7 worrisome signs for Obama

[Gman]

From Politico...

A few weeks back, Time magazine was musing that John McCain was in danger of sliding from “a long shot” to a “no-shot.” Around the same time, a hard-nosed former Hillary Clinton insider declared the race “effectively over” thanks to the McCain campaign’s ineptitude, the tanking U.S. economy and Obama’s advantages in cash, charisma and hope. And Obama, up by three to six points nationally, was about to leverage a much-anticipated trip to Iraq, Afghanistan and Europe into a pre-convention poll surge.

Instead, his supporters are now suffering a pre-Denver panic attack, watching as John McCain draws incrementally closer in state and national polls – with Rasmussen’s most recent daily national tracker showing a statistical dead heat.
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1. Race. “The idea that Obama was going to win in a blowout was always preposterous,” says former Nebraska senator and onetime presidential hopeful Bob Kerrey, an Obama backer. “A big piece of this, of course, is whether white people are going to support a black guy… If is a tall, skinny white guy named Paul Jones it's a different story.”

2. Obama’s strength in Virginia may be overhyped. His chances of ending the Democrats 44-year losing streak in the commonwealth are pretty good – thanks to the explosive growth of the liberal D.C. suburbs, and a 147,000 spike in voter registration sure to benefit Democrats. But Obama’s aides privately concede his odds in Virginia are probably no better than 50-50 and that the state is far from a lock-solid hedge if he loses Ohio and Florida.

3. Michigan’s in play for McCain. In the year of the downturn, the hard-hit upper Midwest should be prime Obama country. Instead it’s a potential minefield. Obama is still ahead by two to five points here – similar to margins of victory enjoyed by Gore and Kerry in the last two presidential contests– but McCain has quietly crept up over the past month and could vault ahead if he anoints ex-Gov. Mitt Romney. Simmering tensions between predominantly-black Detroit and its white suburbs could hurt Obama. And McCain’s surrogates were handed a gift in the jailing of Obama supporter Kwame Kilpatrick, Detroit’s mayor.
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http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12433.html

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I wish so many people here would quit celebrating an Obama victory. This thing is far from over and there is a very real chance Obama will lose. If anything, this article points out how hard the road ahead will be and how hard the work will be to get Obama elected.

[zanne]

1. Thanks for the morning cheer. nt

[Gman]

11. There should be no cheer until after the election

hopefully.

[high density]

2. Obama's campaign has got him this far

I have much more faith in them than Kerry's group of people. It's still August.

[PurityOfEssence]

28. Guderian could see the Kremlin from the ground

The Germans could see the Eiffel Tower in 1914.

Napoleon actually took Moscow.

How big was Dukakis' lead?

God himself can't sink this ship.

I'm not a fan and I have serious doubts; people should pay attention to this kind of stuff and act accordingly. There's far too much submissive "hope" in this campaign, and putting ourselves in the hands of the wise and faultless campaign is not necessarily that bright; we need to speak out when we think they're on the wrong track and act as if it's the uncertain thing that it actually is.

[DU9598]

3. How many worrisome signs for McCain?

Perhaps several hundred? Please - win the Kerry states plus Iowa and Indiana and its over. Obama is already up +9 in Iowa. Read the lead story today in the DSM Register about the D's picking up almost 100,000 voters since 2004 compared to the R's.

[book_worm]

4. When given the chance to post something demoralizing about McCain or Obama

I'm never surprised that certain DUERS decide to bring down Obama.

[Frances]

5. Ex-Governor Mitt Romney

might help in Michigan, but he would hurt in North Carolina and Virginia and Florida because of his Mormon religion. But his Mormon religion would help in Nevada.

[book_worm]

8. I would say that Romney being able to deliver MI is over-hyped in the same manner

the writer says VA is over-hyped for Obama, except that I think Obama has a better shot at VA than a McCain/Romney ticket would have for MI.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

12. His father was the Michigan governor.

[bluerum]

21. mItts stand in, Kerry Healey (a white blond woman) lost to Deval Patrick (a scary black man)

for the MA governors race. There are black elected officials all over the country. Obama was elected as one of Illinois two senators.

I don't think race is as much of factor as some people are making it out to be. Of course, continually playing the race card to those who have racist inclinations is part of the GOP strategy. Make sure they know and make sure that they don't forget.

That said, I agree this thing is far from being in the bag.


on edit: OOps - meant to respond to the op.

[nerddem]

6. i actually missed the "from politico..." at the top, otherwise

i wouldn't have even bothered to read a word of it.

but just quickly scrolling down, yes virginia will be tight, we've known that all along, look how tight it was between allen and webb, so that's no surprise nor need to panic. obama can win while losing virginia by the three pick ups he's been doing well in the whole cycle, iowa, col, and nm.

mccain won't win michigan. he just won't.

do yourself a favor and stop reading politico. or don't, i don't know, it's your call. i have no problem admitting i specifically avoid right wing "news" outlets

[eshfemme]

7. What I find more worrisome is just how much more fucked up the country will be

because you just know Bush is trying his goddamn best to be a spoiler by trying to fuck things up to the point of no return. Just look at the recent Georgia-Russia debacle, which seems to have been instigated by the incompetence of Bush-style diplomacy (i.e. egging people on to go to war) or the fucking China issue where the US doesn't even have the moral platform to rebuke China on its human rights violation when in many respects Bushco has taken their advice and lead with crap like waterboarding.

That's what I'm more worried about. I don't put it past the Republicans to deliberately fuck things up to the point where people are scared and terrified into voting for the warmongering party.

[Alter Ego]

9. Thanks for your input.

:puke:

For chrissakes, no one ever said it would be easy--but can we get a LITTLE confident before the Chicken Little brigade comes in and starts shrieking about the sky falling?

[Gman]

14. No confidence is allowed

confidence leads to complacency. Complacency leads to disaster.

[Alter Ego]

20. Fear is the path to the dark side.

Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate...leads to suffering.

We're not Jedi, dammit.

We're allowed to feel good about Obama's chances while working our butts off for him.

[blogslut]

10. You lost me at "From Politico..."

n/t

[RayOfHope]

13. Which is why the Obama campaign is opening an unprecedented number of field offices

His grassroots campaign is HUGE.

[Gman]

15. and that's one of the many good things

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

16. no, it's not wrapped up yet. but I'd rather be up 140EVs right now than down 140EVs.

[Eurobabe]

17. Phuck Politico

Right wing hacks. :eyes:

[NYCGirl]

18. You lost me at anyone taking that horrible quote from Bob Kerrey seriously. NT

[JTFrog]

19. Worry never robs tomorrow of its sorrow, it only saps today of its joy.

They say the reason that more people die from worry, is because more people worry than work.

Those who actually volunteer and get involved and work with the campaign will find it hard to jump on the worry train.

[Enrique]

22. it's far from over, but ignore Politico

an anylisis like this from Politico is not a source of information, it is a weapon against Obama.

[Frustratedlady]

23. Obama could be perfect, but lose because of the Rove/Diebold tricks

They are too relaxed about this election. We can't let our guard down.

[Zynx]

24. #5 on that list is completely false. Polling showed time and again Clinton would have won without

Perot. Never forget a huge part of the Perot vote would either have not voted at all or would have voted for Clinton as an anti-incumbent vote.

[DainBramaged]

25. It's wonderful to see so many McSenile supporters on DU, really

why don't you go find a hole you can jump into.

[Sulawesi]

26. It is this article, for the first time, that has me thinking Clinton...

actually wants Obama to lose. Look at where all the negatives come from...

"Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton has been privately enumerating her doubts about Obama to supporters, according to people who have spoken with her."

"Clinton’s pollster Mark Penn recently unveiled a PowerPoint presentation red-flagging Obama’s lukewarm leads among white female voters and Hispanics – while predicting a five-point swing could turn a presumed Obama win into a McCain landslide."

"“The idea that Obama was going to win in a blowout was always preposterous,” says former Nebraska senator and onetime presidential hopeful Bob Kerrey, an Obama backer." Bob Kerrey, an Obama backer? Is this Senator of "Hussein" fame from the primaries?

"“Obama wins on the economy,” said Guy Cecil, Hillary Clinton’s field director during the primaries. “But it will be interesting to see if McCain’s able to close the economic gap.”"

"Adds Bob Kerrey: “The country's still pretty divided … people may want a divided government. They want change, but I'm not sure that the Democratic agenda has the support of a majority of Americans.”"

I am not a Clinton hater, or a conspiracy theorist, but jeez!

[Phoonzang]

27. Hey stop raining reality on the victory party!

:hide: