisdom are just dripping off your lips!

:) :) :)

Perhaps you'd be happier if Obama did poorly with Nader in the race?

[Kahuna]

36. Shut up.

[Better Believe It]

37. Yet Another Powerful Response!

Well, at least you spelled the words right!

:) :) :)

If you're incapable of responding to articles why do you post here?

Sorry.

That probably went way, way, way over your head.

[Tarheel_Dem]

47. At least Kahuna, like so many of us, financially supports this site,

as denoted by the beautiful star next to his name. I think you took a wrong turn, this is not Ralph Nader Underground.

[Kahuna]

39. If you're incapable of COMPREHENDING responses, why submit an OP?

duh.

[Cha]

44. Sorry, it's not a dlc talking point.. it's a

fact. nader is useless and a liar..I disliked him in 2000 and it's only gotten worse.

[depakid]

27. That outcome would change if Obama picks a DLC hack for VP

and starts pandering to the far right again.

[mzmolly]

29. I'm thinking it's the BARR equation that helps?

;)

[darius15]

38. Barr won't have a nationwide effect

Only in Georgia (home state) and South Carolina (very conservative, conservatives aren't happy with McCain) will Barr get 3-6 percent.

Nader will get 2-3 percent in every state he's on, I'm pretty sure.

[mzmolly]

43. I disagree Darius.

Respectfully of course.

Welcome. :hi:

[tekisui]

45. The state's matter.

If Barr can swing GA and/or SC for Obama, that's the election.

Nader won't be running Nationally, anyway. He will be on some 15-20 state ballots, and get less than 3% in each of those.

[BlooInBloo]

42. It's sad when people try to nudge inside the DU rules forbidding Nader advocacy....

It's sadder still that it works.

[Better Believe It]

46. It's Even Sadder When Someone Attempts To Make Up Their Own Rules

and makes false accusations like you just did.

I take it you either dispute the poll (without indicating why) or you wish that Nader was hurting Obama's candidacy by "stealing" more votes away from Obama than McCain.

So which is it?

I guess the poll just doesn't fit the old DLC 2000 talking points so you'll have to do lot better.

Be original.

Oh I know!

Why not accuse the original poster of being a super secret Nader campaigner or better yet some kind of McCain agent or perhaps an angry Hillary Clinton supporter or perhaps ____________________________ you fill in the blanks.

Sorry. That b.s. just won't fly here. Try it somewhere else.

[anonymous171]

48. Looks like some PUMAs are liberals after all.

They prefer voting for someone who is to the left of Obama, rather than the right.