Frank Newport on tv trying to justify his conflicting polls...

[jenmito]

He said people should look at the "registered voters" where Obama is ahead 47%-44% instead of the one getting all the attention-of "likely voters"-which has MCCAIN ahead 49%-45%. And then he said McCain's polling numbers were strong last night, and today's tracking poll will show he's now only 6 points behind Obama. I don't believe him at ALL at this point. As a matter of fact, I don't believe ANY poll that has McCain even CLOSE to Obama. Of course we shouldn't take anything for granted, but I still think Obama will do much better than the polls show.

[jefferson_dem]

1. Frank is gasping air in his effort to maintain Gallup's credibility.

He needs to make public the partisan breakdown of that shoddy USA Today / Gallup sample. How much you want to bet they oversampled repugs?

[jenmito]

3. I agree. But of course, without question, the media is happy to trumpet the poll with

McCain in the lead. :eyes:

[speedoo]

8. I'd bet the ranch they undersampled young people and minorities.

The "likely voters" polls always do that.

[DJ13]

2. Pollsters are like the hired guns in the old west

They get paid to give the desired results.

[jenmito]

5. Yup-like Rasmussen, who claims to be "independent" yet is on Faux all the time

breaking down the poll numbers and "predicting" what will happen (how McCain will close the gap) and then his poll numbers show just that.

[book_worm]

4. I think it is close. But Obama is ahead at a time when both Gore and Kerry were not

so that's what I'm looking at.

[jenmito]

6. Kerry wasn't ahead at this point? I thought his numbers started falling in August, after

the swiftboat liars started their BS.

[book_worm]

7. I believe at best he was running neck and neck with Bush.

[jefferson_dem]

9. Here's a good post from LeftCoaster that exposes the problems with Gallup's latest --

...

The answer to both questions is yes; Gallup is making some large assumptions in building its likely voter sample, assumptions that reduce the number of independents and inflate Republican numbers in that sample, in a year where we’ve been told by other pollsters that the GOP is less than enthused with McCain as their nominee and in a year where many independents will turn out. And who is around to question Gallup's assumptions? Not the media, as evidenced by the sorry Jill Lawrence story in the USAT.

Gallup Likely Voter Sample
July 25-27 USAT Poll
McCain Leads 49%-44%

Republican: 34%
Independent: 29%
Democrat: 36%

Keep in mind that no other pollster has shown McCain getting this much support. The registered voter numbers from this same poll that Gallup uses shows Obama leading by 3 points. And for comparison, take a look at the sample composition from their three-day tracking poll done at the same time:

Gallup Registered Voter Sample
July 25-27, 2008 Three-Day Tracking Poll
Republican: 29%
Independent: 33%
Democrat: 36%

In other words, Gallup is making large assumptions about who will be a likely voter, and driving those assumptions through their polls and into the media once again through many outlets. Gallup wants you to believe that if the election were held today, in the midst of McCain’s recent gaffes, that there would be a surge of GOP voters to his cause and a drop-off of independent voters. To their credit, Gallup notes that their assumptions about a “short-term energizing of the GOP base”, caused in their minds by the right-wing narrative that the media is unfair to McCain, could be only a snapshot in time, and not indicative of what will happen in November. But who besides Gallup is actually crediting this right-wing storyline of unfair media coverage with having any effect at all on a likely voter sample? Have other pollsters reached the same conclusions on this?

As I noted back in 2004, Gallup did the exact same thing with their samples to inflate the support for Bush at a time when other pollsters were not showing the same level of GOP support. However, since this was Gallup, and was being blasted around the world on CNN or USAT, it became the narrative used by the media.

Oh, and just for comparison, this is the sample composition of a Gallup poll just three weeks ago:

June 5-July 6, 2008 Poll
Republican: 21%
Independent: 38%
Democrat: 35%

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/012917.php

[jenmito]

10. Jeez. No WONDER he got those results!

Thanks for that info.! I wish the media would talk about this.

[uponit7771]

11. They oversampled and even wieghted the USA Today poll also!...My goodness

[Gabi Hayes]

12. susan page of USA Today on MSNBC now, making a very slight reference to

republican oversampling, saying that pugs are "energized" by Obama's trip, so THAT's why they oversampled, eh?

also cites the fact that Obama's numbers on whether he can be a successful CINC went down one point after the trip, so he ''failed'' to inmpress the public on that front

couldn't have anything to do with the instant 'controversy' on why he shafted the troops, huh?

[jenmito]

13. I'm watching that. She CLAIMED Repubs. were "energized" by his trip, but I don't know

why we should believe her since DEMS. were energized, too!

Exactly-the view of Obama being a CIC went DOWN after this trip? Yeah, right. I don't even believe that. Not to mention that McCain's claim that Obama chose to go to the gym and "snub the troops" was debunked yesterday, which wouldn't show up in this poll taken from the 25th-27th.