O.K.

[Nicholas_J]

Kerry coming back in the electoral college lead.

Just a few days ago, DC's political report showed a collapse in Kerry's eletoral college lead. with Bush leading in the DC electoral college vote count for the first time in three months, but the latest calculations on DC now show Kerry in the lead again:


Kerry leads in 14 states with 189 EV

Bush leads in 19 states with 170 EV

There are 13 states too close to call with 162 Electoral Votes, but Kerry has a lead in 8 of these states for 95 Electoral Votes

Bush leads in 4 states for 58 EV

One state Kerry and Bush are equal in the polls for 9 EV.

There are five states with 17 EV in which no polls have been done but they are likely to break down this way:

2 states likely for Kerry for 6 electoral Votes

3 states likely for Bush with 11 EV

So right now the total EV for Kerry are 290 EV


Bush is carrying 239 Electoral Votes.

9 EV in oone state that in which Kerry and Bush are polling equal.

As the states are poling right now, Kerry is ahead inthe Electoral College by 51 electoral votes, Even if Bush picks up the one state in which eh and Kerry are equal, he does not have enough votes to pass Kerry's EV count. Bush has to somehow take half of the electoral votes that Kerry leads by in order to win. There are 64 days left until the election. Maybe, but this will be very difficult to do.


http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

The other electoral vote projections have recently showed a period in which Bush was briefly ahead, or zvery close to Kerry, but these projections have started reflecting similar increases in Kerrys lead, and they reflect erry with a roughly a 50 EV lead:

http://www.ospolitics.org/blog/archives/2004/06/24/electoral_.php

[Cha]

1. "O.K.", indeed!

Polls could drive us nuts between now an Nov 2!

[Zynx]

2. They will swing back and forth. Start caring about them around 9/15.