The Daily Widget – Tuesday, July 29 – Obama 364, McCain 174 – Comparing the “Big 12” National Polls

[phrigndumass]

Contents:
1. Tidbits
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources


* * * * * * *


1. TIDBITS – Comparing the “Big 12” National Polls

Since no new state polls were released yesterday, I thought I would give us an update and comparison of the national polls. Let’s refer to the chart below as the “National Poll Widget.” I’ll update it and repost it occasionally for tracking.

The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart.

The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.





Looking at the top section, we can see that Obama’s current average lead over McCain is 4.7 percentage points in the Daily Tracking polls. Obama’s average lead over McCain since May 1 is 3.5 percentage points in the Daily Tracking polls. We can conclude that Obama’s current lead in the Daily Trackers is “above average.” That’s a good sign.

Now looking at the bottom section, we can see that Obama’s current average lead over McCain is 5.0 percentage points in the Monthly polls. Obama’s average lead over McCain since May 1 is 5.2 percentage points in the Monthly polls. We can conclude that Obama’s current lead in the Monthly polls is slightly “below average.” Still, not bad.

Obama is currently polling overall at 47.2%, which is slightly below his average of 47.6%. McCain is currently polling overall at 42.2%, which is slightly below his average of 42.8%. Since both candidates are currently polling below their averages, we can conclude that the national polls are currently showing a higher than average percentage of voters who are either undecided or are supporting a third-party candidate.


* * * * * * *


2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


* * * * * * *


3. NEW STATE POLLS

No new state polls were released yesterday.


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


* * * * * * *


4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


* * * * * * *


5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


* * * * * * *


6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


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7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART








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8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[rateyes]

1. K & R

:kick:

[phrigndumass]

2. Good morning, rateyes

Thanks for reading! :hi:

[rateyes]

3. Good morning, and

thanks for all the hard work. :hi:

[DarthDem]

4. K & R

Thanks, phrig. Great stuff for those mornings when I get on to DU early.

I wonder when Obama is going to unleash some more state-specific ads? I may have missed some key developments, but it seems as though he's holding back a bit. I'm thinking that CO, NV, and NM would be great targets right now. Maybe MT as well.

Thanks again! Morning!
:hi:

[phrigndumass]

6. That's a good question about state-specific ads

I would guess he'll wait until after the convention :shrug:

The states you mentioned are included in the Obama campaign's 18 target states. I've read that they plan on targeting these states heavily. The usual game plan is to wait until summer is over and everything is getting back to routine before making big ad buys. But it's nice to hear that the grassroots "ground" effort is already underway in many of those states.

:donut: Good morning, DarthDem! :hi:

[DarthDem]

8. Right! Thanks!

Thanks for reminding me about the usual procedure. I've tried to block Kerry's 2004 campaign from my mind, and I don't recall Al Gore's ad campaign schedule from 2000 terribly well, although I think the timetable you laid out is correct.

It would be nice to get some ads on the air right now in response to McDork's nonsensical "blame gas prices on Obama" campaign, but a later blitz probably makes more sense, particularly with the Olympics now on the way.

[fight4my3sons]

5. Good morning, phrigndumass!

I'm not sure that I understand everything that is going on in that first chart up there, but when you average everything all out it seems to be ok and I trust you. :)

Plus, the colors are nice.

[phrigndumass]

7. Hiya fight!

I like how the one poll showing McCain leading sticks out like a sore thumb on the chart :D

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

9. ok, you and the LMD

are just scary. That is the first thing he said to me. "Mommy, what is that red number?" :rofl:

[phrigndumass]

10. Ha! Great minds think alike :)

This thumbs up ---> :thumbsup: <--- is for Lil Math Dude! :D

[phrigndumass]

11. Off to work kick

Enjoy your day! :kick:

[jefferson_dem]

12. Great numbers! Thanks!

You are a DU treasure.

:kick:

[phrigndumass]

16. (blushing)

Thanks jd! :hi:

[Upton]

13. What to do you think is going on in Ohio?

I was thinking Obama had a good chance there and then we get hit with the latest Rasmussen poll showing McCain 10% up. Anyway, great work as usual.

[phrigndumass]

17. With Ohio, it's always hard to tell

I'd like to see another poll or two for Ohio to make sure, though. Fingers crossed! :hi:

[grantcart]

14. OK now this is officially funny

The "Fox Poll" is the only one that has Obama less than 46%

What a shocker

Great new chart

[phrigndumass]

18. LOL ... they report, you decide

Uh, I've made my decision! Fox sucks.

Only three of the Big 12 have averages more than one point off the overall average for Obama. Two of them are on the high side, and only one is on the low side: Fox.

Thanks! :hi:

[Demeter]

15. As One of the Michiganders (Michigeese? Michigooses?) I Must Protest!

I know that I live in the People's Republic of Ann Arbor, and therefore other parts of the state may be a tad less blue, but I've got to think Michigan is doing more than "leaning" Obama. In spite of the rabid right (on the left side of the state), Michigan has fallen down for Obama, positively swooned, and after two decades or more of misrule by the GOP at state and federal levels, it's quite understandable!

Hoping your polling resources get refreshed as regards the great state of Michigan, my native land forever, I bid you good evening and cheer the great job you do!

[phrigndumass]

19. Surely the pollsters must learn about this!

It is but a slap in the face. May that face belong to them!

:D

[Egnever]

20. Bump