WTF?? USA Today/Gallup has McCain up by 4 (49-45 LV)

[jezebel]

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/
Gains for McCain in latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll
Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.

The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.

Among registered voters, McCain still trails Obama, but by less. He is behind by 3 percentage points in the new poll (47%-44%) vs. a 6-point disadvantage (48%-42%) in late June.

Results based on the survey of 791 likely voters have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points -- so McCain's lead is not outside that range. Results based on the survey of 900 registered voters also have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

Gallup editor Frank Newport tells Jill that "registered voters are much more important at the moment," because Election Day is still 100 days away, but that the likely-voter result suggests that it may be possible for McCain to energize Republicans and turn them out this fall.

Who is a likely voter? In this poll, Frank says, that was determined by how much thought people have given to the election, how often they say they vote and whether they plan to vote in the election in November.

He says the number of likely GOP voters is up for now, probably in part because of Obama's trip and the "laudatory" media coverage of it. "At least in the short term it may have had the side effect of energizing Republicans," he says. Also, he says that McCain's sharp words about Obama and the media last week may have energized his faithful.

Check Pollster.com's charts to compare the USA TODAY/Gallup results to those from other pollsters. Other recent polls of likely voters had Obama slightly ahead.

The USA TODAY/Gallup Poll is separate from Gallup's daily "tracking" poll on the presidential race, which this afternoon shows Obama ahead by 8 points among registered voters -- 48%-40%.

Frank says that while the tracking poll indicates Obama may have gotten some gains from his overseas trip last week, any benefits may be short-lived. That tracking poll of 2,674 registered voters was also done Friday-Sunday and the margins of error on the results are +/- 2 percentage points.

As for the difference between the tracking and USA TODAY/Gallup polls, Frank says not to read too much into it. "Statistical noise" may be largely to blame.

Watch for more from the polls and analysis of the results later today at USATODAY.com and in tomorrow's print editions of USA TODAY.

[ErinBerin84]

1. Hmmm, just a LITTLE BIT fishy.

[Renew Deal]

36. Just as one of their polls says he's up by 9, this comes out?

This sounds pretty fucking strange.

http://news.aol.com/elections/article/obamas-lead-over-mccain-grows-in-poll/102541

[chitty]

2. HUH!

[Barack_America]

3. LIKELY voters...

Which means, "take out all the blacks and young voters...overrepresent the white old folks...and voila! the desired poll result!"

[Beetwasher]

4. "Likely" Voters: Their Definition Of "Likely Voters" Is Really A Propoganda Tool

They use to skew the results. Gallup is notorious for releasing propoganda polls. "likely voters" is a bullshit term they use to create a formula that allows them to only use data that favors the GOP in order to release a propoganda poll under the guise of a legitimate poll. It's utter and total bullshit.

[MoonRiver]

29. People usually are asked to self-identify themselves as "likely," or not,

at least on the polls I've participated in.

[JaneQPublic]

5. Today's Gallup poll says 48-40 in Obama's favor

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109126/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-McCain-40.aspx

[Carrieyazel]

11. Gallup's daily tracking poll, and this monthly poll are two seperate polls

Don't ask me why, but the tracking poll is registered voters and the other poll with USA Today polls likely voters. There may be other differences as well with methodology, etc.

[fed_up_mother]

6. Obama is the anti christ

is still making its way around the web - fast and furiously. Honestly, I've received these messages from fairly "non" right wing Christians. The fear and hype out there is ridiculous, and starting to make we wonder if he can get elected.

I can't believe this crap. I spend more time answering these emails than I do taking care of things I should be taking care of! argggghhhh However, this is such a pivotal election, I don't believe any of us can do too much. I'm so scared for our country's future. Imagine it getting any worse. :(

[TwilightGardener]

7. Between the fake Bagram email and the Landstuhl swiftboating, I'm not too surprised.

[margotb822]

8. In preparation of a stolen election

the false idea that this is a close election.

Seriously, though, national polls are crap. As we well know, winners of states win elections, not the winner of the popular vote.

[flamingdem]

12. Yes otherwise the stealing looks stinky

Does anyone have links or ways to address the stealing issue in Florida or elsewhere. We need to create a schtink over this issue now!

[margotb822]

20. I know there has been attention brought to

the purging of the voter rolls. I think we also need to look into that.

[Indenturedebtor]

9. LBN!!! Gallup announces McCain camp is preparing to steal the election n/t

[high density]

10. A 10% difference Is "statistical noise?" They should just stop polling

I can't believe people can publish garbage like this and make money off of it.

[sourmilk]

13. Just another part of the problem:

"Gallup editor Frank Newport tells Jill that "registered voters are much more important at the moment,""

Considering the number of registered Democrats that some State Authorities are already busy purging from voter rolls in KS, MI, LA, NM, CO and FLA , he's right.

