The Daily Widget – Monday, July 28 – Obama 364, McCain 174 – More Comparisons to 2004

[phrigndumass]

Contents:
1. Tidbits
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources


* * * * * * *


1. TIDBITS – More Comparisons to 2004

My curiosity was aroused again yesterday by those who believe this year’s election results will be similar to that of 2004 or 2000, with just a couple states deciding differently to create a very narrow Obama win. It’s true we currently have a lock on all the Kerry states from 2004, but we’re seeing something very different this year … something we haven’t seen since 1996.

We should expect both sides to receive strong support from certain states. These are their base states, or their safe states. In 2004, each candidate’s safe states were fairly evenly distributed with regards to electoral votes.

We can see on the graph below that Bush (dark red line) was ranging between 130 and 170 electoral votes from strong states all year long. Bush had a solid, unwavering base. Kerry’s (dark blue line) range was greater with huge swings, but sometimes his EV total from strong states was more than Bush’s and sometimes it was less. Obama (light blue line) and McCain (orange line) haven’t crossed paths yet this year with regards to electoral vote totals from strong states.





The graph below will help us see the big picture more clearly. It shows the Democratic candidate’s lead over the Republican candidate regarding electoral vote totals from strong states only.

First, notice where the line for Zero is. The blue shaded area above zero denotes the Democratic-leading territory. The red shaded area below zero denotes the Republican-leading territory. A negative number shows the Democratic candidate trailing.

The line for 2004 (red line) hovered around the Zero marker for a majority of the election season. Only eight weeks during 2004 did one candidate lead the other candidate by more than 50 strong electoral votes (Kerry led only twice by greater than 50, and Bush led 6 times by greater than 50).

However, the line for 2008 (blue line) hasn’t been anywhere near the Zero marker since early May. Obama has led McCain by greater than 50 strong electoral votes for eleven straight weeks, five of those weeks by a margin of greater than 100.





True, McCain is a weaker candidate than Bush. But we shouldn’t discount the fact that Obama is a stronger candidate than Kerry and Gore. The last time the difference in strength between the two presidential candidates was so lopsided was in 1996, when Clinton beat Dole 379 to 159 in the Electoral College and by a margin of eight million votes.


* * * * * * *


2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


* * * * * * *


3. NEW STATE POLLS

Only four polls were released since Friday. Colorado switches back to blue for Obama, while South Carolina gets as red as it can get for McCain. California is now showing only a 10-point spread. The last poll for California showed a 24-point lead for Obama. But only 500 likely voters were polled this time, and that’s hardly a sample of California voters.


California Obama 52, McCain 42 (Rasmussen, 7/24, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Colorado Obama 45, McCain 41 (Frederick Polls, 7/22, +/- 3.7, 700 LV)
New Mexico Obama 49, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 7/24, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
South Carolina Obama 40, McCain 53 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 7/23, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


* * * * * * *


4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


* * * * * * *


5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


* * * * * * *


6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


* * * * * * *


7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART








* * * * * * *


8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[tekisui]

1. knr!

I like seeing mclame's low ceiling. It is clearly illustrated in the first two graphs.

I hope to see some of these swing states polled with naderbarr, regularly to get a better idea of where we are heading, although I have a pretty good idea.

Happy Monday, prign! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

2. That's a good term for it ... "low ceiling"

Naderbarr 2008 = Perot 1996, don't you think? It seems to be shaping up that way.

:donut: Good morning, tek! :hi:

[RNdaSilva]

3. Checking in...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2b5eM7lrDw

[phrigndumass]

6. LOL! McCain should definitely be "blue"

about Obama's headline!

:donut: Good morning, RN! :hi:

[RNdaSilva]

13. Mornin'

This is my favorite thread. It doesn't argue with me, nor talk back to me, and we're usually in agreement.

[phrigndumass]

14. All the qualities we seek in a mate :)

Thanks for saying that, RN! :blush: You made my day.

:bounce:

[fight4my3sons]

4. Good morning, phrigndumass!

However, the line for 2008 (blue line) hasn’t been anywhere near the Zero marker since early May. Obama has led McCain by greater than 50 strong electoral votes for eleven straight weeks, five of those weeks by a margin of greater than 100.

:bounce:

Well, that makes your Monday morning a bit better doesn't it?

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

7. Ya can't beat that with a stick! :)

The red and blue shading is for Lil Math Dude, lol

Every post today should have a bounce :bounce: in it for Obama's headline (see RN's reply above).

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

9. I saw it!

and I agree :)





:bounce: :bounce: (one from LMD)

[Demeter]

5. Good Morning P-Man and Faithful Widget Readers!

While the confirmed strength of "the math" (Karl Rove's immortal phrase) is a daily reassurance, I must admit that the next 100 days are going to be long ones.

We really need to tighten up the electoral schedule somewhere. The suspense is killing me!

[phrigndumass]

10. Yep, the next 100 days will probably cut a path straight through the mud, lol

Best to start down that path with a nine-point national lead :D

Since McCain really has nothing to run on, it'll probably be all negatives coming from his camp.

:donut: Good morning, Demeter :hi:

:bounce:

[TexasObserver]

8. Good work. I think we will win 30 states.

[phrigndumass]

11. I wouldn't be surprised :)

And it really doesn't matter which 30 states, because it'll be a win. :bounce:

:donut: Good morning, TO :hi:

[TexasObserver]

12. And I think your projections on the Electoral vote are dead on.

I believe we will get 300-350 electoral votes, and it could be a huge win.

[phrigndumass]

15. Off to work kick

Enjoy your day! :bounce:

[grantcart]

16. Re # 6 Its interesting that the state by state popular vote margin is

narrowing while the national polls are all showing seperation.

[phrigndumass]

18. That's Rasmussen "playing" in the big states

Rasmussen took a poll of 500 likely California voters. That comes to 0.0014% of the California population, probably at an IHOP in San Diego. They found a 10-point spread, when before it was a 24-point spread. Rasmussen also found 500 people in Texas and New York that didn't hang up on them.

Whatever bias that existed in their national polls a week or two ago, it still exists in their state polling.

:crazy:

:bounce:

[Awsi Dooger]

22. You can't seriously believe a 24 point gap in California

+10 is probably somewhat low but it's much closer to ballpark than +24. Any projected vote gap that uses +24 is laughable. You only get gaps like that in states with self-identified liberals significantly higher in number than self-identified conservatives. That hardly describes California, which is basically balanced in those percentages, normally 1 or 2% more conservatives. Again, it's the difference in following this stuff closely for 12+ years with knowledge of applied variables, and a novice-like latching hold of early state polls and assuming them as gospel.

Nothing wrong with a sample size of 500.

[phrigndumass]

24. I'm expecting Obama +15 in California at this point

Dearest Awsi Dooger, you have made yet another incorrect, negative assumption about me. Shall I summarize them? I get a new one in every reply from you.

Your phrasing is unfortunate. Do you socialize well with others? I certainly don't want to assume that you socialize poorly with others, so I am inquiring.

Try this: Instead of assuming that I take the poll with a 24-point spread as gospel, just ask me! I'll give you an example: "Phrig, do you really believe Obama will win by 24 points in California?"

If you would have asked, I would have responded, "No, but I'm expecting Obama +15 in California at this point."

But if I responded, "Yes, I do," you might be tempted to disagree and I will welcome that. We could use that as an opportunity to hold a rational discussion and possibly learn from each other. I would welcome that as well.

These little snivels and digs and at me in your replies are unwelcome and counter-constructive.

:hi:

[rufus dog]

17. thanks

KICK

[phrigndumass]

19. yw rdog

:hi: :kick:

[grantcart]

20. Bounce

[Demeter]

21. I'm Not Seeing A Bounce

But it does look like McCain has stalled--topped out. Now he should start sinking, either during or right after the GOP convention.....

[phrigndumass]

23. ...

Will kick for recs :D

:bounce: