jefferson_dem
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:25 AM
Original message |
Whoa! Intrade just posted a new betting market. Guess what it is... |
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That's right. Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen. The line has been creeping up and up for the past couple hours. http://www.intrade.com/
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marylanddem
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:26 AM
Response to Original message |
1. She'll be gone by day's end. |
cali
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:28 AM
Response to Reply #1 |
4. I don't think so. I think they'll wait and see if the furor dies down |
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and the bad news about Palin's past slows. I doubt it will and I think she'll be out by the end of next week. No way they'll anger the delegates at the RNC by yanking her this week.
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Joanne98
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:26 AM
Response to Original message |
2. WOW. Wasn't she worth 90 bucks the other day? |
dbmk
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Tue Sep-02-08 10:02 AM
Response to Reply #2 |
30. This is her antiworth, so to speak. |
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Edited on Tue Sep-02-08 10:06 AM by dbmk
So the numbers fit relatively well. People are willing to risk a 10 or 12-1 bet on her resigning/being removed as VP candidate it seems.
And while we are one the Intrade note, Obama made me 200 bucks the other day. :)
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tekisui
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:27 AM
Response to Original message |
3. Waiting for Slate to put up a "Death Watch". |
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When these questions get rolling, the candidate doesn't last.
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Teaser
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:28 AM
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quantass
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:29 AM
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renie408
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:29 AM
Response to Original message |
7. So, how bad does it hurt them if they pull Palin? Doesn't that really call |
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McCain's decision making into question? How do the move on from this and put together a cohesive ticket? How does the second choice for second in command have any credibility?
It seems to me that they HAVE to stick with Palin and ride it out. The comparisons to Miers would be really BAD for them.
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SmokingJacket
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:32 AM
Response to Reply #7 |
9. It might not hurt them more than her staying. |
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She has a very easy out: She wants to spend more time with her family. Everyone will congratulate her decision.
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mwb970
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:34 AM
Response to Reply #7 |
11. So does she hurt them more by staying or going? |
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Seems like a wash to me, they're toast either way. I sure wouldn't want to be one of those "Republican strategists" on the cable news shows today!
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Joanne98
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:35 AM
Response to Reply #7 |
12. The fundies will be furious. That's the election! We win. |
Bernardo de La Paz
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:37 AM
Response to Reply #12 |
14. Don't get overconfident. DU'ers were way overconfident in 2004. . . . nt |
trumad
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:39 AM
Response to Reply #14 |
16. We were also confident in 2006 |
joshcryer
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:38 AM
Response to Reply #7 |
15. Note the wording of it, "Palin withdrawal" |
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They will spin it as Palin withdrawing from the race. These InTrade things are really specific.
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Cosmocat
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:48 AM
Response to Reply #7 |
17. These jerkoffs don't care one bit about what is right ... |
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Or what makes sense. The think on a bizarre level that we don't even begin to comprehend.
IMO, she sticks for two reasons:
1) McCain won't pull the plug on her cause now it will be like he was being told to do it. 2) If he pulls the plug on her, he would have to bring Dobson himself on the ticket to even BEGIN to calm down the rage from the extreme lunatic fundies.
IMO, they "get behind her" and do what they do - find 100 different ways to try to turn this around on democrats and Obama. It is who they are, and what they do.
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Forkboy
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:57 AM
Response to Reply #7 |
21. That's the beauty of it all. |
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McCain is screwn either way. :evilgrin:
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flpoljunkie
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:30 AM
Response to Original message |
8. Hard to imagine hardass McCain admitting he made a mistake in not vetting Palin. |
WeDidIt
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:32 AM
Response to Original message |
10. That Question Was Asked On CNN This Morning |
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It's becoming a slow drumbeat now.
And with Keith out at MSRNC, all that's left is CNN.
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joshcryer
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:36 AM
Response to Original message |
13. Holy crap. She is so toast. If not, wow. |
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The fact that people are placing money, in our society of money on that is crazy.
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Alter Ego
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:49 AM
Response to Original message |
18. Foolish. This will never, ever happen and everyone who thinks it will is fooling themselves. |
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He can't dump her--that would be admitting a mistake, and we all know Republicans don't do that.
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MindMatter
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Tue Sep-02-08 08:02 AM
Response to Reply #18 |
22. Depends on what they find in Alaska |
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Obviously they never did any serious research on her.
They figure they can survive the baby thing, in fact that help them with all the fundies who have a martyr complex, but I'm being redundant.
The bigger concern would be other scandals that are likely to remain alive over the next month. The fact that she lawyered up yesterday is not a good sign. The McCain camp will have to calculate what the news cycle will be on the troopergate investigation. If it is post-election, then they'll ignore that one.
What else is there that could stay in the news? The secessionist background? Hard to see that one really having long legs.
If McCain dumps here, the election is over because that is an admission that he is incompetent, so he will only do this is he is facing a tsunami.
I don't see that happening. What I do see happening is for her to survive this week and to be pretty effective out on the stump. It will be up to the Obama camp to pursue her on a policy basis, not on the basis of supposed scandals. Her policies are horrendous, and they are fair game obviously.
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mopinko
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:54 AM
Response to Original message |
19. i think if they pull her, they will do it today or tomorrow. |
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they will want to put the new one up there before the end of the convention. unfortunately, they will spin this as- see people don't want to see a woman leaving her family to run for office. (which, even here, they don't)
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Douglas Carpenter
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Tue Sep-02-08 07:55 AM
Response to Original message |
20. recalling the Eagleton affair in 1972 and recognizing McCain's own stubbornness |
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I think it will drag on for awhile. It might be that like Eagleton the pressure will build up and build up for a few weeks and then she will have to go. But I would not count on it.
In 1972, the Democratic Party elders almost to a person (except from Missouri) were pressuring McGovern to ask Eagleton to step aside. In this case, the entire religious right which are the foot soldiers for the GOP will be absolutely enraged if Palin is forced off the ticket.
The religious right would certainly demand that one of their own, a fellow right-wing Protestant who is deeply embedded in the religious right, take her place. None of the likely names suggested so far would fit that bill. If Palin is forced off the ticket without being replaced by another rightwing fundamentalist Protestant, that would be devastating for the whole party.
Clearly McCain recognized when he chose Palin that normally speaking an out and out rightwing fundamentalist might not fly with most Americans even if it was popular with the extreme far right of the GOP. He must have thought that Palin could would be an exception because she is a woman who he perceived as having an independent and populist image. Since she was never actually vetted in any serious way, he completely miscalculated.
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WeDidIt
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Tue Sep-02-08 08:08 AM
Response to Original message |
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It's jumping up like a skyrocket!
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Old Codger
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Tue Sep-02-08 09:33 AM
Response to Original message |
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On who would be her replacement, from the looks of it in reality she was a last ditch choice , Rove said "no Lieberman" and every other possible choice said NO WAY... They weren't going to ride a losing horse....
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mnhtnbb
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Tue Sep-02-08 09:35 AM
Response to Original message |
25. Since McCain is known to be a gambling man, I wonder whether he'll place |
jakem
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Tue Sep-02-08 09:43 AM
Response to Reply #25 |
27. it wouldnt even be insider trading! |
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i think he has no idea what his campaign will do!
:rofl:
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mnhtnbb
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Tue Sep-02-08 09:52 AM
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JBoy
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Tue Sep-02-08 09:58 AM
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BlooInBloo
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Tue Sep-02-08 09:42 AM
Response to Original message |
26. I believe I picked Wednesday for her to be gone. |
grantcart
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Tue Sep-02-08 10:08 AM
Response to Original message |
31. missed your thread k and r |
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