Romney's Effect On the Map

[ccharles000]

If Bob Novak is circulating internal polls showing Mitt Romney helping John McCain in Michigan, you can be pretty sure that the Republican establishment is behind the idea of making Romney McCain's VP. It's easy enough to understand why. Romney has been a good team player: an excellent fundraiser and a tireless campaigner. He is unlikely to embarrass either himself or the ticket. And he could potentially be an asset in several states, among them Michigan, New Hampshire and Nevada.

But Romney also comes with several liabilities which, when combined with his strengths, would tend to produce a very interesting electoral map.

One of the more reliable indicators we have identified for electoral strength is a candidate's fundraising numbers. Mitt Romney raised quite a bit of money -- about $60 million from individual contributors, of which $48 million came in large enough chunks to require disclosure to the FEC. Thus, we can look at Romney's fundraising totals in each state.

As a basis for comparison, we will use George W. Bush's fundraising haul in 2004, which included about $190 million in individual contributions that were large enough to be tallied by the FEC. Overall, Romney raised about 25 percent as much as Bush (again, counting only those contributions that the FEC itemized). But the ratio varied significantly from state to state. Romney raised just 2 percent as much as Bush in Arkansas, but 972 percent as much in Utah. A complete accounting of the Romney v. Bush numbers is below; states where we presently project the McCain-Obama matchup to finish within 6 percentage points are highlighted in yellow.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/07/romneys-effect-on-map.html

[darius15]

1. Already posted

[ccharles000]

3. ...

I know I just saw it.

[Alter Ego]

2. By all means, let McCain put the man who is viewed by Americans

as the greasiest, oiliest politician in the entire world. Maybe Romney will deliver a few votes in Michigan and maybe he will solidify the "true conservatives" behind Gramps, but Obama will still win Michigan--so what good does he do? The economy's so far in the shitter that Michiganders shouldn't trust a thing out of McCain's or Romney's lying mouths.

Also, there's that teensy little fact that they hate each other.

[MidwestTransplant]

4. The guy who made his living by downsizing companies will be greeted with much fanfare in OH and PA

and MI