The plus and minuses of Tim Kaine as Obama's VP by Larry Sabato

[book_worm]

Plusses:

1. Personal Chemistry

There can be little doubt that this is the main reason why Obama is looking at Kaine. The first state governor outside Obama's Illinois to endorse Obama for President, Kaine was immediately drawn to the Illinois senator because they are two peas in a political pod. Both Harvard Law graduates with Kansas roots, both attorneys with a central focus on civil rights, and both relatively new to the big leagues, Obama and Kaine clearly like one another and enjoy each other's company.

Obama has realized that a modern Vice President practically lives with the Chief Executive, especially in times of crisis, and he wants someone he can trust completely. One other similarity that some see is less flattering. Obama and Kaine are both supremely self-confident, and their adversaries (and even some of their friends) occasionally detect a hint of hubris and arrogance. On the other hand, we have never known a President or governor who was genuinely humble. That special quality possessed by the meek doesn't go hand in hand with high political office.


4. Virginia

For decades, analysts prematurely proclaimed that the Old Dominion had become the New Dominion, and in the twenty-first century it's finally true. Among the most improbable of 2008's toss-up states, Virginia is on the knife's edge. It is not unreasonable to expect the sitting Governor to add a couple of points to Obama's total. Kaine is popular (mid-50s in most surveys), though not wildly so, as was his predecessor, Mark Warner, who is currently cruising to a big U.S. Senate victory in the state.

Oh, it almost goes without saying that John McCain would have a very difficult time finding the 13 electoral votes he might lose in Virginia. Keep in mind that Virginia has voted Republican in thirteen of the last fourteen presidential contests (save only LBJ's in 1964), and the state is tied for the best GOP record in the nation. Even Georgian Jimmy Carter, who won all the other states of the South, couldn't take Virginia. Defeat in the New Dominion would be a major and perhaps decisive blow to McCain. Could Tim Kaine be the first VP nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1960 to deliver a critical, toss-up home state for his ticket?

Big Minuses:
4. The Aftermath in Virginia

Naturally, Obama would not be especially concerned about the post-Kaine era in Virginia, and given the frustrations of his governorship, one could hardly blame Kaine for grabbing a chance to move up and out--and eventually perhaps have his own shot at the presidency. However, many Virginia Democrats are privately unhappy at the prospect of Kaine leaving in mid-term, potentially the first Virginia governor not to complete the single four-year term since it was established beginning in 1852. That is because Kaine would be succeeded by a deeply conservative Republican lieutenant governor, Bill Bolling.

For complete story

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/vice_president_tim_kaine

[TwilightGardener]

1. Chief concern: That this would be portrayed as a lightweight ticket, especially

depending on whom McCain chooses. Second concern: They overlap too much. Does Obama need another Obama? He might LIKE Kaine, and that's nice and all that they are friends and know the same people in KS, but what expertise does Kaine bring to Obama? Third concern: Kaine is new to national stage, might not be polished enough, might not have the credibility to step in and defend Obama from various attacks--especially on national security and military stuff, like the current Pentagon swiftboating about Landstuhl.

[TwilightGardener]

2. I was hopin' someone would argue this. Guess not.

[Virginia Dare]

3. I'll bite wienerdoggie..

on your question about what Tim Kaine brings to the table..he's a fluent spanish speaker, he was the mayor of Richmond, which has a large African-American population. His wife is the daughter of a former Republican Governor of Virginia, a man who stood up to the Dixiecrats and enrolled his children in a desegregated high school. He was the recipient of a vicious swiftboat like attack in the midst of a very nasty and contentious campaign for Virginia Governor and he managed to ride above it. He's done a pretty good job keeping the right wing fundies in Virginia in check, although he hasn't yet proved himself as well as Mark Warner did.

I think that should Tim Kaine be the nominee that he will pleasantly surprise many people here. He's a John Edwards style Democrat.

[TwilightGardener]

4. OK--thanks. I admit he's not my first choice, but I will support him if he's chosen.

[Virginia Dare]

6. I honestly don't think you'll find it hard to do....n/t

[grantcart]

5. I think its hard to argue because quite frankly most of us know very little

about him.

[Virginia Dare]

7. That's not necessarily a bad thing..

and I would argue that few people knew anything about Dick Cheney back in 2000. V.P.'s don't make or break elections anyway, that's been proven. Remember Dan Quayle?...:rofl:

[TwilightGardener]

8. As to the lightweight-ticket part, I hope Obama will consider surrounding

himself visibly with foreign policy and national-security heavyweights, same as he just did with his economic summit--not because Obama really needs the help--I know he knows his stuff--but because it will be a reassurance that there ARE some old hands on deck. I fear what Kaine or Sebelius will say in a VP debate if the questions turn to Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, etc.--they had better learn this shit fast, or we're fucked. That's why I think Biden and (gack) Bayh might be better choices.

[grantcart]

9. "lightweight"

I have to laugh really when other people bring this up. You have two men who not only went to Harvard Law School but they marry top Harvard Law School professionals who excel in their fields. Kaines' wife is a Juvenile Court Judge.

I wonder when in the history of the United States we have had two couples in Pres and Vpres that held that many post graduate degrees and were so successful that they had a total of 4 top flight professional careers between the 4 of them.

[TwilightGardener]

10. Well, I'm not that bowled over by where people go to college (like Chimpy). Or who they marry.

I settled on Obama as soon as he ran because I recognized a brilliance in him--it went beyond his resume--I could see he had the foresight, judgment, ambition, and political skills to win and become a good Prez. So I have full faith in his abilities, even though he hasn't been around long. I would like to see a VP pick that is equal to him--but complements him where he's got gaps in his expertise.