[Mass]

14. The article tells us they do not believe it. They are telling us it is in the MOE and that the RV

results show Obama still ahead.

(I am curious to see the internals. Probably a sample heavy on the Republican side)

[my3boyz]

15. Well, Chris Matthews and David Gregory will be pimping the hell out of it tonight.

Then they have their poll coming out tonight too. They will have a good 'ol time.

[dempartisan23]

16. not unexpected

we are being destroyed on gas prices and the whole focus of obama is on iraq which makes no sense.

[book_worm]

18. how do the gas prices help McCain?

[dempartisan23]

22. its simple. obama messed up with fisa

he decided to appear moderate on an issue the public could not care less about. i said obama should have favored drilling before mccain did. its too late now. we have no answer to high gas prices and all we can hope for now is gas prices come down so its not an issue. its incredible that we look to lose an election that should be a lock to win.

[mvd]

24. Yes we do have an answer to high gas prices

Stop the oil companies from ignoring the reserves they do have. If they drilled more offshore, they would sit on that, too. We need to articulate this message more, but there's no reason drilling would decrease his numbers now.

I might have been wrong that his FISA vote was the politically correct one. Hard to tell.

The daily Gallup poll dropped only by 1, so no concern yet. The Swift-boating can't be said to have worked yet.

[muryan]

38. Look to lose?

This is the first national poll in which McCain has a lead. Its also one with questionable methodology. But thanks for your concern

[Beetwasher]

19. "focus of obama is on iraq which makes no sense. "

LOL! Because Iraq is so popular? :rofl:

Your post makes no sense. This poll is obviously bullshit. McCain's "lead" is among the bogus category of "likely voters".

[Alcibiades]

33. It makes perfect sense

The invasion of Iraq has caused today's high gas prices.

[book_worm]

17. Gallup needs to pick one poll. Which is it his tracking poll or this monthly poll?

[Barack_America]

21. Actually, they need to decide between "registered voters" and "likely voters"..

I hope they stay with "likely voters", that way McCain will be in for the shock of his life come November. There's a lot of folks who don't fit their "likely" criteria who will sure as hell be voting this year.

[Colobo]

23. Obama will whoop McClown's ass badly. Trust me.

[VADem11]

25. it's a bad likely voter model

Here's a link to the raw numbers : http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2008/7/28/1538/71930/93#c93

[featherman]

26. The tale is in the poll itself: arbitrary designation of LV's

[Teaser]

27. the very definition of outlier.

.

[jefferson_dem]

28. "Statistical noise" ? Uh-huh. I want to see the partisan breakdown of this sample.

If I recall, USA Today/Gallup does not weight their sample. Wanna bet they over-sampled repukes?

[kurtboss]

32. No Doubt

And you expect more of this. From the looks of it they did around a 50-50 Dem GOP poll. But that's just a guess. Since the poll won't release any methodology or breakdowns you can count on it being nonsense any which way you look at it.


Obama is breaking away, they'll tighten the polls to it look close. Anyone can play this game. Along with the Fox bullshit poll, old Ras tracking and this stupidity, you get Mara Prolife/Fox Shill Liason saying it's a 3.2 percent horse race. No mention of the bounce, or how the polls were done.

[Bleacher Creature]

30. COMPLETE CRAP.

This diary on DailyKos does a really nice job of debunking it.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/7/28/1610/41863/31/558320

[highplainsdem]

31. Do NOT believe it. Today's Gallup tracking poll shows O with 8 pt lead, 3 pt in Rasmussen tracking.

I think that USA TODAY/Gallup poll is skewed way too far toward Republicans.

[kurtboss]

34. Believe it...But Just Remember It's Bullshit

If I go to a GOP convention and take a poll Obama probably gets under 10 percent. It's all about model, if they weight, how they phrase the questions, which areas do they call, etc etc.

The Newsweek Poll from mid June is a pretty sound model, and it had Obama up 15. My guess is he's a little higher than that.


This does stink though. Pretty fucking convenient to have a poll like out right when Obama is taking off.

[Renew Deal]

35. So they have different polls running at the same exact time with opposite results?

How does that make sense? Just as there is a poll showing Obama up by 9, there is another one from the same organization showing him down 4? That is bizarre.

http://news.aol.com/elections/article/obamas-lead-over-mccain-grows-in-poll/102541

[kurtboss]

37. The One is a tiny sample

The tracking has far more people surveyed. Even so, the McCain by 4 silliness actually has Obama up 3 amongst people they surveyed...they just discounted 16 percent of them. Nice trick, huh? Especially when GOP party ID is tanking, Obama enthusiasm is way high, as you point out their other poll shows Obama ahead by more. No effing way.


But, what do you expect from the media. They'll be calling this a horserace all the way to the wire. And then Obama will win easy.