The Daily Widget – Wednesday, July 30 – Obama 358, McCain 180 – Poll Question on Swing States

[phrigndumass]

Contents:
1. Tidbits
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources


* * * * * * *


1. TIDBITS – Poll Question on Swing States

Of the following states (listed in alphabetical order), which one do you believe is the least likely to switch to Obama this year?

Colorado
Florida
Indiana
Missouri
Montana
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

(VOTE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST)


* * * * * * *


2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


* * * * * * *


3. NEW STATE POLLS

Both candidates hold their ground today in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. These two polls show bigger samples used and smaller margins of error.


North Carolina Obama 44, McCain 47, Barr 3 (Public Policy Polling, 7/27, +/- 3.4, 823 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 49, McCain 40 (Strategic Vision, 7/26, +/- 2.8, 1200 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


* * * * * * *


4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


* * * * * * *


5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


* * * * * * *


6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


* * * * * * *


7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART








* * * * * * *


8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[tekisui]

1. I chose Indiana.

I think IN and NC will be the hardest to swing. But, living in NC, I didn't want to vote against what I think we can make happen here!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

3. Good morning, tek!

You shouldn't want to jinx your own state, lol!

I'm withholding my vote until a bunch of votes are in. I really can't decide myself, which makes it a good poll question.

:donut: :hi:

[Demeter]

2. Good Morning P-Man!

What changed? I'm having a hard time figuring out which changes are significant, and which are just Brownian motion.

[phrigndumass]

4. Strength of projection dropped since yesterday

The latest polls for Arizona and Texas are now older than 35 days old (June 25). The aging of a poll is one of the items that diminishes the strength of projection and affects my electoral vote projection.

:donut: Good morning, Demeter! :hi:

[Demeter]

7. Thanks!

I'm sure you've explained that before, but for the statistically challenged, it's a lot to keep track of. Glad you can do it!

[fight4my3sons]

5. Good morning!

lmd voted Ohio. I thought maybe Indiana.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

6. The poll results will be interesting!

There's not one state on that list that stands out for me as more unlikely than the others. I haven't decided yet :D

:donut: Good morning, f4m3s and LMD! :hi: :hi:

[phrigndumass]

8. Off to work kick

Enjoy your day, and vote! :D

(There's a point to make about the poll)

[Lilith Velkor]

9. Keep your eye on Florida

There's a high probability of shenanigans, as always.

I get the feeling Virginia will definitely go blue this year.

[phrigndumass]

14. I love your last line :)

Who could have predicted our chances in Virginia a year ago at this time? Not me! :D

:hi:

[Lilith Velkor]

19. I could

Virginia has a lot of disgruntled military families.

[grantcart]

10. kick

[grantcart]

11. great idea for a poll

I went with Indiana because I believe the pollsters are under value the GOTV of the 30% AA population.

if you start with 30% then you only need 30% of the remaining 70% to win. Seems doable.

[phrigndumass]

16. 30% of the remaining 70% :)

I really liked your 75% of 70% post. Obama's lead is fragile! It was a great word-picture.

And your reply above presents another great word-picture about Indiana. A year ago, I would have never predicted a close race in Indiana.

[grantcart]

26. No I went with Indiana as being the harder to flip

Even though NC is more conservative, I think that the AA population in NC is under polled.


In NC if you start with 30% AA vote then with the remaining 70% of the non AA population you only need 30% to get to 51%


I think the big 'secret of this campaign is that the the Obama is registering voters and especially AA voters in high numbers so I believe the biggest disparity between polls and results will be in the Southern States.


I still feel that Kaine will help Catholics in OH/IN and PA so I think he will flip them all.


But then again I am always wrong in the end.


The 75/70 post goes into areas we are not supposed to talk about - thinking strategically about political issues. Some issues like don't ask and don't tell are national in definition and winnable by nature (increasing numbers in our military) - Some issues like same sex marriage is better handled at the state level because it is a local issue and people don't like the federal government telling them how they should run state issues. Also if the ammendment is defeated in CA then it will quickly effect and spread to other states. NY has already said that they will honor CA marriages and if that is true then why make them go to CA and so on.

There is a Kamikaze element to some progressives that if you are popular and win then there must be something wrong, you aren't progressive enough.

This time winning is the only option.

[phrigndumass]

34. Got it! :)

Strategizing with the issues is always difficult (tricky?), but always important. Winning really is the only option for us this year.

* * * *

But, handling marriage equality in pieces and parts will create an unimaginable mess. There are so many aspects of legal marriage that are taken for granted, such as inheritance, taxes, health decisions, even divorce.

Did you know that, although we will be able to marry in California or Massachusetts no matter where we live, we will need to actually live in one of those states to obtain a divorce (if it ever comes to that)? No other state will recognize the marriage or the divorce, but neither California nor Massachusetts will recognize the divorce unless we live there.

I believe handling the marriage equality issue state by state could create a very divided society for at least a generation, yet it may be necessary to walk that path. But unless it is recognized at the federal level as well, federal laws regarding taxes, etc., won't apply to us.

* * * *

This being said, I don't believe we should be one-issue voters. I firmly believe an Obama presidency will advance the causes of all people, including the GLBT community. Work on the whole, and all parts of the whole will benefit. The only way for that to happen is to help elect Obama, and I'm willing to put my issues on a back burner during the election season (for strategy purposes) to accomplish that.

[grantcart]

35. My understanding is New York has said that it will treat CA marriages as their own

I think that there are a group of Gay legal activists who believe that it will be a mess and that is how it will be attacked.

If we wait for a 'global solution' then it will take forever.


The theory, as I understand it, is to get a sizeable number of legally married couples through out the states and then start suiing in multiple locations until the cost and trouble of litigation forces more and more 'moderate' states to accept the inevitable.

A year from now with 50,000 (?) legal California marriages the whole climate in the country will change.

Also if "don't ask don't tell" is changed and that transition is completed people in more conservative areas will be more used to the idea.

A few years ago California did not pass same sex marriage and now it is widely accepted. I think that what makes it easier for people to accept it is when it moves from an abstract idea to a real person. Ellen Degeneres has had more impact than anybody because everyone likes her and can see it from her point of view. If there are couples that get legally married and are living in their neighborhood it will let people see that it is no big deal.

In San Diego, a fairly conservative city, Mayor Sanders, a nominal Republican (a non partisan type of guy) came out for the ammendment. A couple of days later he had a news conference to say that one of his children was gay and he was standing up for her . He openly wept

Here is the youtube of it http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SnTwrnKb61Q

In the end that is how it will fall apart. People like Cheney's daughter will get legally married and the conservatives will 'rediscover' that part of Goldwater that was for civil rights for gays, including serving in the military.

That's my opinion but I could be wrong. I just think that leading with gay marriage into a national election will actually be counterproductive. Such an opinion published in GDP will instantly be categorized as homophobe and anti-gay.

BTW I think that it is most unfortunate that it has been framed as a 'gay' issue and not a civil rights issue. If we were talking about approaching the question solely from a civil rights POV it would speed it up by years.

Its interesting but in CA I have not heard a single voice for the ammendment. I thought that the fundamentalist Churches or somebody would have been saying something by now, actually I think Sanders statement which was widely covered here had a big impact

[grantcart]

12. For your consideration and comment

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=132

[phrigndumass]

17. Is your link broken?

It took me to the GDP main page.

:hi:

[grantcart]

25. all fixed

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6561734

[phrigndumass]

29. Interesting graph about including third party candidates in the poll question

They should definitely be included in a poll question since their names will be on the ballot, and I would guess their numbers would be as accurate as Obama's and McCain's at this point.

In the CNN poll, Nader, Barr and McKinney are polling at 10% together (6%, 3% and 1% respectively). That seems a little bloated to me, but then again it's hard to tell at this point. It seems that Candidate Naderbarr could rival Perot's 1996 numbers.

[grantcart]

31. 10% would be high if it reflected real interest in those candidates

I think it reveals a lot of "won't vote McCain and not ready to vote Obama".


It would also make sense that 50% of Nader's 6% are PUMA types who are still stomping their feet until Hillary gets more respect and love and then will join on Nov 4th.

Actually I think it is very accurate but doesn't really represent true intentions for Nader.

[AlinPA]

13. Hi phrigndumass, when I am feeling down about all the negative things that

the media are throwing at Obama, I look for your post, hoping it shows a better picture than what I am worried about. It does. This is real data arranged to provide real information. Thank you for your hard work.

[phrigndumass]

20. Thanks AlinPA :)

:blush:

The media bias is mind-numbing this year, isn't it? When the media horde follows our candidate overseas for the expressed primary purpose of catching him in a gaffe, we can expect more of the same from them this year.

Since they couldn't catch him doing anything wrong, they label him as "presumptuous" :crazy:

:hi:

[grantcart]

28. when your feeling down

start with this

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qqM9eQasvg

If that doesn't work try this

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5fwJEWLUv8&feature=related

The first is Kootenai County a very conservative area that has less than .2% AA.

The National Socialist Party moved there thinking that they would be welcomed by the rural folks. They weren't.

Some Black protestors were peacefully protesting outside and they came out of their compound and beat them up.

Lawyers from the Southern Poverty Center helped them sue and the locals on the jury added a 0 to whatever they were asking and the protesters ended up with the compound.

If those two videos don't help time for a beer!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

15. k&r Thanks !

[phrigndumass]

21. Thanks, Mrs. Dumbass!

:hi:

[grantcart]

32. ok I missed something - why do you call her Mrs. Dumbass?

[livetohike]

18. Thanks so much for posting this daily

I really appreciate it :hi:.

[phrigndumass]

22. yw livetohike :)

Thanks! :hi:

[Awsi Dooger]

23. I'm impressed with the voting so far

I debated between Indiana and North Carolina. Those two don't qualify as swing states. We'd have an outside chance at Indiana with Bayh at VP.

Montana and Missouri are next in terms of least likely.

[phrigndumass]

24. That's a very good opinion, I definitely wouldn't disagree :)

Even Bill Clinton couldn't manage to win in Indiana or North Carolina.

:hi:

[Alexander]

27. I voted Florida, because of the obvious election stealing that still goes on there.

I'd love to win Florida but until they get some clean elections down there, Obama would be better off concentrating on other states.

I don't think we'll win Missouri or North Carolina either, but there's at least a chance in those states.

[grantcart]

30. my first and probably last 'math' thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6559785

[phrigndumass]

33. LOL!

You can't argue with that math! :thumbsup: