How Far Do You Think this Russo-Georgia Conflict Will Go?

[Bullet1987]

Thanks to the Olympics, we can't hear a whole lot about what's going on over there. There seems to be a general belief that Russia wants to re-establish the Soviet Union. If that's true, there isn't shit we can do about it. Russia is operating it seems in a time of utmost opportunity. America is bogged down in two wars and can't do anything really except talk. None of the other nations aren't going to do anything either...so it seems Russia can basically do whatever they want without much resistence. And Georgia is not going to offer up much of a fight anyway.

How far will this go? Is Russia finally moving their pieces and setting the stage for a major foreign policy problem for the next President? Or will this end soon? More importantly, when will the MSM begin to frame the conflict against Obama? Because we all know Republicans are foreign policy wizards right...there's no conflict they can't solve :sarcasm:

[amandabeech]

1. I don't know, but I'd sure like to know what Joe Biden thinks. n/t

[David Dunham]

2. See my GD post below.

[Bullet1987]

5. What post below?

[Occam Bandage]

3. I know jack shit, but I think Russia will take effective control of the breakaway provinces,

then sit back, let the global tension cool a bit, and start working on its next move. Everyone wants to plan ten steps ahead, of course, but with the chaotic nature of geopolitics, nobody's plans are worth anything beyond the very next step.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

4. Installation of a pro-Russian Georgian government?

[tekisui]

7. I think that is likely.

Definitely a new one anyway.

[tekisui]

6. The Geogian government will fall.

The provinces will be swallowed into Russia, and that is the best case scenario.

If Georgia tries to wait out or challenge Russia things could get bad, unpredictable.

[David Dunham]

8. This is my opinion from my post below

From talking with knowledgable Georgians in Tbilisi today and in the US, I believe I have a pretty good understanding of what has really happened. The Russians got the separatists in South Ossetia to fire missiles at Georgian villages bordering South Ossetia. Saakashvili responded by ordering his troops into South Ossetia. This gave the Russians the excuse they wanted to invade Georgia. The Russians lied to the world in saying that they were only going to secure the two breakaway provinces. They really intended from the first to depose the pro-Western Georgian democratic government.

In response to the Russian invasion, Bush and Western European leaders made a decision that they were not willing to station any troops in southern Georgia to try to deter the Russians from going to the capital, Tbilisi, to change the government. Bush's statement today condemning the Russian invasion of Georgian proper is really only a bunch of words. Bush will do nothing about the situation -- no threat of sanctions on Russia or anything else.

The Russians are now going to send their troops into the capital and install a pro-Russian puppet as head of the country, who is a former Georgian KGB chief and was a big time Communist. He already has been moved by the Russians into Abkazia, the other breakaway province. He will be brought to Tbilisi once the Russian army takes control of the city.

The Russians are now telling the Georgians in Tbilisi that the Russians do not intend to attack civilians as they enter the city. They are going their to put their new puppet in charge and to depose the democratic government.

The democratic government has called for a massive public anti-Russian demonstration in the biggest open square in Tbilisi on Tuesday. However, it appears certain that the Russian army will take over the city. The supporters of the current government will hopefully not engage in street to street fighting with the Russians, which could lead to a fight that would cause severe damage to the city of 1 million people.

In short, Putin will successfully pull off his regime change. However, because Georgians 40 and younger are pro-Western (hundreds have gone to US universities on Muskie Fellowships) and are likely not to be happy with the new government, that government will only be able to be maintained by the continuous presence of Russian troops in Georgia. I suspect that the next time there is political instability in Russia the younger Georgians will overthrow the puppet leader now being installed by the Russians.

[Bullet1987]

9. Nice write-up.

Let's just hope things don't get any worse.

[cbc5g]

10. Isn't this a bit ironic?

Bush...Today

"Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state.... Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century.... We have no doubts about it. This is a deliberate attempt to destroy an entire country and change the regime."

[FrenchieCat]

11. Yes, very ironic.

transparently so to those with even only 1/2 a brain.