Gallup: Obama/Biden 48% (-1), McCain/Palin 42% (+1)

[malik flavors]

Though down slightly from the eight-point lead Obama held mid-convention, this represents a clear improvement for the Democratic candidate's positioning in the campaign compared to a week ago when the race was about tied. The last Gallup update conducted entirely before Obama's convention and vice presidential announcement was based on interviews conducted Aug. 20-22, and showed Obama up by two points, 46% to 44%. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008 click here.)

As the recent trend shows, Obama did not gain any additional support in the poll since his generally well-reviewed acceptance speech on Thursday night. However, the Aug. 28-30 field period also includes two days of interviewing since the Friday morning announcement by McCain that he has chosen Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to join him on the Republican ticket. Thus, it is unclear whether the full positive impact on national voters of the Democratic convention or Obama's speech would have been greater if not for the Palin announcement.

As Gallup has noted in recent weeks, both the vice presidential selections and the national conventions have historically produced small bumps in support for the presidential candidates associated with those events (on the order of about five percentage points for each). However, this year, Obama's announcement of Joe Biden as his running mate produced no immediate increase in support for Obama in a one-night USA Today/Gallup reaction poll.

Given that the immediate reaction by national voters to Palin was very similar to their first reaction to Biden -- mildly positive but also with a high degree of uncertainty about each -- it may not be surprising if the publicity surrounding her announcement also does not produce an immediate bounce in support for McCain.

The mounting news coverage over the past 48 hours of the impending landfall of Hurricane Gustav on the Gulf Coast introduces still another variable into the mix of factors possibly affecting voter reaction to the recent campaign events.

Monday's Gallup Poll Daily tracking report will be the first three-day rolling average based entirely on interviews conducted after the Democratic National Convention, as well as after the announcement of Palin as McCain's choice for vice president. -- Lydia Saad

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109903/Gallup-Daily-ObamaBiden-Ticket-Leads-Points.aspx

[book_worm]

1. A week from now it will probably be tied and we're back where we were before the conventions

In the end Obama will win, the debates will be critical. Palin is being given a pass by the media or else this nomination would be much more damaging.

[Eric J in MN]

6. Bush and Cheney and Arnold Schwarzenegger won't be at the Convention.

If the Republicans are going to catch up this week, they will need to rely on the persuasive powers of John McCain and Sarah Palin and Joe Lieberman.

I'm not saying the latter 3 aren't persuasive at all, but I hope Obama is still in the lead a week from now.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. It appears the impact of Palin, at least right now, will be minimal.

Which is what I wanted. I think McCain did this solely to shake the race right now, because he knew things would change dramatically once people saw who Palin really was. The fact he's only gained +2 since the choice shows me not many Americans are going to move over to him in droves.

And if I'm not mistaken, didn't Obama's best night of the campaign, when he bumped his lead from one to six, just drop off? So if that's the case, he's still winning the DAILY polls.

[malik flavors]

4. I look forward to seeing some state polling in the near future.

I'll be interested to see how the Palin choice plays in some of the key swing states.

[pot luck]

3. Does anyone remember the individual daily numbers

that someone posted yesterday? His numbers must have been high on day three to have a six point lead over McCain in the average.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. That's exactly what I'm thinking.

Because Obama killed McCain on the day he bumped his lead up from 1 to 6 in a single day. That bump was four days ago now, which means it rolled off the daily tracking poll and since his lead didn't decrease beyond just two points likely means he won Saturday. That would be huge if true, because Obama generally doesn't do as well on Saturday and the news has been dominated by Palin.

[pot luck]

7. Okay, found the numbers.

August 20 (W): O 45 M 43
August 21 (T): O 45 M 44
August 22 (F): O 45 M 45
August 23 (S): O 45 M 46
August 24 (S): O 45 M 44
August 25 (M): O 42 M 48
August 26 (T): O 48 M 40 (post-Michelle)
August 27 (W): O 54 M 38 (post-Hillary)
August 28 (T): O 45 M 45 (post-Bill/Biden and nomination)
August 29 (F): O 48 M 40 (CORRECTED) (post-acceptance speech/Palin announcement)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6842890

That would mean that Saturday's numbers were 51-42 (someone double check me). So, O/B gained points even after Palin was announced.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. That's huge if true.

Like I said above, generally Obama does not poll well on Saturday (see how he was behind McCain on Aug. 23rd?) and if he polled better than McCain both Friday and Saturday, two days dominated by the Palin announcement, he's in good position.

Obviously McCain could poll better on Sunday and wipe that away, but I'm skeptical. If there is no bounce in the first 48 hours, it's hard to imagine why there would be on in the next 48 hours.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. Also, if these numbers are true, tomorrow the 45-45 will fall off the rolling average.

Which means it's very likely Obama either continues to lead Monday or gains more support.

[malik flavors]

11. thanks for those numbers, i'd be really pleased to see Obama's numbers rise tomorrow.

[pot luck]

12. You're welcome.

If he can sustain 51 for Sunday, then he will finally crack 50 in the rolling average. It'll be interesting to see what if any bump McCain gets from the his convention.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Or what the media will say if Obama actually does build a 10-point lead.

After all the buzz they've received the past two days.

[pot luck]

14. "Why didn't he get a larger bounce. . .

this is a problem for him."

They will never acknowledge that Obama is doing well.

[jillan]

8. What I keep hoping for is for Obama to hit 50 and stay there.