So, as Gustav turns out to be a run-of-the-mill major hurricane...

[blitzen]

does McCain lose points for his erractic overreaction?

And before you flame me for lulling people into a false sense of security: I'm sitting here in Baton Rouge, so kindly back off, please.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

1. I was wondering the same thing, and I'm not sure.

I think McKeating5 did the right thing for tommorrow. It wouldn't be too cool for him if it was business as usual at the RNC as NO flooded. So I'd guess it doesn't hurt or help.

Keep safe!

[blitzen]

5. yeah, that's probably about right. And thanks for the well wishes....

We should be okay--but you never know about falling trees and stuff. It's pretty clear that it won't be a big water event, though--except in Houma and Morgan City.

[totodeinhere]

2. Shoot, it hasn't even made landfall yet. I wouldn't underestimate if I were you.

They are saying that it could still have a very strong storm surge although the wind speeds have gone down a bit.

[Cleita]

3. You are upset that it's run of the mill?

Many of us have been praying that it turns into a tropical storm so that people don't die this time. I'm quite happy McCain and Shrubby and "them all" have erred on the side of caution unlike their last reaction to Katrina which was to ignore it because it "might be overreaction".

[blitzen]

6. Didn't say that. In fact I suggested that I'm glad it's not going to be a disaster...

(glad, for obvious reasons), and I implied that I was upset at the GOP for politicizing the weather.

By the way, you ignored my wish not to be flamed.

[Cleita]

8. Wow,

you must know a lot about flaming. I would have never thought that asking you to be honest was flaming.

[Captain Hilts]

4. It's back up to Cat 3. nt

[Emit]

7. I have family in NO that evacuated to Baton Rouge

what are y'all expecting down there? My mother was concerned and we were looking on line for info -- showed her the maps, etc. but thought I'd ask to get a first hand account. Other family members went on up to Arkansas -- we have family there, too.

[blitzen]

11. In most of Baton Rouge, there is little chance of major flooding...

High winds and possible tornadoes will cause random damage. But it certainly won't be a widespread disaster here. If your family is in a good structure and not in a floodplain, they are extremely likely to be just fine. We have experienced Andrew, Katrina, and Rita here. Lots of fallen trees, power out (up to a week during Andrew), but very few casualities.

[Emit]

20. Thanks, that's pretty much what we expected -- not that that's *good* news

so to speak. My cousin's daughter is there with two little kids at her in-laws -- I'm sure they'll take good care of her.

My thoughts are with you and yours

[PBS Poll-435]

9. Hmm...Wait about six hours before you down-play Gustav

It is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Should be done in a couple of hours. After that it will rapidly strengthen.

[yourguide]

14. it's replacing that eyewall a bit faster than expected

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GULF&isingle=mult_big&itype=ir

[blitzen]

17. It's the storm surge that would be worrisome...But they're not predicting much more

than 6 ft in NO and maybe 14 max in Houma-Morgan City. There will be some nasty stuff in the latter area, but no way will it be a castrophe like Katrina.

[yourguide]

18. yeah but you're forgetting the 10 foot waves...

[blitzen]

23. A lot of marshy wetland before you get to any population...

Waves would be a factor if there were any "shore," in the classic sense, in Louisiana (Grand Isle being one of the only populated exceptions). The Mississipi shore, with its beaches, got annihilated by the combo of surge and waves in Katrina.

[yourguide]

26. I think you might be surprised. It will be on the NE quadrant

40% of the pumps are failing, and the levees on the west bank are expected to fail. I would expect to see some flooding. Hope I'm wrong, if the eye moves further west it will be better but if it stays on course...

Houma will be hit hard.

[blitzen]

30. Would the west bank levees fail with a 6 foot surge?

I read somewhere that they could handle 8 feet. And so far tonight it seems like 6 is the max number being bandied about by the NHC.

[yourguide]

31. Seems borderline, there was an article a couple of days ago...

“Lafitte, Grand Isle and the east side of the Harvey Canal are our most vulnerable areas, but nowhere in the West Bank should be considered a protected area in a Category 3 or greater storm,” said Deano Banano, director Jefferson Parish Emergency Preparedness.


http://www.wwltv.com/topstories/stories/wwl082808mlwestbank.204cd2f0.html

[PBS Poll-435]

22. Yep. I would be shocked it it isn't a very high 3, low 4 at the 1AM update.

[yourguide]

32. I think it stays cat 3

but we'll see in the morning...

[Hissyspit]

10. What in the world is a run-of-the-mill major hurricane?

People thought Katrina was turning out not to be too bad, but then...

Anyway, here is something from Frank Luntz and the Rethug spin. Take it with a big grain of salt:

Politico Playbook: McCain camp watches CNN, not Fox; Pollster says folks want convention to go on
Mike Allen
Politico
Article Last Updated: 08/31/2008 09:43:13 PM CDT

Frank Luntz, a pollster and message consultant, rounded up 25 independent voters from the Twin Cities area for a focus group conducted behind one-way mirrors, within a baseball's throw of the Mall of America. Luntz wasn't surprised that, reflecting the mood of the nation, the participants were "very depressed and sad."

But what did blow him away about the research, conducted for AARP, was his discovery that not one of the voters — "the salt of the earth," he called them — thought the convention should be cut short. "They believe that you need to respect the suffering of others, and seek to help them," Luntz said, "but we are a democracy, and the convention should continue."

Fallout: Although it's a little morbid to think about, Republican officials say their radically curtailed convention offers a political opportunity for John McCain to show leadership and step out of President Bush's shadow once and for all. "You don't wish for it, but it shows McCain dealing with a surprise — a big event that has consequences on people," a convention planner said. "It's redemption for the Republican Party on the competence issue. The convention ends up being about John McCain showing the best way to serve a cause greater than yourself."

[blitzen]

13. interesting that even a Luntz focus group would give this result....It's a

good sign than the electorate is less easily manipulated than we might fear.

[FVZA_Colonel]

15. I had no doubt they'd try to manipulate it.

Now we have to wait and see how successful things will be.

[Bluenorthwest]

12. McCain's reaction is already erractic...

compared to his pre Katrina cake walk. Same goes for the whole of the GOP. During Katrina they were all off fund raising and shoe shopping. Sturmming the git-fiddle. Now, my lord they can not even meet in public, the storm is so important.
Remember how it was all the fault of Nagin and Landreau not sending the right papers? Rembemer all the crap said by Rush and the rest of that creepy party? Remember Brownie?
From utter contempt and neglect to human suffering after Katrina to this 'clear the decks' routine they are playing now is very erratic. Bi-polar actually. Insane even.

[juajen]

27. I believe you mean Kathleen Babineaux Blanco, not Mary Landreau.

Yes, Kathleen was much maligned by the pugs, and lost reelection because of it. She was a wonderful democrat from my fair city.

[Bluenorthwest]

35. Yes I meant Blanco

The first and middle names I never knew, to be honest. And her being maligned was terrible but not my point. My point was that they did nothing last time, and in fact blamed everyone who did anything at all. This time they can not even convene, last time they went about business as usual while people drowned. That in itself is erratic. Even if Gustav is 'normal' or whatever odd word you used.
And gee, can you name the Gov of my state w/o Google? Even with out his middle name? I doubt it. How about our previous govenor?

[Erin Elizabeth]

16. I *totally* don't blame people in the area

for evacuating, taking whatever measures they need to and can.

But yeah, it's going to look kind of silly that the president, Vice President, and presumptive nominee decided to go to Texas to monitor things and skip their own convention.

Also, I heard Ah-nold is skipping the convention, too. Lord, that's going to look more like a funeral in Minnesota!

[blitzen]

21. yes, I share your view. The evacuation was definitely the right thing....

(and lots of folks in the South Louisiana coastal areas literally were saved by leaving), but the GOP's obsession with this storm has been pathological.

[Erin Elizabeth]

24. Have you been hearing about these guys on the shrimp boats

who refuse to leave their boats?

Damn. That's just a death wish. They're saying only about 5% of the NO population is staying. That's at least better than last time, by a lot!

Stay safe!

[blitzen]

28. Yes, I heard something about it. There always seems to be a few

stubborn (or very misguided) ones. The hurricane prof guy from LSU was on CNN a bit earlier, predicting 100 deaths--people who refused to leave the coastal wetland areas. He tends to exaggerate somewhat--let's hope that's the case this time.

[TheDonkey]

19. hopefully it'll drop down to cat 2 or cat 1

[Junkdrawer]

25. This last pic is not good...

[PBS Poll-435]

29. Ooooooohhh.... You hot-linked from the government.

I'm telling!!!


:rofl:

And yes, it does not look good. The eyewall is becoming more symmetrical. AKA, higher wind potential.

[Ilsa]

33. Second major run-of-the-mill hurricane in three years. yikes. Climate change, anyone? nt

[PBS Poll-435]

34. Then there was Rita, Wilma, Emily

All fives at one point or another...