Ryan Kauffman at HuffPo sees it trending Obama 442, McLame 96. I'll have what he's smokin'.

[Faygo Kid]

On edit: Texas?!?

If he's right, I will buy him a big see-gar, cuz he's smokin' something else entirely right now.

Make no mistake: I would be happier than Jethro with a mess of Granny's hog jowls if he turns out to be right - but I don't think so. A couple examples:

Florida M 45.7% O 44.9% (27EV)
This race appears too close to call if you examine the snapshot poll. But all of the data points suggest that Obama is on his way to victory in the Sunshine State. A few months ago McCain was comfortably ahead by 6 or 7 points and now its down to a tenth of that? I believe that Florida will be close because the Republicans know they need to win it and they will put an enormous amount of resources into doing so. But the trend shows its a lost cause from both directions, McCain is falling and Obama is flying.
Prediction: Obama +2%

My comment: Anything less than Obama by 7% and the GOP steals it. Have got to factor institutionalized fraud into Florida.

Pennsylvania M 40.1% O 50.1% (21EV)
This race was close with many flips until March when Obama, well, surged. As you can see from the graph the race was never more than a couple points apart, a statistical tie, and it hovered in the low 40s. Recently though, more undecided Pennsylvanians made up their minds and a few McCain supporters switched.
Prediction: Obama + 12%

My comment: Uh, no. I see the anti-Obama, pro-Hillary phenomenon fading somewhat over time, but not disappearing entirely or reduced to "a handful," and Pennsylvania is a huge state for that. Race will play a factor in rural areas. I think Obama can win (right now), but I see that win as dependent on urban turnout and in no event by more than 4 points. Twelve is far out, man.

Texas M 43.3% O 38.9% (34EV)
In the span of about a month McCain went from about polling at about 52% to polling at 43%. Something is up in the Lone Star State and his name is Bob Barr. Ron Paul, the other libertarian king, is from Texas. Obama isn't just playing dead and waiting for McCain to blow this one, he has been creeping towards that 40% mark for some time. If Obama can get to 45% on election day Texas is his. In the Senate race we have Noriega (D) who has remained flat at around 35% running against Cornyn (R) who has been steadily falling. Cornyn moved from the low 50s to the mid 40s in the last nine months. The senate race could hinge on the apathy factor, the Latino vote, and Obama's coat tails.
Prediction: Obama +0.5%, Noriega +0.5%

My comment: Must be locoweed that he's smokin' on this one. Try some peyote next time.

Anyway, there is much good stuff to read, and a nice effort put forth. I hope he's right, and it's fun to read. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ryan-kauffman/my-blue-election-map_b_115514.html

Plus, I love the map:

[BlooInBloo]

1. Texas is the only one I see there that's actually *laughable*...

Some of the others are definitely stretches, but not to that degree.

[Faygo Kid]

2. Hah. I went back and edited the post before I saw your comment. Agreed.

That one is sure entertaining, isn't it?

Good Lord, I will bet your financial future that Texas doesn't go Dem in my lifetime, or my daughter's.

[BlooInBloo]

3. Although - 4 good years of an Obama Presidency, and that actually COULD be the map in 2012....

Dare to dream.

[PM7nj]

4. I think Texas is more realistic than Kentucky and Arkansas. nt

[BlooInBloo]

6. Oops - didn't notice KY. You're right about KY, I think, but not AR....

But yah, KY is definitely in the laughable category as well.

[Barack_America]

5. I love how he gives Obama Texas, but not Nevada or North Dakota...

Umm... :crazy: