Bush is toast.

[MikeG]

The election is always about the incumbent.

The approval rating is under 50 and will never go above it.

The right track-wrong track numbers are 20 points apart in our favor.

Right after the convention the job figures will show a loss if jobs.

Kerry doesn't have to do anything but run out the clock.

[DaveSZ]

1. Can you post a link to his approval numbers?

edit:

Job Approval:

Approve: 48.0% up 0.6% from 47.4%

* Approve: 46% CBS News 08/18/04
* Approve: 51% Gallup 08/11/04
* Approve: 46% Pew 08/10/04
* Approve: 47% Democracy Corps 08/05/04
* Approve: 50% Time 08/05/04


Right Track / Wrong Direction:

Pos: 40.7% - Neg: 55.0% margin unchanged at -14.3%

* Right Track: 39% - Wrong Track: 55%
CBS News 08/18/04
* Right Track: 44% - Wrong Track: 55%
Gallup 08/11/04
* Right Track: 39% - Wrong Track: 55%
Democracy Corps 08/05/0

[MikeG]

3. Zogby has it at 47. They have always been the most accurate.

[Suzi Creamcheese]

2. I wish everyone shared your optimism

seems kind of rose colored glasses to me, especially after Bush started running those Swift Boat ads. That's all anyone talks about any more

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

4. I agree

guys, think about this: his daddy's numbers were HIGHER than his before Clinton beat him in 92.

Was bush the first as despised as this bush? Not by a long shot. And he was stomped in 92. And remember Clinton was dealing with smears right and left..."Slick Willie", draft-dodger (Seems you can't win with the GOP militarily...), accusations of womanizing surfacing even then, etc.

And bush the first still lost. With higher numbers than this bush has, and with a war that ended quickly.

Just let that soak in. An election year with an incumbent is ALWAYS a mandate on the incumbent. And the mandate doesn't look good for boosh.

[Julien Sorel]

5. It all hinges on the jobs report IMO.

If Bush comes out of his convention promising sweetness and light, and the jobs report is disappointing, it will be like a giant kick straight in the balls.

[Cronus Protagonist]

6. Yeah, right.

The media will bury Kerry if we don't fight. What you said raises expectations of Kerry and lowers them of Bush.

Ask yourself these three questions:

1/ Lowering expectations of Bush and raising them for Kerry helps who?
2/ What does Karl Rove want you to do so that Bush wins?
3/ Why are you doing what Karl Rove wants you to do?


Swiftboat Veterans for Bush - TRUTH!!!

Lick Laura's Bush - Drop Bush Not Bombs! - FUCK BUSH
http://brainbuttons.com/home.asp?stashid=13

[MikeG]

9. Lowering expectations of Kerry demoralizes our base.

The Republicans never seem to lack confidence, even when the polls are shit for them.

We don't need any more negativity.

[Cronus Protagonist]

15. OK, and why lower expectations for Bush?

That doesn't help anyone on our side. And setting expectations that are high when the corporate media controls almost everything people see, read or hear is just playing into their hands.

This election is about Bush being booted. President Kerry being elected is just frosting the cake.

It's also foolish to underestimate Bush. Very foolish. It plays right into his modus operandi. People who do that will have "misunderestimated me", to put it in Bush's own words. History shows that swaggering over Bush's ineptitude is a recipe for failure.

History also shows that being overly optimistic about a candidate's chances creates slacking off on our side, a groundswell of people rooting for the underdog, and it courts disaster.

I think we agree, since I'm not bringing in any negativity, or promoting it. I want our side to win. As, no doubt, you do too. And we need to have frank discussions about these things anyway.

Swiftboat Veterans for Bush - TRUTH!!!

Lick Laura's Bush - Drop Bush Not Bombs! - FUCK BUSH
http://brainbuttons.com/home.asp?stashid=13

[NightOwwl]

7. Here's some really good news on the electoral college tallies.

Zogby Poll (8/23/04)

Kerry - 286
Bush - 214

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=853

[MikeG]

8. I read an article today that said right track-wrong track

was 20 pts apart. I stand corrected.

However this is the apex of Bush's approval.

It will sink from now.

[autorank]

10. Finally! Somebody from Pittsburg Gets It Right!

I totally agree, but I do think Mr. Rooney made major payoffs in the '70's to beat the Raiders.

[MikeG]

11. How do you account for the ass whupping in the '74 playoffs?

Right before we won the Super Bowl the first time.

Remember how Madden said the Steelers shouldn't even show up?

Must have taken a lot of $$$ to win that one.

[autorank]

17. Okay, hmmm...

Well, you found one exception. I did a little research and found out that good friends of Mr. Rooney, not part of the Steelers organization itself, hired some of the 'criminal element' in Oakland. They, in turn, leaned on the Raider's trainer who put really good LSD in the Raider's Gatorade (which was instantly absorbed!) and that's why that first title game was so tilted. Yeah, thats it, I'm sure my memory is clear. Then the other times (except for our one win) it was the payoffs. Yaah, it all comes back to me.

[MikeG]

12. I intend to register at least 100 new people by the end of September.

In Pa. - A battleground state.

[speedoo]

14. It is not about jobs, or Iraq, or dumbya's lies....

It is about each of us doing everything we can to defeat dumbya.

I have decided to make that a personal priority. We have a little more than two months.... let's not look back and wish we had done more.

[Carla in Ca]

13. An interestng article

http://www.gregpalast.com/detail.cfm?artid=365&row=0

[oasis]

16. Farenheit 9/11 goes into homes in early October. The buzz will start again

and Chimpy's reaching for "My Pet Goat" gets re-examined.