David Gergen says Gallup poll today has McCain up by FOUR!!??!!

[Gabi Hayes]

is that correct? must be

too lazy to check

yesterday it had Obama up by nine

thirteen point swing in one day?

is there some qualification by Gergen I'm missing?

WTF???

will check gallup, but how can this be possible?

[BlooInBloo]

1. Sure - if you just make shit up.

[tbyg52]

10. That was my first thought. nt

[Olney Blue]

2. He will say anything

[Gabi Hayes]

8. gergen was very harsh w/McCain last week, with the statement about

Obama willing to lose the war to gain the presidency

said it was one of the worst things he's heard in any presidential campaign.

dunno if I missed some sort of qualifying remark before he said McCain was ahead by four, and I'm almost positive he said Gallup, not any other poll

[Gabi Hayes]

3. I dunno what the hell Gergen was talking about, but here:

http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx

Obama by eight

I did NOT mistake what Gergen said....McCain by four, and I didn't hear any qualification.

anybody else watching Larry King? did I get it wrong?

I don't understand WTF he was talking about

[MonkeyFunk]

18. he's talking about the difference between registered and likely voters

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109135/Who-Likely-Voters-When-They-Matter.aspx

[Hippo_Tron]

4. Gallup tracking is Obama +9 USAToday/Gallup is McThesulah +4

Which tells me that Gallup has no credibility whatsoever.

[11 Bravo]

5. There are 3 separate Gallup's out there currently.

Senator Obama leads in two of them.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. It's not the same Gallup poll.

Gallup releases two polls, their daily tracking poll, which has Obama up 8 and their static poll, which is taken over 3 days and then released. That has McCain up 4 among LIKELY VOTERS, while Obama leads by 3 among ALL VOTERS.

[JackORoses]

7. monthly poll, looks like shite

Obama still up 8 in the Gallup Daily

[Pirate Smile]

9. Different Gallup poll then the Daily Tracking poll. It is with USA Today.

Obama leads among registered voters but when they do the "likely voter" screen it gives McCain a lead.

[Gabi Hayes]

11. OK...thanks. I linked the Gallup daily

that's why I said I wondered about the qualifiying

will check for the USA/Gallup and see what they've been showing

are they daily/weekly/monthly?

thx for the info

[Pirate Smile]

17. I believe the USA Today/Gallup poll is monthly.

[whistle]

16. Well that's just plain dishonest by the polling company, how can there be

....two different Gallup Polls on the same subject?

[Teaser]

23. uh, because USA today paid them to conduct a poll for them

.

[whistle]

27. No, to infer that the USA Today Poll was in fact the same as the regular Gallup Political poll

[ErinBerin84]

12. lol, in what context was he talking about it ?

Kind of disingenuous to bring up this Gallup poll without bringing up the tracking one, most of the coverage I have seen on the + 4 have mentioned how it differs from their daily tracking poll.

[Gabi Hayes]

14. he didn't mention the tracking poll. thanks to prosense:

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/07/new_poll_mccain_leading_among.php

from the prosense thread

[unblock]

13. up by four in the morning worried sick about getting schellacked in november!

[jaysunb]

15. McCain is up by 14, ok ?

Now get off your buns and volunteer. :evilgrin:

[Bobbie Jo]

19. Are they polling LIVE/ADULT People?

Put down the crack pipe, Gergen...:spank:

[Clear Blue Sky]

20. The polls are all over the map.

Meaning they are worthless at this point.

Reality is that the race is close and that there is lot of time left for us to make it not-close.

[Teaser]

24. No, actually they're not "all over the map"

Obama is consistently ahead in nearly every poll, on nearly every measure.

[Clear Blue Sky]

28. I heard of one with McCain up among likely voters.

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/bulletin/bulletin_080729.htm

Depends whether it's likely or registered voters.

My point is that there is too much inherent error in polls at this stage of the game to spend much time dwelling on them. Just run the campaign and the polls will take care of themselves.

[book_worm]

21. depends on which gallup poll you look at. Looks like Gallup is trying to play in both sides

[TheKentuckian]

22. While it's about inconceivable that we could be even close

it won't hurt to dig like we're down huge.

Whatever can be done we need more of it. McCain is sucking at historic levels and Obama is pretty much serving aces. The difference is on the ground.

I suggest as many people as possible see McCain's Viagra & birth control interview (with Cary's lie fest, for added value), this is pretty much definitive in what people don't want to see out of the leader of the free world and his people. Every mind changed has a contacts list.

[Teaser]

26. no, they just conduct multiple different polls for different organizations

ugh...my god, everything isn't a conspiracy theory. Sometimes pollsters are just wrong.

They're not being wrong out of spite.

[npincus]

25. that was yesterday, and I think a poll of likely voters.

The "registered voters" Gallup had Obama up.

In my opionion, Obama needs overwhelming turnout in order to win. Turnout is everything.